10/05/12 08:10 AM EDT

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – October 5, 2012

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 20 points or -1.05% downside to 1446 and 0.31% upside to 1466.

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

FLOWS – they’ve convinced me I can trade this tape w/ a bullish bias, but they haven’t convinced The People; Equity Fund Flows negative for the 3rd consecutive wk despite the US stock market at 4.5 yr highs (Lipper data had outflows of another -$2.4B wk-over-wk vs -$1.3B last); no trust = no volume.

ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 10/04 NYSE 1384
- Increase versus the prior day’s trading of -2
VOLUME: on 10/04 NYSE 674.72
- Increase versus prior day’s trading of 1.32%
VIX: as of 10/04 was at 14.55
- Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -5.70%
- Year-to-date decrease of -37.82%
SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 10/04 closed at 1.58
- Down from the day prior at 1.93

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

TED SPREAD: as of this morning 25.09
3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
10-Year: as of this morning 1.68%

Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.67%

YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.44

Up from prior day’s trading at 1.43

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

8:30 am: Non-farm Payrolls change, Sept. est. 115k (prior 96k)
Change in Private Payrolls, Sept. est. 130k (prior 103k)
Change in Manufacturing Payrolls, Sept. est. 0k (prior -15k)
Unemployment Rate, Sept. est. 8.2% (prior 8.1%)
10:00am: Fed’s Dudley at conference in New York
11:00am: Fed’s Duke speaks in New York on neighborhood stabilization
1pm: Baker Hughes rig count
3:00pm: Consumer credit, Aug. est. $7.5b (prior -$3.276b)

GOVERNMENT:

Most provisions of FCC rule requiring cable companies to share programming with competitors lapse on this date
Obama campaigns in Fairfax, Va.; Cleveland
Romney campaigns in Abingdon, Va.; St. Petersburg, Fla.

WHAT TO WATCH:

Jobless rate probably climed as US employers limited hiring
Jobless data seen aiding Romney if rates soars from 8.1%
EU doubts on deficit cutting may hinder Spain’s path to bailout
BOJ refrains from more stimulus as political pressure mounts
Zynga cuts forecast for FY adj. Ebitda and bookings
OCBC, CIMB said to mull bids for GE’s Bank of Ayudhya stake
FDA advisory panel meets on use of Optical Coherence Tomography technology for treatment of glaucoma
Sprint said to take fresh look at MetroPCS after Feb. talks
Paulson hedge funds said to further cut 2012 losses in Sept.
Credit Suisse sued by US regulator over faulty MBS’s
California refiners ration gasoline as prices soar to record
UnitedHealth said in talks with Brazil’s Amil Participacoes
Hewlett-Packard’s long-term ratings may be cut by Moody’s
Palo Alto Networks said to be readying secondary stock offering
G-7, IMF Meeting, Nobel Prizes, Sandusky: Week Ahead Oct. 6-13

EARNINGS:

Constellation Brands (STZ), 7:31am, $0.54

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

OIL – bubbles trade like this as they are popping, violently; not a shocker to see Oil meltup alongside the Euro yesterday; neither should it surprise you that Oil is back down this morn alongside the same. Our immediate-term TRADE duration correlation b/t USD and WTIC = -0.78.

Gold Seen Advancing After Reaching 10-Month High on Stimulus
Gold Traders More Bullish as Holdings Reach Record: Commodities
Palm Oil Stockpiles in Malaysia Set for Record on Production
Copper Swings Between Gains and Declines Before U.S. Jobs Report
Rubber Drops to Pare Fifth Weekly Gain as BOJ Holds Off Stimulus
Robusta Coffee Falls to One-Week Low on Stockpiles; Cocoa Climbs
Iron-Ore Swaps Fall 0.2% in London Trading, Clarkson Data Show
Oil’s Best Second Half to Hand OPEC $1 Trillion: Energy Markets
Soybeans Fall 0.2% to $15.4775 a Bushel, Erasing Earlier Gains
Oil May Fall as U.S. Crude Production Increases, Survey Shows
Ivory Coast Cocoa Farmers to Put Pay Raise in Crop Production
Silver Set to Beat Gold on QE3 in 2011 Re-Run: Chart of the Day
Savers Push $374 Billion U.S. Utility Industry to Shift: Energy
Palm Oil Climbs as Plunge to Three-Year Low Spurs Import Demand

CURRENCIES

EURO – big up move yesterday so we re-shorted the EUR/USD just inside of our long-term TAIL risk line of $1.31; Greece +3.6% this morning after telling the world they lied again (so they need more bailout moneys); Spain’s bailout is Rumor Off, for now, as the IBEX remains bearish TRADE (7903 resistance).