TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – October 5, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 20 points or -1.05% downside to 1446 and 0.31% upside to 1466.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
FLOWS – they’ve convinced me I can trade this tape w/ a bullish bias, but they haven’t convinced The People; Equity Fund Flows negative for the 3rd consecutive wk despite the US stock market at 4.5 yr highs (Lipper data had outflows of another -$2.4B wk-over-wk vs -$1.3B last); no trust = no volume.
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 10/04 NYSE 1384
- Increase versus the prior day’s trading of -2
- VOLUME: on 10/04 NYSE 674.72
- Increase versus prior day’s trading of 1.32%
- VIX: as of 10/04 was at 14.55
- Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -5.70%
- Year-to-date decrease of -37.82%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 10/04 closed at 1.58
- Down from the day prior at 1.93
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 25.09
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.68%
- Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.67%
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.44
- Up from prior day’s trading at 1.43
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)
- 8:30 am: Non-farm Payrolls change, Sept. est. 115k (prior 96k)
- Change in Private Payrolls, Sept. est. 130k (prior 103k)
- Change in Manufacturing Payrolls, Sept. est. 0k (prior -15k)
- Unemployment Rate, Sept. est. 8.2% (prior 8.1%)
- 10:00am: Fed’s Dudley at conference in New York
- 11:00am: Fed’s Duke speaks in New York on neighborhood stabilization
- 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count
- 3:00pm: Consumer credit, Aug. est. $7.5b (prior -$3.276b)
GOVERNMENT:
- Most provisions of FCC rule requiring cable companies to share programming with competitors lapse on this date
- Obama campaigns in Fairfax, Va.; Cleveland
- Romney campaigns in Abingdon, Va.; St. Petersburg, Fla.
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Jobless rate probably climed as US employers limited hiring
- Jobless data seen aiding Romney if rates soars from 8.1%
- EU doubts on deficit cutting may hinder Spain’s path to bailout
- BOJ refrains from more stimulus as political pressure mounts
- Zynga cuts forecast for FY adj. Ebitda and bookings
- OCBC, CIMB said to mull bids for GE’s Bank of Ayudhya stake
- FDA advisory panel meets on use of Optical Coherence Tomography technology for treatment of glaucoma
- Sprint said to take fresh look at MetroPCS after Feb. talks
- Paulson hedge funds said to further cut 2012 losses in Sept.
- Credit Suisse sued by US regulator over faulty MBS’s
- California refiners ration gasoline as prices soar to record
- UnitedHealth said in talks with Brazil’s Amil Participacoes
- Hewlett-Packard’s long-term ratings may be cut by Moody’s
- Palo Alto Networks said to be readying secondary stock offering
- G-7, IMF Meeting, Nobel Prizes, Sandusky: Week Ahead Oct. 6-13
EARNINGS:
- Constellation Brands (STZ), 7:31am, $0.54
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
OIL – bubbles trade like this as they are popping, violently; not a shocker to see Oil meltup alongside the Euro yesterday; neither should it surprise you that Oil is back down this morn alongside the same. Our immediate-term TRADE duration correlation b/t USD and WTIC = -0.78.
- Gold Seen Advancing After Reaching 10-Month High on Stimulus
- Gold Traders More Bullish as Holdings Reach Record: Commodities
- Palm Oil Stockpiles in Malaysia Set for Record on Production
- Copper Swings Between Gains and Declines Before U.S. Jobs Report
- Rubber Drops to Pare Fifth Weekly Gain as BOJ Holds Off Stimulus
- Robusta Coffee Falls to One-Week Low on Stockpiles; Cocoa Climbs
- Iron-Ore Swaps Fall 0.2% in London Trading, Clarkson Data Show
- Oil’s Best Second Half to Hand OPEC $1 Trillion: Energy Markets
- Soybeans Fall 0.2% to $15.4775 a Bushel, Erasing Earlier Gains
- Oil May Fall as U.S. Crude Production Increases, Survey Shows
- Ivory Coast Cocoa Farmers to Put Pay Raise in Crop Production
- Silver Set to Beat Gold on QE3 in 2011 Re-Run: Chart of the Day
- Savers Push $374 Billion U.S. Utility Industry to Shift: Energy
- Palm Oil Climbs as Plunge to Three-Year Low Spurs Import Demand
CURRENCIES
EURO – big up move yesterday so we re-shorted the EUR/USD just inside of our long-term TAIL risk line of $1.31; Greece +3.6% this morning after telling the world they lied again (so they need more bailout moneys); Spain’s bailout is Rumor Off, for now, as the IBEX remains bearish TRADE (7903 resistance).
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team