THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – October 5, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 20 points or -1.05% downside to 1446 and 0.31% upside to 1466. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


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EQUITY SENTIMENT:


FLOWS – they’ve convinced me I can trade this tape w/ a bullish bias, but they haven’t convinced The People; Equity Fund Flows negative for the 3rd consecutive wk despite the US stock market at 4.5 yr highs (Lipper data had outflows of another -$2.4B wk-over-wk vs -$1.3B last); no trust = no volume.

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 10/04 NYSE 1384
    • Increase versus the prior day’s trading of -2
  • VOLUME: on 10/04 NYSE 674.72
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 1.32%
  • VIX:  as of 10/04 was at 14.55
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -5.70%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -37.82%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 10/04 closed at 1.58
    • Down from the day prior at 1.93

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 25.09
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.68%
    • Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.67%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.44
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.43

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 8:30 am: Non-farm Payrolls change, Sept. est. 115k (prior 96k)
  • Change in Private Payrolls, Sept. est. 130k (prior 103k)
  • Change in Manufacturing Payrolls, Sept. est. 0k (prior -15k)
  • Unemployment Rate, Sept. est. 8.2% (prior 8.1%)
  • 10:00am: Fed’s Dudley at conference in New York
  • 11:00am: Fed’s Duke speaks in New York on neighborhood stabilization
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count
  • 3:00pm: Consumer credit, Aug. est. $7.5b (prior -$3.276b)

GOVERNMENT:

    • Most provisions of FCC rule requiring cable companies to share programming with competitors lapse on this date
    • Obama campaigns in Fairfax, Va.; Cleveland
    • Romney campaigns in Abingdon, Va.; St. Petersburg, Fla.

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Jobless rate probably climed as US employers limited hiring
  • Jobless data seen aiding Romney if rates soars from 8.1%
  • EU doubts on deficit cutting may hinder Spain’s path to bailout
  • BOJ refrains from more stimulus as political pressure mounts
  • Zynga cuts forecast for FY adj. Ebitda and bookings
  • OCBC, CIMB said to mull bids for GE’s Bank of Ayudhya stake
  • FDA advisory panel meets on use of Optical Coherence Tomography technology for treatment of glaucoma
  • Sprint said to take fresh look at MetroPCS after Feb. talks
  • Paulson hedge funds said to further cut 2012 losses in Sept.
  • Credit Suisse sued by US regulator over faulty MBS’s
  • California refiners ration gasoline as prices soar to record
  • UnitedHealth said in talks with Brazil’s Amil Participacoes
  • Hewlett-Packard’s long-term ratings may be cut by Moody’s
  • Palo Alto Networks said to be readying secondary stock offering
  • G-7, IMF Meeting, Nobel Prizes, Sandusky: Week Ahead Oct. 6-13

EARNINGS:

    • Constellation Brands (STZ), 7:31am, $0.54

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

OIL – bubbles trade like this as they are popping, violently; not a shocker to see Oil meltup alongside the Euro yesterday; neither should it surprise you that Oil is back down this morn alongside the same. Our immediate-term TRADE duration correlation b/t USD and WTIC = -0.78.

  • Gold Seen Advancing After Reaching 10-Month High on Stimulus
  • Gold Traders More Bullish as Holdings Reach Record: Commodities
  • Palm Oil Stockpiles in Malaysia Set for Record on Production
  • Copper Swings Between Gains and Declines Before U.S. Jobs Report
  • Rubber Drops to Pare Fifth Weekly Gain as BOJ Holds Off Stimulus
  • Robusta Coffee Falls to One-Week Low on Stockpiles; Cocoa Climbs
  • Iron-Ore Swaps Fall 0.2% in London Trading, Clarkson Data Show
  • Oil’s Best Second Half to Hand OPEC $1 Trillion: Energy Markets
  • Soybeans Fall 0.2% to $15.4775 a Bushel, Erasing Earlier Gains
  • Oil May Fall as U.S. Crude Production Increases, Survey Shows
  • Ivory Coast Cocoa Farmers to Put Pay Raise in Crop Production
  • Silver Set to Beat Gold on QE3 in 2011 Re-Run: Chart of the Day
  • Savers Push $374 Billion U.S. Utility Industry to Shift: Energy
  • Palm Oil Climbs as Plunge to Three-Year Low Spurs Import Demand

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CURRENCIES


EURO – big up move yesterday so we re-shorted the EUR/USD just inside of our long-term TAIL risk line of $1.31; Greece +3.6% this morning after telling the world they lied again (so they need more bailout moneys); Spain’s bailout is Rumor Off, for now, as the IBEX remains bearish TRADE (7903 resistance).

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EUROPEAN MARKETS


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ASIAN MARKETS

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team