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HOPE VS. REALITY IN THE CHINESE PROPERTY MARKET

Takeaway: The Chinese property market is likely to remain under pressure, portending negatively for both Chinese and global economic growth.

SUMMARY BULLETS:

 

  • The Chinese property market is likely to remain under pressure over the intermediate term, which, as a result of fixed capital formation equating to just under half of Chinese GDP, portends negatively for both Chinese and global economic growth.
  • Illiquidity on Chinese property developer balance sheets is accelerating, a phenomenon reflected in their recent actions (accelerating debt issuance), market prices for their equity and throughout broader sector data. This could spell an incremental leg down in Chinese property prices if they are broadly forced to slash prices to help clear the market.
  • Additionally, we believe the resolve of Chinese policymakers to continue combating “overly high prices” and speculative demand warrants further caution with regards to any expectations for both prices and transactions in the Chinese property market over the intermediate term.
  • We’re not currently in the camp that China is careening towards a banking crisis; we are, however, flagging the risk that a potential broad-based deterioration of credit quality across the Chinese financial system is likely to keep Chinese policymakers focused on quashing any signs of a property price bubble in a proactive,  not Western-style reactive, manner.
  • Rather than reflate now and risk an epic economic and financial market collapse at some point in not-too-distant future, Chinese policymakers are likely attempting to engineer a soft landing/smooth transition to a more sustainable growth model.

 

In continuing with the themes of today’s Early Look (i.e. the Manic Media and the Chinese economy), we highlight the following headline from yesterday morning:

 

“Chinese developers led junk bond sales in Asia to a five-month high in September as speculation the world’s second-biggest economy will ease housing curbs and boost stimulus measures caused yields to drop to a record low.” (Bloomberg)

 

The articles goes on to describe the recent surge in Chinese property developer international debt issuance (10x MoM to $1.15 billion) is an indication of Chinese property developers front-running a relaxation of the existing policies designed to curb speculation in China’s property market, citing Premier Jiabao’s recent statement that the curbs have achieved “obvious” results as an indication that Vice Premier Li Keqiang will be inclined to ease the measures shortly after taking control of the premiership early next year.

 

We couldn’t disagree more with this interpretation. From our vantage point, we view the recent acceleration of debt issuance by Chinese property developers as a function of increasing illiquidity on their balance sheets amid a slowing sales and declining price environment. Furthermore, if Chinese property developers were, in fact, gearing up for a meaningful acceleration in demand, it is unlikely that growth in Building Starts and Land Purchases would be contracting in the YTD as they are currently (i.e. they are not accelerating investments).

 

YTD growth in sales of buildings and floor space is trending at multi-year lows through AUG (+2.3% and -4.1% YoY, respectively):

 

HOPE VS. REALITY IN THE CHINESE PROPERTY MARKET - 1

 

HOPE VS. REALITY IN THE CHINESE PROPERTY MARKET - 2

 

On our 20-City Nominal Properly Price Index, Chinese property prices came in at -4.7% YoY in AUG – the second-lowest reading in the YTD (refer to the bottom of this note for our index methodology):

 

HOPE VS. REALITY IN THE CHINESE PROPERTY MARKET - 3

 

YTD growth in starts and land purchases is also trending at multi-year lows though AUG (-6.8% and -16.2% YoY, respectively):

 

HOPE VS. REALITY IN THE CHINESE PROPERTY MARKET - 4

 

HOPE VS. REALITY IN THE CHINESE PROPERTY MARKET - 5

 

Growth in total funds in the Chinese financial system available for property development is also trending at multi-year lows in the YTD through AUG (+9.1% YoY):

 

HOPE VS. REALITY IN THE CHINESE PROPERTY MARKET - 6

 

Rising illiquidity on Chinese property developer balance sheets could potentially lead to declining prices if they are broadly forced to slash prices to help clear the market. It’s worth noting that floor space under construction and floor space completed are trending up +15.6% and +20.2% in the YTD through AUG. Growth in incremental supply – both present and future – is far outpacing the growth in demand in the YTD.

 

 

HOPE VS. REALITY IN THE CHINESE PROPERTY MARKET - 7

 

HOPE VS. REALITY IN THE CHINESE PROPERTY MARKET - 8

 

As it relates to the slope of future demand in the Chinese property market, we continue to take our cues from Chinese policymakers and the unilateral nature of China’s command economy generally means what they say goes with regards to the ebb and flow of economic activity. While front running any changes on the margin in their policy stance can be helpful from a speculative perspective, we wouldn’t recommend doing so at the expense of ignoring their repeated attempts to temper market sentiment:

 

  • JUL 19:  China has told its local governments to keep a firm grip on the housing market to prevent property prices from rebounding, state media reported Friday, citing an urgent government notice. "Local authorities must strictly implement the property-control policies. Don't relax the control without authorization. Those that have loosened controls must rectify the policies right away," the state-run China Securities Journal cited the notice as saying. The notice was jointly issued Thursday by the Ministry of Land Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, according to the China Securities Journal, Shanghai Securities News and other state-run newspapers. (WSJ)
  • AUG 23: China’s government is studying further measures to strengthen its control of the property market, the official Xinhua News Agency reported yesterday, citing an official with the housing ministry. The government is “closely monitoring” changes in the real estate market and has ordered local governments not to relax property controls, the unidentified official with China’s Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development was quoted as saying in the Xinhua report. Easing policies by some local authorities were among problems that need “particular attention,” Xinhua reported on Aug. 17, citing findings from an inspection ordered by the State Council. China’s property market is expected to stay stable, the housing ministry official said in the Xinhua report. Most buyers in recent months are first-time home owners, according to the official. (Bloomberg Businessweek)
  • SEP 7: A senior official on Wednesday vowed to prevent rebounds in property prices in the second half of the year. “We will stabilize control measures to curb speculation and increase housing supplies, especially small- and mid-sized housing,” said Zhang Ping, head of the National Development and Reform Commission, in a report delivered at an ongoing bimonthly session of the national legislature. Xie pledged to promote property tax reforms on a trial basis and strictly implement differentiated taxation policies for property transactions. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has reiterated the country still needs to resolutely curb speculative property investment as controls on the real estate sector are still in a "critical period." Wen said that smooth progress in the affordable housing projects will provide important support in stabilizing property prices and consolidating the government's efforts to tame overly high home prices. (Xinhua)
  • SEP 23: Real estate prices in China are in no condition to rebound with the government firmly set to continue its regulation on the property market, said the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD). But the official also notes that negative factors do exists against a stable property market and that regulation over the sector is still at a crucial stage… Next, the government will continue to carry out its regulative policies to ensure implementation, said the official. Differential credit and taxation policies will continue to be implemented to curb speculative buying. More work will be done to enhance taxation over unsold properties and there will be an expansion of property tax pilot schemes, the official added. The Chinese government will also work to increase land supply and the stock of small and medium commercial properties. It will also improve market monitoring to make full preparations for a future price rebound, said the officials. (China Daily)

 

Net-net, it’s pretty easy to see where Chinese policymakers stand with regards to the future demand in China’s property market. Moreover, we think their resolve to continue combating “overly high prices” and speculative demand warrants further caution with regards to any expectations for both prices and transactions in the Chinese property market over the intermediate term. Additionally, QE3-inspired commodity price inflation has caused monetary easing expectations to be priced completely out of the Chinese interest rate market from a NTM perspective.

 

HOPE VS. REALITY IN THE CHINESE PROPERTY MARKET - 9

 

As an aside, we were keen to point out the undeniable negative impact of QE3 on global GROWTH (via accelerating INFLATION and decelerating POLICY easing) in the following two notes (hyperlinked for your reviewing ease):

 

 

The diminishing outlook for “stimulus” in China – particularly on the monetary easing and property market regulation fronts – led to a proactively-predictable selloff across property developer stocks in recent months. Notably, this chart does not rhyme with the pollyannaish expectations for the impact of QE3 in the US equity market:

 

HOPE VS. REALITY IN THE CHINESE PROPERTY MARKET - 10

 

With Chinese real GDP growth trending so weak in the YTD (+7.6% YoY in 2Q was the lowest since 1Q09) and expectations for future growth making lower-highs in the YTD (Bloomberg Consensus 2013 estimate at +8.1% YoY currently, down from a peak of +8.6% in MAR), it’s natural to ponder why Chinese policymakers appear so content to let their economy slow to a relative crawl.

 

The most logical answer that comes to mind is official fear of social unrest. As such, keeping a lid on inflation and maintaining economic stability are two of the primary goals of the Communist Party agenda. In on the inflation front, it’s easy to see why they would be concerned with prices in China’s residential market (~80% of total supply; ~90% of sales) that 74.3% of polled Chinese households find “too high to accept” (per the PBOC’s latest quarterly monetary policy report). Furthermore, the intense government focus on increasing the supply of affordable housing also lends credence to this view.

 

On the economic stability front, we think Chinese policymakers have been keen to recognize the lessons learned from the US housing bubble and its subsequent bust, which led to the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis. US employment remains structurally impaired as a result and we think Chinese policymakers are carefully seeking to avoid this fate.

 

While we certainly aren’t calling for a Chinese banking crisis (nor do we think their property market is a bubble in the traditional sense), we do find it worth noting that the total amount of loans on Chinese bank balance sheets have more than doubled since end of 2008, creating ample room for adverse selection as well as a future upswing in non-performing loans, which are at historic lows as a percentage of total loans. Additionally, the memories of shelling out a total of $650 billion (44.7% of 2002 GDP) to bail out the country’s fragile banking system during the years of the late ‘90s/early ‘00s may still be potent in the minds of Chinese policymakers (the top brass has been in power for a decade).

 

HOPE VS. REALITY IN THE CHINESE PROPERTY MARKET - 11

 

HOPE VS. REALITY IN THE CHINESE PROPERTY MARKET - 12

 

Broadly speaking, bank credit is just shy of historic peaks as a ratio of the Chinese economy and the 2,000-plus basis point upswing from 2008 to 2009 lends credence to the view that the Chinese policymakers (via state-directed lending at policy banks) may have levered the economy too quickly in an attempt to reflate growth in the wake of the GFC – an event which led to an acceleration of inflation as well as rising risk of an NPL cycle over the long term. It is our understanding that this is a view increasingly shared by Chinese policymakers atop the central planning hierarchy (and perhaps one of the primary reasons they have been reluctant to implement a commensurate stimulus package in the YTD):

 

[The] 4-trillion yuan package of state spending and tax cuts announced in 2008 stoked inflation and sparked concern local governments took on more debt than they can afford.”

– Xu Lin speaking to reporters at Peking University on SEP 17, 2012

 

HOPE VS. REALITY IN THE CHINESE PROPERTY MARKET - 13

 

Again, we’re not currently in the camp that China is careening towards a banking crisis; we are, however, flagging the risk that a potential broad-based deterioration of credit quality across the Chinese financial system is likely to keep Chinese policymakers focused on quashing any signs of a property price bubble in a proactive,  not Western-style reactive, manner. Furthermore, the credit risk embedded in a [potential] severe property price bust is not well diversified across the Chinese financial system – meaning the Chinese government would ultimately be on the hook for any damages (net corporate bond issuance was a mere 15.4% of the aggregate net bank loan and trust financing extended in 1H12 – a similar ratio to full-year 2011).

 

With fixed capital formation at 46.2% of Chinese GDP, we would be remiss to single out property developers as the only industry at risk; there are a handful of other industries such as steelmaking (Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.?) and construction equipment manufacturing (Sany Heavy Industry?) that may also experience a structural erosion in credit quality. A chart of Chinese steel products prices agrees with this view:

 

HOPE VS. REALITY IN THE CHINESE PROPERTY MARKET - 14

 

Perhaps that’s why Chinese policymakers were keen to focus their 12th Five-Year Plan on rebalancing the country’s economic growth model, calling for a structurally-slower pace in the process. Rather than reflate now and risk an epic economic and financial market collapse at some point in not-too-distant future, Chinese policymakers are likely attempting to engineer a soft landing/smooth transition to a more sustainable growth model (i.e. the Politburo ≠ the Fed). Even though they explicitly told us that’s precisely what they were going to do, it’s just now all starting to make sense in the context of the “missing stimulus bazooka”.

 

Darius Dale

Senior Analyst

 

THE HEDGEYE 20-CITY NOMINAL PROPERTY PRICE INDEX

As you probably are aware, the National Bureau of Statistics pulled the plug on its monthly nominal property price data back at the end of 2010, leaving analysts and investors alike searching for clues to the severity of China’s policy-induced property market downturn. Until now, we had been content with analyzing the monthly 70-city MoM data, but the need to contextualize those sequential changes became too great to ignore. As such, we’ve combined price per sq.m² data from China Real Estate Information Corp. (one of China’s top real estate data providers) to formulate an average market price of 20 of China’s busiest property markets.

 

The caveat here is that their data series start in JAN ’11, making historic context hard to come by. To solve for this constraint, we indexed our new series to China Economic Information Network price indices going back to 1998 (though 2010). Our methods aren’t perfect, as both data sets aren’t necessarily apples-to-apples, but it’s as good a long-term read on the nominal price level of the Chinese property market as any we have access to at the current juncture.


ECB Meets The EUR/USD

Our chart below showcases the performance of the EUR/USD currency pair over the past year. You can easily spot some of the big events that occurred in 2012: the turmoil of Spain and Italy over the summer, the late July "whatever it takes" comments by Mario Draghi and of course, the "unlimited' buying remark made on September 6 that really kicked the Euro into high gear.

 

It reminds us of charts we've displayed in the past showing Bernanke's effects on various markets. This is just the European version.

 

ECB Meets The EUR/USD - eurusd


Idea Alert: Shorting FXE

Takeaway: Fundamentals and the challenges inherent in the Union of uneven states suggest our $1.31 EUR/USD resistance level will hold.

Positions in Europe: Short EUR/USD (FXE); Long German Bonds (BUNL)

 

Keith added FXE to our Real-Time Positions at $129.13. FXE’s TRADE range is $127 – 129 with a TAIL resistance of $131.

 

With regard to the trade Keith said: “Europe didn't cut rates today. But they will, again, eventually. This is the Currency War. Immediate-term TRADE overbought within a bearish long-term TAIL.”

 

Idea Alert: Shorting FXE - bb. eur

 

We’ve written a number of notes on Europe this week. Certainly at any moment the EUR/USD can be influenced by numerous factors, however below are the larger forces we think are acting on the cross:

 

POLITICS


There is great political uncertainty in Europe right now, which lends support that the EUR/USD will not cross our quantitative long term TAIL line of resistance at $1.31. The market consternation centers around:

  • If and when Spain will seek a sovereign bailout
  • The extent to which the ESM can directly recapitalize troubled banks, and
  • The terms around setting up a fiscal and banking union

On a banking union we’ve already seen push back from stronger nations like Germany to “blindly” accept this risk (ie without conditions to benefit itself and/or limit reduction in its credit rating) and coordination to set up the logistics of a fiscal union inducing a protracted drag in this decision. 

 

To the point on timing, ECB Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen said on Monday that the ECB will not rush through “half-baked” plans for a new pan-European supervisor.

 

Also, remember that German Chancellor Merkel and Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann continue to butt heads on many fiscal issues. Eurobonds is one topic that Weidmann remains vehemently against while Merkel has not ruled out their use. However, if the Eurozone is to move to a fiscal union, Eurobonds are simply a natural extension of a fiscally united union. This is one hot topic to monitor as we move through the calendar year.

 

NO CHINESE SAVIOR


Interestingly, this week, Jin Liqun, chairman of the supervisory board of the China Investment Corporation (China’s $480B sovereign wealth fund), said that CIC will not buy bonds issued by debt-ridden Eurozone countries until their fundamental problems are solved. This point is of note because some over the last 12 months have suggested there’s a reduction in “risk” across Europe given the willingness of the Chinese to step in and support the region. Further, Jin said:

 

“The mass demonstrations in Greece and in Spain against fiscal tightening do not bode well for attracting investment into their debt… It's not realistic to expect any Chinese investor, CIC included, to buy the bonds, which are not safe…If the euro zone would issue a Eurobond backed by all of the countries - it is more attractive to international investors. Backed by all of the countries means backed by the core members."

 

FUNDAMENTALS


European Manufacturing and Services PMIs for September (released on Monday and Wednesday, respectively) have shown little to no improvement over the last 7-8 straight months, stuck below the 50 line indicating contraction (see chart below).

 

Idea Alert: Shorting FXE - bb. pmis

 

The next immediate political catalyst for the cross is the Eurogroup being held next week in Luxembourg on October 8-9, however we do not expect any definitive action to be agreed upon. Taken together, we are fully aware of the powers of Central Bankers to drive the EUR/USD. That said, the fundamental data from Europe keeps us grounded in our opinion that despite best efforts from Eurocrats to craft rescue programs, we think slowing growth, rising inflation, and the structural flaws inherent in creating a Eurozone will continue to present challenges that should prevent appreciation of the EUR/USD above our TAIL line of resistance at $1.31.  

 

Matthew Hedrick

Senior Analyst


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The Romney Rally: S&P 500 Levels, Refreshed

POSITIONS: 9 LONGS, 5 SHORTS

 

I leaned longer again on the open, covering CAT and buying some of our favorite long ideas. The signal is the signal. I think I’ve been as flexible adhering to leaning long or short in the last 3 weeks as I have all year.

 

Across risk management durations, here are the lines that matter to me most:

 

1.       Immediate-term TRADE resistance = 1463

2.       Immediate-term TRADE support = 1448

3.       Intermediate-term TREND support = 1419

 

In other words, what was resistance yesterday (1448) is now support. That changed, so I did. And there are no rules against selling some at 1463 ahead of tomorrow’s employment report either. That’s the market we are in. Romney just changed the probabilities of Obama winning too.

 

#EarningsSlowing is bearish. Potential for political change (was with Obama in 2009 too) is bullish.

 

Keep managing the risk of this 1419-1474 (Bernanke Top) range.

 

Keith McCullough

CEO

 

The Romney Rally: S&P 500 Levels, Refreshed - kmchart1


MAR Q3 REPORT CARD

Takeaway: Despite the beat, lodging demand is softening.

In an effort to evaluate performance and as a follow up to our YouTube, we compare how the quarter measured up to previous management commentary and guidance.

 

 

MAR Q3 REPORT CARD - mar r

 

OVERALL

  • WORSE:  MAR’s outlook, while still bullish,  is "modestly" weaker, particularly on North America, relative to a few months ago. 

 

COMPANY-WIDE COMMENTARY

 

SG&A

  • BETTER:  G&A came in $23MM below guidance.  There was a ~$4-5MM benefit from better cost controls, $5MM net benefit from a litigation settlement less higher legal expenses, and about a $12-15MM benefit from lower than anticipated workout costs.
  • PREVIOUSLY: “We expect general and administrative expenses will total roughly $155 million in the third quarter, largely related to normal inflation and costs associated with some property workout.”

INCENTIVE FEE GROWTH

  • LITTLE WORSE:  Incentive had their best Q of 2012 in 3Q, up 24% YoY.  YTD they are up 17%. Marriott did not revise full year guidance but did say that they expect less growth in YoY results for 4Q.  This implies that results will come in a little below 20% for the full year.
  • PREVIOUSLY: “I think we still expect in full-year 2012 that our incentive fees will be growing about 20%.”

ROOM OPENINGS

  • SLIGHTLY WORSE:  Including the acquisition of Gaylord, which will add 8,100 rooms to the system in 4Q, MAR expects to open 28,000 rooms in 2012—basically just below the low end of prior guidance.
  • PREVIOUSLY: “We've also reduced our room opening expectations a bit for 2012. In the first quarter, we noted slippage in opening dates from 2012 to 2013 for some new hotels in Asia and the Middle East. In the second quarter, the slippage continued in these markets as well as with a few projects in Mexico. We continue to see a lot of conversion opportunities around the world but they too are taking a bit longer as some projects require more extensive renovation before flagging. As a result, today we expect to open 20,000 to 25,000 rooms in 2012. Since this reduction is largely timing”

COURTYARD SALE IMPACT

  • LITTLE BETTER:  Marriott recognized $7MM of deferred fee base revenue vs. guidance of $5MM
  • PREVIOUSLY:  “With this transaction, Marriot expects to recognize about $5 million in fee revenue for deferred base fees”

LEVERAGE TARGET

  • SAME:  No change in their leverage targets
  • PREVIOUSLY: “We will continue to manage our leverage to 3 to 3.25 times debt-to-EBITDA. So that's what we are targeting for.”

 

NORTH AMERICA SPECIFIC

 

GROUP BOOKINGS

  • SAME:  Group revenue rose 8% in 3Q for comparable properties
  • PREVIOUSLY: “In North America, year-to-date the Marriott brand's special corporate revenue has been strong, up over 8%; group revenue rose 7% year-to-date and group bookings for the second half are even stronger.”

DC OUTLOOK

  • SAME:  While government per diems will stay flat in 2013, Marriott expects to substitute much of this business with better mix.  MAR expects DC REVPAR to grow at a mid-single digit rate in 2013.
  • PREVIOUSLY: “Here there is good news; interest in the upcoming election is starting to drive political business to the city. Group revenue bookings in DC for the Marriott brand are up 10% for the second half of 2012 and 16% for 2013. 2013 should be a good year overall in this market but we'll have to see how government demand shakes out. Next year's government per diems will be set this August and we will be watching this carefully.”

GROUP BOOKINGS OUTLOOK

  • SLIGHTLY WORSE:  Group revenues on the books for 2013 for the Marriott brand in North America are up over 7% with rates up nearly 4%.  Marriott also said bookings in 3Q for the next twelve months were down 5% but up 10% for business two years out since they are running out of capacity.  Marriott reiterated that they are particularly bullish on North America and expect NA systemwide RevPAR of 5-7% in 2013.  Special corporate rate negotiations are still on pace for high-single digit increases. 
  • PREVIOUSLY: “Looking ahead for the second half of the year, group booking pace is up 10%, and 2013 booking pace is up 8%.  We are very bullish about pricing in North America in 2013. For group business on the books for next year, room rates are running up 4%. On the transient side, we are targeting price increases for special corporate business at a high single-digit rate on average.”

 

INTERNATIONAL COMMENTARY

 

ME REVPAR GROWTH

  • SAME: Middle East RevPAR was strong in 3Q on the back of easy comps and good results at their Red Sea resorts.  4Q is expected to be healthy at mid-to-high single digit increases but moderate from 3Q levels.
  • PREVIOUSLY: Occupancies at our hotels in the Middle East improved compared to last year's Arab spring results. However, travel wholesalers still aren't jumping back into the market. So, we are likely to continue to see volatility here for a while longer… Middle East ought to be performing reasonably well as the year goes along.”

 EUROPEAN REVPAR

  • BETTER: European RevPAR increased 3.8% in 3Q and is expected to increase in the low single-digit range in 4Q
  • PREVIOUSLY: “We would think Europe will continue to tick along around of that 3% sort of number. Q3 maybe a bit better because of the Olympics and Q4 maybe a bit worse because we don't have anything like the Olympics, which is likely to help Q4, but still kind of the same rates that we've seen.”

CHINA PERFORMANCE

  • SAME:  China has been relatively stable since last quarter’s guidance
  • PREVIOUSLY:
    • “Growth in China moderated in the second quarter but continued to deliver outstanding performance, with constant dollar REVPAR up 8%.”
    • “China, we've been… 10 or above year-to-date, I suspect the right set of expectations would be as high single-digit as opposed to a double-digit growth rate for the balance of the year reflecting – probably a somewhat more modest growth rate there.”

Round Won

Takeaway: Solid win for Romney last night with Big Bird the key loser. Poll sampling questions suggest this race is very tight.

Admittedly, we borrowed the title for this note from the current headline on the Drudge Report.  The title is a pretty succinct summary of last night’s debate.  In effect, Romney won, but it was only the first debate.  Nonetheless, this was a critical debate for Romney and he delivered.

 

The most immediate assessment of Romney’s debate performance was on Intrade, the electronic predictive market.  The contract in which people can bet on the probability that Romney will win the Presidency increased more than 10 points in the last 24 hours and is currently trading at just over 34%.  Based on our analysis this was the most significant one day move on Intrade this election cycle.  The caveat being that the odds that Obama is re-elected are still 2:1 in Obama’s favor.

 

Round Won - A

 

The most noted response on the debate was probably from Chris Mathews (not necessarily a Hedgeye fan boy) who all but blamed Obama’s performance on the fact that the President doesn’t watch enough MSNBC.  We are not sure we would agree with that assessment, but we did want to highlight one exchange that characterized much of the debate, which is the following:

 

“But don't forget, you put $90 billion, like 50 years' worth of breaks, into — into solar and wind, to Solyndra and Fisker and Tester and Ener1. I mean, I had a friend who said you don't just pick the winners and losers, you pick the losers, all right? So this — this is not — this is not the kind of policy you want to have if you want to get America’s energy secure.

 

The second topic, which is you said you get a deduction for taking a plant overseas. Look, I've been in business for 25 years. I have no idea what you're talking about. I maybe need to get a new accountant.”

 

To us this was the point when Romney pushed Obama very hard and Obama had a very feeble come back and looked more annoyed than anything.  The unstated message was that Obama really doesn’t know what he is doing.  The question of course is whether this characterization will stick and provide Romney a sustained bounce.

 

As of yet, none of the polls will have the impact of last night’s debate, but if we look across a number of electoral factors, Romney remains solidly in the hole.  First, on the national poll aggregate Obama is still up +3.1.  This is narrower than the +5.9 spread that Obama had four years ago over McCain but it is still a meaningful edge.  Second, in terms of the Electoral College math, based on state level polls, the President appears to have 269 Electoral College votes locked up.  Finally, based on our Hedgeye Election Indicator, Obama has a 62.4% probability of getting re-elected.  Net-net, the race is tight, but Obama has the pervasive advantage.

 

Thus, while the debate last night was a clear victory for Romney, it is not clear that one debate will be enough given Obama’s advantage on many factors.  To the extent that Obama’s strategy is to play good enough defense so as to not lose the lead, he probably accomplished that last night.  The question from here for the Obama team is whether a respectable defense is enough through the duration of the campaign.  Based on the current polls, it just might be, but the key remaining wild card is that polls are inaccurate and that this race is potentially much closer than many suggest.

 

We’ve touched on just this point a number of times and Karl Rove reemphasized it this morning in an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal.  Rove compared the current election to the race between Reagan and Carter in 1980 when he was the director of the Texas Victory Committee for Reagan-Bush.  Specifically, on Oct. 13th Gallup put the race nationally at Carter 44% and Reagan 40%.  Two weeks later, this gap widened to Carter 47% and Reagan 39%.  Ultimately, Reagan won by more than 10%.  The lesson being that while polls are instructive, they are far from scientific and have at times been very misleading.

 

In 2012 a key issue with polls appears to be sampling.  Many polls model turnout levels that compare to 2008, a record year for Democrat participation.  In reality, many measures of voter enthusiasm and voter ID suggest that the turnout between the parties could be much more comparable to 2004 than 2008.  As Dick Morris put it:

 

“People need to understand that the polling this year is the worst it has ever been.”

 

The most recent example of poll skew came from a series of Quinnipiac polls.  The most prominent was a poll they did for CBS / New York Times on Florida.  The poll showed Obama up by 9% in Florida.  Coincidentally, or not, the poll also had 9% more Democrats than Republicans represented in the poll.

 

We are not ready to throw out all polls. Realistically, there are a number of polls that do appear to be oversampling Democrats based more on a 2008 turnout profile.  There is a website that attempts to unskew national polls.  For your edification, we’ve included their most recent analysis in a table below.  For what it’s worth, they believe Romney is actually up +2.6.  Ironically, that may not be news the Romney camp wants right now as the Governor has upped his game considerably as the underdog.

 

Round Won - B

 

 

Daryl G. Jones

Director of Research

 

 


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