TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – October 4, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 18 points or -0.96% downside to 1437 and 0.76% upside to 1462.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 10/03 NYSE -2
- Decrease versus the prior day’s trading of 196
- VOLUME: on 10/03 NYSE 665.91
- Increase versus prior day’s trading of 11.68%
- VIX: as of 10/03 was at 15.43
- Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -1.78%
- Year-to-date decrease of -34.06%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 10/03 closed at 2.55
- Down from the day prior at 2.56
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 26.63
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.63%
- Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.61%
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.40
- Up from prior day’s trading at 1.38
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)
- 7am: Bank of England announces interest rates
- 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts Y/y, Sept. (prior -36.9%)
- 7:45am: ECB announces interest rates
- 8:30am: ECB’s Draghi holds news conference
- 8am: RBC Consumer Outlook Index, Oct. (prior 50.4)
- 8:30am: Jobless Claims, Sept. 29 est. 370k (prior 359k)
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Sept. 30 (-39.6)
- 10am: Factory Orders, Aug. est. -5.9% (prior 2.8%)
- 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
- 10:30am: EIA natural gas storage change
- 11am: U.S. to announce plans for sale 3-yr, 10-yr, 30-yr debt
- 11am: Fed to purchase $1.75b-$2.25b notes due 2/15/2036-8/15/2042
- 2pm: Fed issues minutes of FOMC Meeting
- 8pm: Fed’s Bullard speaks in Memphis, Tennessee, on economy
GOVERNMENT:
- SEC member Daniel Gallagher, three officials from agency’s trading and markets unit speak at Sifma market structure conference in New York. 8:45am
- Cheniere Energy, Royal Dutch Shell, GDF Suez join U.S. Energy Association at conference on global supply. 9am
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Euro-area, England central banks to keep interest rates at record lows, economists say
- U.S. same-store sales seen slowing in Sept. from August gains
- Romney debate tactics may put campaign against Obama ’back on track’
- U.S. shopping center demand slows as consumer spending stalls
- U.S. consumer credit delinquencies near 6-yr low, bankers say
- AT&T said to add first Nokia Windows 8 phone for US market
- Unilever said to put Skippy peanut butter brand up for sale
- Teva pulls depression drug generic after FDA says not same
- Spain meets maximum target at bond auction as 3-yr yield rises
- 3M scraps Avery label-unit deal as antitrust regulators balk
- Applied Materials to cut 9% of workforce amid slump
EARNINGS:
- International Speedway (ISCA) 7am, $0.08
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Oil Rises From Biggest Drop in Three Months on Syria Conflict
- Overlander Leads Sucden to Metals-Trading Dominance
- Morgan Stanley Backs Gold, Silver, Copper on Demand Outlook
- Palm Oil Set to Drop After Rebound on Indonesia Tax, Mistry Says
- Copper Gains in New York as Higher Equities Boost Demand Outlook
- Soybeans Gain a Second Day as Price Drop May Boost Import Demand
- Sugar Climbs to Seven-Week High on India’s Imports; Coffee Gains
- Pan Pacific Said to Offer 15% Cut in Copper Premium for China
- World Food Prices Jump to Six-Month High as Dairy Costs Rise
- Iron-Ore Swaps Rise 1.4% in London Trading, Clarkson Data Show
- Aluminum May Climb to $2,200 on Fibonacci: Technical Analysis
- Bottom in Coking Coal Price Rests on Supply and Demand Response
- Danube Decay Hinders Rhine Link to Leave Shippers Blue: Freight
- Gold Jumps in New York on Signs of India’s Demand, Weaker Dollar
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team
