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Takeaway: Eight reds and one green on a nine-factor fundamental model looks bad even before the poor quantitative setup.

We think COH is a short here. Yes, the brand is very good, but the company only scores positive on one of our nine-factor fundamental model that we include a summary of below. Eight negative factors is enough for us to be bearish across at least a TRADE and TREND duration. Add to that the current trading level (i.e. lousy quantitative setup) and it’s time to reinsert COH into the short side of our ledger.

To be clear, if Keith covers on red over the near-term, don’t wonder “But I thought McGough thought COH was a short?”  The answer is that over a TREND duration, I do. There is literally nothing to get excited about until next summer. Then there could be money to be made long…who knows. But until then, Keith will TRADE in and out as risk management levels suggest.

One might argue that the Street thinks it’s a short too, with short interest tripling since midsummer. But it still sits at only 5.5% of the float. Furthermore, of the 33 analysts that cover COH, there’s not a single Sell rating, and Buy ratings are near all time peaks. (Check out Nike – the stats are the exact opposite).

COH/Idea Alert: Eight is Enough - coh poduration

Coach Risk Management Levels

COH/Idea Alert: Eight is Enough - coh TTT chart 2

Coach Looking Risky In Our SIGMA Analysis

COH/Idea Alert: Eight is Enough - cohsigma4

Does ANYONE Hate It? You'd think that with its growth rate being cut by 80% it might have some more critics?

COH/Idea Alert: Eight is Enough - coh 4