TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – October 2, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 21 points or -1.00% downside to 1430 and 0.45% upside to 1451.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 10/01 NYSE 718
- Increase versus the prior day’s trading of -658
- VOLUME: on 10/01 NYSE 672.31
- Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -19.22%
- VIX: as of 10/01 was at 16.32
- Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 3.75%
- Year-to-date decrease of -30.26%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 10/01 closed at 1.68
- Down from the day prior at 2.01
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
TREASURIES – bonds still don’t seem to care about the daily flicker of S&P futures; the 10yr yield hasn’t moved more than a beep in the last 48hrs; long-bond remains in a Bullish Formation as 10yr yields look like they could easily test YTD lows.
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 27.42
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.63%
- Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.62%
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.40
- Up from prior day’s trading at 1.39
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)
- 9:45am: ISM New York, Sept. (prior 51.4)
- 11am: Fed to buy $1.75b-$2.25b Treasury debt due 2/15/2036-8/15/2042
- 11:30am: U.S. Treasury to sell 4-week bills
GOVERNMENT/POLITICS:
- House, Senate not in session
- Obama, Romney make preparations for first presidential debate tomorrow
- News conference on latest Quinnipiac poll. NPC. 10am
- SEC hosts discussion on automated-trading technologies. 10am
- FAA advisory panel holds second day of meetings to review air-traffic control procedures. National Harbor. 8:30am
- Early voting begins in Ohio
WHAT TO WATCH:
- U.S. auto sales seen advancing 9.5% in September
- SEC to investigate high-frequency trading
- Samsung says Apple iPhone 5 infringes eight patents in lawsuit
- Former SAC Capital manager tells FBI fund used insider information
- SAIC loses protest of $4.6b contract awarded to Lockheed
- Juniper said to cut 500 jobs to reduce costs amid competition
- U.S. retail sales growth may slow to 4.1% during holiday season
- Manhattan home inventory falls to 7-yr low
- Value Investing Congress includes presentations from David Einhorn
EARNINGS:
- Mosaic (MOS) 7am, $1.16
- Acuity Brands (AYI) 8:19am, $0.93
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Palm Oil Slumps Most Since October 2008 to Lowest in Three Years
- Rubber Bulls Back as Exporters Cut Most Since 2009: Commodities
- Soybeans Reach Lowest Price Since July on U.S. Harvest Progress
- Oil Trades Near One-Week High as U.S. Manufacturing Expands
- Gold Set to Gain for Second Day After Fed Renews Stimulus Pledge
- Cocoa Falls as Concerns Ease Over Ivory Coast Industry Changes
- Iron-Ore Swaps Little Changed as China Holidays Slow Trading
- Countries Must Refrain From Banning Food Exports, FAO Says
- Zinc Price Softens in 3Q on Surplus, 9.3% Rise Expected in 4Q
- Cargill to Stop Using Fuel-Inefficient Ships to Curb Emissions
- Nuclear Output Seen Falling to 3-Year Low on Refueling Shutdowns
- Rothschild’s Bashed Bumi Offers ‘Great Trade’: Chart of the Day
- Rubber May Advance 28% on Ichimoku Chart: Technical Analysis
- Copper May Gain for Fourth Day on Global Central-Bank Stimulus
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
EUROPE – after European Equities got slammed last wk (Spain and Italy -6% each), seeing day2 of the bounce; plenty of rumoring going around about when Spain asks for bailouts and reminds the world they’ve been lying about pretty much every number that matters #classy; should end well.
ASIAN MARKETS
JAPAN – top 3 economy in the world is now seeing both its stock market and economic data collide; after a bearish Tankan yesterday, Nikkei closed down again overnight, taking the draw-down since the global #GrowthSlowing top (March) to -14.3%; #KeyenesianEconomics.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team