THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – October 2, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 21 points or -1.00% downside to 1430 and 0.45% upside to 1451. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 10/01 NYSE 718
    • Increase versus the prior day’s trading of -658
  • VOLUME: on 10/01 NYSE 672.31
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -19.22%
  • VIX:  as of 10/01 was at 16.32
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 3.75%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -30.26%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 10/01 closed at 1.68
    • Down from the day prior at 2.01 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


TREASURIES – bonds still don’t seem to care about the daily flicker of S&P futures; the 10yr yield hasn’t moved more than a beep in the last 48hrs; long-bond remains in a Bullish Formation as 10yr yields look like they could easily test YTD lows.

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 27.42
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.63%
    • Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.62%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.40
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.39

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 9:45am: ISM New York, Sept. (prior 51.4)
  • 11am: Fed to buy $1.75b-$2.25b Treasury debt due 2/15/2036-8/15/2042
  • 11:30am: U.S. Treasury to sell 4-week bills

GOVERNMENT/POLITICS:

    • House, Senate not in session
    • Obama, Romney make preparations for first presidential debate tomorrow
    • News conference on latest Quinnipiac poll. NPC. 10am
    • SEC hosts discussion on automated-trading technologies. 10am
    • FAA advisory panel holds second day of meetings to review air-traffic control procedures. National Harbor. 8:30am
    • Early voting begins in Ohio

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • U.S. auto sales seen advancing 9.5% in September
  • SEC to investigate high-frequency trading
  • Samsung says Apple iPhone 5 infringes eight patents in lawsuit
  • Former SAC Capital manager tells FBI fund used insider information
  • SAIC loses protest of $4.6b contract awarded to Lockheed
  • Juniper said to cut 500 jobs to reduce costs amid competition
  • U.S. retail sales growth may slow to 4.1% during holiday season
  • Manhattan home inventory falls to 7-yr low
  • Value Investing Congress includes presentations from David Einhorn

EARNINGS:

    • Mosaic (MOS) 7am, $1.16
    • Acuity Brands (AYI) 8:19am, $0.93

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Palm Oil Slumps Most Since October 2008 to Lowest in Three Years
  • Rubber Bulls Back as Exporters Cut Most Since 2009: Commodities
  • Soybeans Reach Lowest Price Since July on U.S. Harvest Progress
  • Oil Trades Near One-Week High as U.S. Manufacturing Expands
  • Gold Set to Gain for Second Day After Fed Renews Stimulus Pledge
  • Cocoa Falls as Concerns Ease Over Ivory Coast Industry Changes
  • Iron-Ore Swaps Little Changed as China Holidays Slow Trading
  • Countries Must Refrain From Banning Food Exports, FAO Says
  • Zinc Price Softens in 3Q on Surplus, 9.3% Rise Expected in 4Q
  • Cargill to Stop Using Fuel-Inefficient Ships to Curb Emissions
  • Nuclear Output Seen Falling to 3-Year Low on Refueling Shutdowns
  • Rothschild’s Bashed Bumi Offers ‘Great Trade’: Chart of the Day
  • Rubber May Advance 28% on Ichimoku Chart: Technical Analysis
  • Copper May Gain for Fourth Day on Global Central-Bank Stimulus

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


EUROPE – after European Equities got slammed last wk (Spain and Italy -6% each), seeing day2 of the bounce; plenty of rumoring going around about when Spain asks for bailouts and reminds the world they’ve been lying about pretty much every number that matters #classy; should end well.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


JAPAN – top 3 economy in the world is now seeing both its stock market and economic data collide; after a bearish Tankan yesterday, Nikkei closed down again overnight, taking the draw-down since the global #GrowthSlowing top (March) to -14.3%; #KeyenesianEconomics.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more