TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – October 1, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 19 points or -0.60% downside to 1432 and 0.72% upside to 1451.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 09/28 NYSE -658
- Decrease versus the prior day’s trading of 1479
- VOLUME: on 09/28 NYSE 832.31
- Increase versus prior day’s trading of 31.27%
- VIX: as of 09/28 was at 15.73
- Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 6.00%
- Year-to-date decrease of -32.78%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 09/28 closed at 2.01
- Up from the day prior at 1.82
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 26.72
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.62%
- Decrease from prior day’s trading of 1.63%
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.39
- Down from prior day’s trading at 1.40
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)
- 8:58am: Markit US PMI Final, Sept. est. 51.5 (prior 51.5)
- 10am: ISM Manufacturing, Sept. est. 49.8 (prior 49.6)
- 10am: Construction Spending M/m, Aug. est. 0.5% (prior -0.9%)
- 11am: Fed to buy $4.5b-$5.5b Treasury debt due 11/15/2020-8/15/2022
- 11:30am: U.S. to sell $32b 3-mo, bills, $28b 6-mo. bills
- 12pm: Fed’s Williams speaks in San Francisco
- 12:30pm: Bernanke speaks on monetary policy in Indianapolis
- 4pm: USDA crop-condition reports
GOVERNMENT:
- U.S. government’s fiscal year, Supreme Court term begin
- FDA Center for Drug Evaluation and Research Director Janet Woodcock speaks on agency’s future, 8am
- FAA advisory panel meets to review air-traffic control procedures for standardization, revision, clarification and upgrading of terminology, 8:30am
- WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy speaks on future of international trade at Brookings, 4:45pm
WHAT TO WATCH:
- U.S. manufacturing probably shrank in Sept. as global economy
- Xstrata backs Glencore bid after winning board assurance
- Kraft Foods Inc. becomes Mondelez; Kraft Foods Group spun off
- Greek government resumes talks with international creditors
- U.S. jobs outlook seen weak as companies see need to cut costs
- Nokia, Oracle to unveil mapping software pact: WSJ
- KKR said to buy stake in oil services company Acteon Group
- Euro-area unemployment at record 11.4% in Aug., matching est.
- Sony’s ‘Hotel Transylvania’ posts $43m in weekend N.A. sales
- Yahoo to hold “all-hands” meeting on process, goals: AllThingsD
- Japan Tankan sentiment worsens as slowdown hurts exports
- Chinese markets are closed all week
- LightSquared bankruptcy hearing over control of co.
EARNINGS:
- Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) 6:30am, $0.35
- Ferrellgas Partners (FGP) 7am, $(0.43)
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
OIL – the most bullish break-down in all of Global Macro in the last 10 days is the one associated with the USD having 2 consecutive up wks; Brent’s long-term TAIL line = $112.98, so we’ll be watching that line closely this week into and out of the Oct 3rd debate.
- Oil Declines From One-Week High as China Manufacturing Weakens
- Bull Wagers Tumble Most in 16 Weeks as Prices Slump: Commodities
- Xstrata Recommends Glencore’s Revised Offer to Its Shareholders
- Corn Reaches Two-Week High as Stocks Fall More Than Estimated
- Raw Sugar Climbs for Third Day Before Delivery; Cocoa Declines
- Gold Seen Falling in London as Some Investors Sell After Rally
- Copper Seen Falling as East Asian Economies Struggle for Growth
- Iron-Ore Price Forecast Cut by ANZ to $110/MT for Fourth Quarter
- Hedge Funds Cut Bullish Oil Bets as Output Soars: Energy Markets
- U.S. Beating Russia in Diesel Shipments Boosts Tankers: Freight
- Sumitomo Sees ‘Solar Bubble’ as Japan Rejects Nuclear: Energy
- Timah to Assess Work of Bangka Miners to Ensure Tin-Ore Supplies
- Silver Tops Commodities First Time Since 1997: Chart of the Day
- Iron-Ore Swaps Slide 0.5% in London, Clarkson Data Show
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
FRANCE – the Hollande election seems to be having some economic issues; France reported an absolute bomb of a PMI print for SEP of 42.7 this morning (vs 46 in AUG); still trying to figure out how USA becoming more like France in 2013 is a good thing…
ASIAN MARKETS
JAPAN – if countries with Keynesian policy makers would just ban reporting of economic data, everything would be fine; after closing down -2.6% last wk, Nikkei continues its bearish divergence, down another -0.8% overnight (-14.2% since the global #GrowthSlowing top in March); Top3 economy in the world; not inconsequential.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team
