TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – September 28, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 19 points or -0.91% downside to 1434 and 0.40% upside to 1453.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 09/27 NYSE 1479
- Increase versus the prior day’s trading of -678
- VOLUME: on 09/27 NYSE 634.05
- Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -14.15%
- VIX: as of 09/27 was at 14.84
- Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -11.72%
- Year-to-date decrease of -36.58%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 09/27 closed at 1.82
- Down from the day prior at 1.84
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 27.40
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.62%
- Decrease from prior day’s trading of 1.65%
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.38
- Down from prior day’s trading at 1.40
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)
- 8:30am: Personal Income, Aug., est. 0.2% (prior 0.3%)
- 8:30am: Personal Spending, Aug., est. 0.5% (prior 0.4%)
- 8:30am: PCE Core (Y/y), Aug., est. 1.6% (prior 1.6%)
- 9am: NAPM-Milwaukee, Sept., est. 45.0 (prior 42.9)
- 9:45am: Chicago Purchasing Manager, Sept., est. 53 (prior 53)
- 9:55am: UMich Confidence, Sept. F, est. 79 (prior 79.2)
- 11am: Fed to buy $1.5b-$2b notes due 2/15/2036 to 8/15/2042
- 1pm: Fed’s Fisher speaks in Dallas on economy
- 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count
GOVERNMENT:
- Obama leads in latest swing-state polls as first debate nears
- Financial Stability Oversight Council meets to choose first nonbank companies likely to be branded potential risks to financial system
- FDIC holds Consumer Research Symposium; panelists include Fed officials, 8am
- CFTC holds closed meeting on enforcement matters, 10am
- SEC holds meeting of Dodd-Frank Investor Advisory Cmte, 10am
- WTO sets up panel to decide whether U.S. broke global commerce rules with anti-subsidy duties affecting $7.3b of Chinese products
- Acting Commerce Secretary Rebecca Blank speaks at Council on Foreign Relations on policies to promote manufacturing, 12pm
- FCC open meeting on licensing, operating rules for satellite services; economic, innovation opportunities of spectrum through incentive auctions; mobile spectrum holdings, 10:30am
- Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano speaks at cybersecurity summit, 8am
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Spanish banks scheduled to release results of stress tests today
- Monti says ECB conditions, IMF role hinder bond-buying requests
- Yuan climbs to strongest level since 1993 on China stimulus
- Euro-region inflation unexpectedly accelerated in September
- Xstrata split with Glencore on terms as deadline nears
- FSA to oversee Libor in streamlining of tarnished benchmark
- U.S. criminal Libor probe said to seek London trader interviews
- Sony to invest $645m in Olympus
- Hartford to sell life-insurance unit to Prudential Financial
- U.S. Debate, ECB Bond Buying, Spain: Week Ahead Sept. 29-Oct. 6
EARNINGS:
- Finish Line (FINL) 7am, $0.44
- Walgreen (WAG) 7:30am, $0.56 - Preview
- American Greetings (AM) 7:30am, $0.14
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Sumitomo Sees Higher Copper Fees in 2013 as Supplies Increase
- Copper Bulls Retreat on Concern Stimulus Not Enough: Commodities
- Crude Oil Poised for Quarterly Gain Before U.S. Spending Report
- Gold Seen Extending Best Quarterly Gain Since 2010 on Stimulus
- Copper Heads for Quarterly Gain on Reduced Euro-Crisis Concern
- Corn Slides to an 11-Week Low Before USDA Report; Wheat Declines
- Cocoa Advances Most in Three Weeks in London; Coffee Declines
- Domestic Cuts May Make India a Net Importer of Iron Ore by 2015
- Brazil Has 24.8 Million Tons of Sugar for Export, Datagro Says
- Oil May Fall on Weaker Economy and Higher Output, Survey Shows
- Airlines Threatened by Costliest Fuel Since 2008: Energy Markets
- Shale Takeovers Loom as Texas Discounted in Australia: Real M&A
- Xstrata Split With Glencore on Terms as Deadline Nears: Energy
- India’s Goa Iron Ore Ban Likely to Have Minimal Effect on Market
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team