THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – September 28, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 19 points or -0.91% downside to 1434 and 0.40% upside to 1453. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


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EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 09/27 NYSE 1479
    • Increase versus the prior day’s trading of -678
  • VOLUME: on 09/27 NYSE 634.05
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -14.15%
  • VIX:  as of 09/27 was at 14.84
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -11.72%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -36.58%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 09/27 closed at 1.82
    • Down from the day prior at 1.84

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 27.40
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.62%
    • Decrease from prior day’s trading of 1.65%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.38
    • Down from prior day’s trading at 1.40

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 8:30am: Personal Income, Aug., est. 0.2% (prior 0.3%)
  • 8:30am: Personal Spending, Aug., est. 0.5% (prior 0.4%)
  • 8:30am: PCE Core (Y/y), Aug., est. 1.6% (prior 1.6%)
  • 9am: NAPM-Milwaukee, Sept., est. 45.0 (prior 42.9)
  • 9:45am: Chicago Purchasing Manager, Sept., est. 53 (prior 53)
  • 9:55am: UMich Confidence, Sept. F, est. 79 (prior 79.2)
  • 11am: Fed to buy $1.5b-$2b notes due 2/15/2036 to 8/15/2042
  • 1pm: Fed’s Fisher speaks in Dallas on economy
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count

GOVERNMENT:

    • Obama leads in latest swing-state polls as first debate nears
    • Financial Stability Oversight Council meets to choose first nonbank companies likely to be branded potential risks to financial system
    • FDIC holds Consumer Research Symposium; panelists include Fed officials, 8am
    • CFTC holds closed meeting on enforcement matters, 10am
    • SEC holds meeting of Dodd-Frank Investor Advisory Cmte, 10am
    • WTO sets up panel to decide whether U.S. broke global commerce rules with anti-subsidy duties affecting $7.3b of Chinese products
    • Acting Commerce Secretary Rebecca Blank speaks at Council on Foreign Relations on policies to promote manufacturing, 12pm
    • FCC open meeting on licensing, operating rules for satellite services; economic, innovation opportunities of spectrum through incentive auctions; mobile spectrum holdings, 10:30am
    • Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano speaks at cybersecurity summit, 8am

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Spanish banks scheduled to release results of stress tests today
  • Monti says ECB conditions, IMF role hinder bond-buying requests
  • Yuan climbs to strongest level since 1993 on China stimulus
  • Euro-region inflation unexpectedly accelerated in September
  • Xstrata split with Glencore on terms as deadline nears
  • FSA to oversee Libor in streamlining of tarnished benchmark
  • U.S. criminal Libor probe said to seek London trader interviews
  • Sony to invest $645m in Olympus
  • Hartford to sell life-insurance unit to Prudential Financial
  • U.S. Debate, ECB Bond Buying, Spain: Week Ahead Sept. 29-Oct. 6

EARNINGS:

    • Finish Line (FINL) 7am, $0.44
    • Walgreen (WAG) 7:30am, $0.56 - Preview
    • American Greetings (AM) 7:30am, $0.14

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Sumitomo Sees Higher Copper Fees in 2013 as Supplies Increase
  • Copper Bulls Retreat on Concern Stimulus Not Enough: Commodities
  • Crude Oil Poised for Quarterly Gain Before U.S. Spending Report
  • Gold Seen Extending Best Quarterly Gain Since 2010 on Stimulus
  • Copper Heads for Quarterly Gain on Reduced Euro-Crisis Concern
  • Corn Slides to an 11-Week Low Before USDA Report; Wheat Declines
  • Cocoa Advances Most in Three Weeks in London; Coffee Declines
  • Domestic Cuts May Make India a Net Importer of Iron Ore by 2015
  • Brazil Has 24.8 Million Tons of Sugar for Export, Datagro Says
  • Oil May Fall on Weaker Economy and Higher Output, Survey Shows
  • Airlines Threatened by Costliest Fuel Since 2008: Energy Markets
  • Shale Takeovers Loom as Texas Discounted in Australia: Real M&A
  • Xstrata Split With Glencore on Terms as Deadline Nears: Energy
  • India’s Goa Iron Ore Ban Likely to Have Minimal Effect on Market

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CURRENCIES

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EUROPEAN MARKETS


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ASIAN MARKETS

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team