THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – September 27, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 28 points or -0.23% downside to 1430 and 1.72% upside to 1458. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2a

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 09/26 NYSE -678
    • Increase versus the prior day’s trading of -1409
  • VOLUME: on 09/26 NYSE 738.55
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -2.28%
  • VIX:  as of 09/26 was at 16.81
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 8.94%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -28.16%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 09/26 closed at 1.84
    • Up from the day prior at 1.74

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


BONDS – Bernanke says money printing buys growth, bonds say nein! 10yr drops from 1.90% to 1.62% in a straight line as both growth and #EarningsSlowing expectations kick the Keynesians where it hurts. Bonds are immediate-term TRADE overbought here within a powerful long-term bull market; another reason to buy stocks this morning instead.

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 26.09
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.65%
    • Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.61%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.39
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.35

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 8:30am: Labor Dept. scheduled to issue preliminary benchmark revisions to annual employment data
  • 8:30am: GDP (Q/q) (Annualized) 2Q T, est. 1.7% (prior 1.7%)
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, week of Sept. 22, est. 375k
  • 8:30am: Continuing Claims, week of Sept. 15, est. 3.288m
  • 8:30am: Durable Goods, Aug., est. -5.0% (prior 4.2%)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, week of Sept. 23
  • 10am: Pending Home Sales (M/m), Aug., est. 0.3%
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas change
  • 11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, Sept., est. 5
  • 11am: Fed to sell $7b-$8b notes in 9/30/2015 to 11/30/2015 range
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $29b 7-year notes

GOVERNMENT:

    • Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. holds Consumer Research Symposium, with FDIC acting chairman Martin Gruenberg, officials from SEC, CFPB, 8am
    • FDA workshop: medical countermeasures in case of radiological, nuclear, chemical attack involving mass burns, 8:30am
    • Pentagon advisory panel meets to discuss uniform fomulary for TRICARE pharmaceuticals, 9am
    • USTR advisory panel meets on trade practices in Iraq, Indonesia, Ukraine, Fiji, 9:30am
    • Cybersecurity conf. w/ ex-NSA/CIA Director Michael Hayden, 8am
    • Ford Chief Economist Ellen Hughes-Cromwick delivers remarks on state of automotive industry at National Economists Club, 12pm

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Orders for U.S. durable goods probably slumped on airplanes
  • Euro-area economic confidence unexpectedly fell in September
  • Madrid protesters march for second night on austerity measures
  • China stocks jump most in 3 weeks on market support prospect
  • Chrysler Group reaches 4yr labor deal with CAW
  • German unemployment rose for 6th month in September
  • VW says some carmakers may go bankrupt without state help
  • Nomura said to cut as many as 30 jobs in American equities
  • Comtech says CEO being probed by grand jury over sales to Israel
  • ResCap bondholders pull support for Ally unit’s bankruptcy plan
  • H&M 3Q profit misses estimates as margins shrink
  • Starbucks to add stores in Scandinavia to spur European sales

EARNINGS:

    • McCormick & Co. (MKC) 6:30am, $0.76
    • Actuant (ATU) 7:30am, $0.54
    • Discover Financial Services (DFS) 8:30am, $1.03 - Preview
    • Accenture (ACN)  4pm, $0.88
    • Micron Technology (MU) 4pm, $(0.23)
    • Global Payments (GPN) 4:01pm, $0.87
    • Sealy (ZZ) 4:01pm, $0.03
    • Nike (NKE) 4:15pm, $1.13
    • Research In Motion (RIM CN) 4:15pm, $(0.47)

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Gold Gains for First Day This Week as Price Slump Spurs Buying
  • Hedge Funds Bullish on Silver as Hoard Nears Record
  • Sugar Imports by China Seen Falling as Harvest, Stockpiles Climb
  • Oil Recovers From Eight-Week Low After U.S. Inventories Dropped
  • Copper Rises as China Company Profits Fuel Stimulus Speculation
  • Wheat Drops on Signs Russia Won’t Curb Shipments; Soybeans Fall
  • Cocoa Falls as Ivory Coast Reform Concern Eases; Sugar Advances
  • Cotton Exports From India Set to Plunge as Chinese Demand Cools
  • Cosco Sees Extended Slump as Shipper Yields Surge: China Credit
  • Pakistan’s Rice Sales Seen Climbing as Harvest Set to Cut Prices
  • BP’s Texas Refinery Sale Shows Volatile Industry’s Decay: Energy
  • Billionaires Rinehart, Bennett in New Dispute Over Pilbara Mines
  • Oil Puts at 16-Month High Versus S&P 500 on Slowdown: Options
  • Shrinking U.S. Corn Supply Trails Use for First Time in 16 Years

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES


USD – get the Dollar right, and you’ll get a lot of market beta right; it has been a really nice counter-trend move for the Burning Buck off its Bernanke (SEP14) low; everything else has reacted inversely to that and now I’m getting an immediate-term TRADE overbought signal for the USD Index at $79.98, so Buyem! (stocks), for the bounce into mth/quarter end.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – nice pop off the lows for Chinese Equities of +2.6% should get the rumor mill in motion about the stimuli this morn; If Oil prices remain under pressure, we’ll be much more constructive on Equity markets built on unlevered growth (bought both Brazil and Taiwan on red this week). Interesting to see these markets diverge from USA/Europe – they should.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more