TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – September 26, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 28 points or -0.80% downside to 1430 and 1.14% upside to 1458.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 09/25 NYSE -1409
- Decrease versus the prior day’s trading of -586
- VOLUME: on 09/25 NYSE 755.74
- Increase versus prior day’s trading of 20.81%
- VIX: as of 09/25 was at 15.43
- Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 9.05%
- Year-to-date decrease of -34.06%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 09/25 closed at 1.74
- Down from the day prior at 2.59
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
BERNANKE – every Qe has been met w/ a shorter, steeper, asset price rally, but a faster correction; this is doing nothing to inspire price stability and employment; Financials (XLF) and Commodities (CRB) down -4.2% and -4.3%, respectively, since what will be remembered as a historic morning-after in US economic history (SEP 14, 2012).
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 25.70
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.11%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.66%
- Decrease from prior day’s trading of 1.67%
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.39
- Down from prior day’s trading at 1.41
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)
- 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, week of Sept. 21 (prior -0.2%)
- 10am: New Home Sales, Aug. est. 380k (prior 372k)
- 10:30am: DoE Oil, Gasoline Inventories
- 11am: Fed to purchase $4.25b-$5b notes due 9/30/2018-8/15/2020
- 11am: Business Roundtable releases 3Q CEO economy survey
- 1pm: U.S. to sell $35b 5-year notes
- 1:15pm: Fed’s Evans speaks in Hammond, Indiana
GOVERNMENT:
- Secretary of State Hillary Clinton delivers remarks at UN on HIV/AIDS, 9am
- TeleCommunication Systems, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin officials unveil new user terminal for secure military satellite communications, 8:30am
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Spanish government bonds fall amid bailout speculation
- Kraft Foods Group to replace Alpha Natural in S&P 500
- Intel CEO said to tell staff that Microsoft’s Windows 8 operating system is being released before fully ready
- Yahoo says Ken Goldman to replace Tim Morse as finance chief
- Credit Suisse said to consider merging asset management unit
- EADS CEO struggles to quell German skepticism on BAE merger
- Ameriprise said to near purchase of ING asset management unit
- Bank of America said to plan about 40 job cuts in Asia
- IBM’s Rometty to succeed former CEO Palmisano as chairman
- GE raises $462m from selling 7.6% stake of Bank of Ayudhya
- Barclays unit sued over securities by U.S. Credit Union regulator
- Cargill says looking for acquisitions to meet target growth
EARNINGS:
- AGF Management (AGF/B CN) 8am, C$0.19
- Progress Software (PRGS) 4:30pm, $0.23
- HB Fuller (FUL) After-mkt, $0.53
- Worthington (WOR) After-mkt, $0.47
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Oil Falls to Seven-Week Low on Demand Outlook, Stockpile Gain
- Billionaire Rinehart Sued for Ownership of Pilbara Ore Mines
- Sugar to Extend Bearish Run in Third Year of Glut, ISO Says
- Copper Drops on Concern Global Stimulus May Fail to Spur Growth
- Gold Gains in London on Signs of Demand in Euros, Indian Rupees
- Soybeans Drop on Brazilian Conditions, U.S. Harvest Progress
- Iron Ore Unlikely to Rebound as China Slows, Shale-Inland Says
- Rebar Falls in Shanghai on Concern Housing Curbs May Sap Demand
- Palm Oil Set for Biggest Quarterly Loss Since 2008 on Stockpiles
- AngloGold Operations Halted in South Africa as Strikes Spread
- Natural Gas Pipelines to Expand U.S. Supply Glut: Energy Markets
- China Coal Inventory Drop Suggests Destocking End Is Nigh
- Paraguay Reclaiming Energy From Brazil in Franco Industrial Push
- Cargill Says Grain Rally Means No Shortage
- U.K. Farms Face Organic Wheat Seed Shortage as Rain Spurs Blight
CURRENCIES
USD – get the Dollar right, you’ll get most things beta right; that’s the story of the last 7 trading sessions (stocks down for 6 of 7 with the USD straight up on the bounce off its TAIL support line of $78.11). Right here the USD is immediate-term TRADE overbought; Euro 1.28 immediate-term TRADE oversold, so we bought stocks into the close yesterday, including AAPL.
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
JAPAN – the BOJ has plenty of experience to show into Krugman, Bernanke, and the Princeton School of Keynesian Fiscal Cliffs; remember Japan’s additional 10 TRILLION Yens in “stimulation” last wk? never mind a 1.5 day rip like Bernanke had, Japan only had 1 day – expensive!; Nikkei down another 2% last night, down -13.2% since #GrowthSlowing started, globally, in March.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team