THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – September 25, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 16 points or -1.02% downside to 1442 and 0.08% upside to 1458. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


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EQUITY SENTIMENT: 

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 09/24 NYSE -586
    • Decrease versus the prior day’s trading of 526
  • VOLUME: on 09/24 NYSE 625.57
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -65.42%
  • VIX:  as of 09/24 was at 14.15
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 1.22%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -39.53%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 09/24 closed at 2.59
    • Up from the day prior at 1.21 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


TREASURIES – as wrong as we were that Bernanke couldn’t go to infinity is as wrong as his market call looks all of a sudden, especially in the eyes of who has had #GrowthSlowing nailed for all of 2012 (the bond market); 10yr UST yield literally straight down since peaking post Bernanke Sept13 day from 1.89% to 1.69% last (Yield Spread at 2wk lows).

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 27.09
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.11%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.69%
    • Decrease from prior day’s trading of 1.71%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.43
    • Down from prior day’s trading at 1.45 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook weekly sales
  • 9am: S&P/Case-Shiller 20 City (M/m) SA, July, est. 0.8%
  • 10am: Conference Board Consumer Conf. Index, Sept., est. 63.2
  • 10am: Richmond Fed Manuf. Index, Sept., est. -6 (prior -9)
  • 10am: House Price Index (M/m), July, est. 0.6% (prior 0.7%)
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $4.5b-$5.5b notes due 11/15/2020-8/15/2022
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $40b 4-week bills
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $35b 2-year notes
  • 4:30pm: API inventories

GOVERNMENT:

    • Obama set to speak at United Nations
    • IMF releases portions of Global Financial Stability Report, including “The Reform Agenda: An Interim Report on Progress Towards a Safer Financial System,” 10:30am
    • DARPA program manager Richard Ridgway discusses military’s use of mobile hotspot technology at Military Antennas Summit, 8am
    • FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski discusses broadband challenges at Vox Media event, 10:30am

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Apple’s use of thin display seen driving iPhone 5 supply shortfall
  • Spain sells EU4b of bills meeting maximum traget
  • Schaeffler sells $2b stake in Continental to cut debt
  • Billionaire Ellison increases Oracle credit line to $4.5b
  • Digital Domain sale to Chinese-Indian venture approved by court
  • Diego in talks to buy United Spirits stake: WSJ
  • Nasdaq, Amazon to partner on cloud storage of financial data
  • Foxconn resumes production at China plant after worker brawl
  • Warner Music says Cohen resigns as CEO of recorded music
  • Providence Equity Partners sells stake of under 10%: WSJ
  • BAE CFO Lynas said to hold same role in proposed EADS merger
  • AT&T to market business mobile security to consumers in 2013
  • Chevron under EPA probe for avoiding refinery monitors in 2009
  • California offers lowest interest rate in $1.75b bond sale

EARNINGS:

    • FactSet Research Systems (FDS) 7am, $1.17
    • Vail Resorts (MTN) 7:30am, $(1.56)
    • Carnival (CCL) 9:15am, $1.43
    • Synnex (SNX) 4pm, $0.93
    • Jabil Circuit (JBL) 4:02pm, $0.58
    • Copart (CPRT) Post-Mkt, $0.33

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

OIL – getting a +0.5% bounce this morn, but remains a bearish TAIL risk situation in our signaling model as long ast $111.44 Brent remains resistance; interesting that the US equity futures aren’t up w/ oil up; EUR/USD down again trumping that, as it should. 

  • Oil Rises in New York on Speculation Last Week’s Drop Overdone
  • Pork Supply Shrinks to Lowest Since 1975 on Drought: Commodities
  • Copper Stockpiles in Shanghai Bonded Warehouses Seen at Record
  • Silver in ETPs Set for Record as Central Banks Ignite Demand
  • Soybeans Set to Rebound From Six-Week Low on Importer Purchases
  • Kazakhstan Expands Gold Reserves as South Korea Buys 16 Tons
  • Palm Oil Snaps Five Days of Losses as Declines Deemed Overdone
  • Oil Supply Rises Third Week Post Isaac in Survey: Energy Markets
  • Bearish Bets on Potash Decline at Fastest Pace Ever: Options
  • Iron Ore’s Rebound Poised to Peter Out on Weak Demand, ANZ Says
  • Western Europeans Munch the Most Chocolate Globally, U.K. Leads
  • Einhorn’s Losing Gold-Miner Strategy Endorsed: Chart of the Day
  • Japan’s Nuclear Exit Extending Record Profit for Golar: Freight
  • Pork Supply Shrinks to Lowest Since 1975
  • Copper Advances in London After Report of Stabilization in China

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CURRENCIES


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EUROPEAN MARKETS


GERMANY – the Germans, meanwhile, told the French to go fly a kite this weekend on timing and are “now losing patience with Spain”; Merkel comments have dominated my tweet-stream sources since 430AM EST as European stocks move back to their lows; ITALY is down -4.7% (MIB Index) since Bernanke’s Infinity & Beyond say (Sep13).

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ASIAN MARKETS

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team