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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – September 19, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 28 points or -0.91% downside to 1446 and 1.01% upside to 1474. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

EQUITY SENTIMENT: 

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 09/18 NYSE -341
    • Increase versus the prior day’s trading of -1137
  • VOLUME: on 09/18 NYSE 632.88
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -4.96%
  • VIX:  as of 09/18 was at 14.18
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -2.81%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -39.40%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 09/17 closed at 1.49
    • Up  from the day prior at 1.33 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 28.24
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.79%
    • Decrease from prior day’s trading of 1.81%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.54
    • Down from prior day’s trading at 1.55 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 7am MBA Mortgage Applications, Sept. 14 (prior 11.1%)
  • 8:30am: Housing Starts, Aug. est. 767k (prior 746k)
  • 8:30am: Building Permits M/m, Aug. est. 796k (prior 811k)
  • 9:45am: Fed’s George at jobs conf. in Kansas City, Missouri
  • 10am: Existing Home Sales, Aug. est. 4.56m (prior 4.47m)
  • 10:30am: DoE Inventories
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $1.5b-$2b notes due 2/15/2036-8/15/2042
  • 7pm: Fed’s Fisher speaks on economy and policy in New York

GOVERNMENT:

    • Washington Day Ahead
    • House, Senate in session
    • Bernanke meets privately with Senate Finance Committee to discuss economy, automatic spending cuts, tax increases set to take effect in January, 4:30pm
    • CME Group President Terrence Duffy, SEC Commissioner Daniel Gallagher among speakers at Georgetown University conference on financial market quality
    • FDA advisory panel meets to consider using cell lines derived from human tumors for vaccine manufacture, 8am
    • U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk participates in Global Services Summit
    • House Oversight holds hearing on effectiveness of trade- adjustment assistance, 11am
    • Secretary Janet Napolitano testifies at Senate Homeland Security hearing on threats, agency responses, 10am

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Bank of Japan unexpectedly expands asset-purchase fund by $126b
  • Goldman names Schwartz to succeed CFO Viniar
  • Samsung loses bid to lift Galaxy sales ban in Apple dispute
  • U.S. housing starts probably climbed to four-year high
  • ThaiBev supports Heineken bid for Fraser & Neave’s beer business
  • China resumes buying U.S. Treasury securities as trade surplus widens
  • Apple, publishers offer to shun price-fixing to end EU probe
  • Google joins Amazon, Facebook in new internet lobbying group
  • Anschutz plans to sell L.A.-based live event promoter AEG
  • Apple iPhone 5 praised for speed, faulted on maps by reviewers

EARNINGS:

    • Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) 7am, $1.30
    • AutoZone (AZO) 7am, $8.40
    • Ascena Retail Group (ASNA) 7am, $0.29
    • General Mills (GIS) 7am, $0.62 - Preview
    • Steelcase (SCS) 4:01pm, $0.18
    • Adobe Systems (ADBE) 4:05pm, $0.59
    • Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) 4:15pm, $1.02
    • Clarcor (CLC) Aft-mkt, $0.69

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

OIL – get the Dollar right, you get Oil right, evidently. No, that wasn’t a fat finger on Monday; that was a man operating a machine that decided to sell Oil ahead of the USD’s 1st two-day up move in almost 6wks; Oil under price momentum pressure now that my immediate-term TRADE line of $113.95 broke (that’s why we got longer US Equities yesterday).

  • Lithium Boom Spurs Production From California Brine: Commodities
  • Oil at $100 No Spur Yet to Release Stockpiles: Energy Markets
  • Oil Extends Losses as Signs of More Supply Offset Japan Stimulus
  • Gold Seen Gaining From Six-Month High as Stimulus Spurs Demand
  • Soybeans Climb as Price Slump May Draw Importers and Investors
  • Copper Seen Advancing on Japanese Stimulus, Lower Stockpiles
  • Sugar Falls on Signs of Ample Supplies From Brazil; Cocoa Gains
  • BHP Says Pace of China Iron Ore Demand Has Slowed by Half
  • Farmer’s Daughter Haugerud Reaps Riches on Drought-Struck Corn
  • B2Gold to Buy CGA for $1.13 Billion to Add Philippine Mine
  • Saudi Arabia Acting to Reduce Oil Price, Gulf Official Says
  • Platinum Holdings Expand to Record on Mine Disruptions, QE3
  • Milk Powder Prices Advance to Five-Month High Amid U.S. Drought
  • China Sugar Output Seen Curbing Imports
  • Rebar in Shanghai Rises for Second Day on Ore Price, Cash Market
  • Chinese Ore Imports Seen Falling 24% as Australia Cuts Forecast
  • Uranium Recovery Postponed as Price Drops to 2-Year Low: Energy

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS


ITALY – watch this Italian Equity market closely as it diverges negatively vs Spain this wk (Italy has to beg for their bailout later); MIB index just snapped my immediate-term TRADE line of 16,239 as it makes lower-highs vs March.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

ASIAN MARKETS


JAPAN – what’s another 10T, amongst Keynesian friends? Currency War remains on as Japan expands money printing operations to 80 TRILLION yens; Dollar up, Yen down, Japanese stocks up +1.2% (still -10% since March).

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team