TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – September 19, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 28 points or -0.91% downside to 1446 and 1.01% upside to 1474.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 09/18 NYSE -341
- Increase versus the prior day’s trading of -1137
- VOLUME: on 09/18 NYSE 632.88
- Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -4.96%
- VIX: as of 09/18 was at 14.18
- Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -2.81%
- Year-to-date decrease of -39.40%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 09/17 closed at 1.49
- Up from the day prior at 1.33
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 28.24
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.79%
- Decrease from prior day’s trading of 1.81%
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.54
- Down from prior day’s trading at 1.55
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)
- 7am MBA Mortgage Applications, Sept. 14 (prior 11.1%)
- 8:30am: Housing Starts, Aug. est. 767k (prior 746k)
- 8:30am: Building Permits M/m, Aug. est. 796k (prior 811k)
- 9:45am: Fed’s George at jobs conf. in Kansas City, Missouri
- 10am: Existing Home Sales, Aug. est. 4.56m (prior 4.47m)
- 10:30am: DoE Inventories
- 11am: Fed to purchase $1.5b-$2b notes due 2/15/2036-8/15/2042
- 7pm: Fed’s Fisher speaks on economy and policy in New York
GOVERNMENT:
- Washington Day Ahead
- House, Senate in session
- Bernanke meets privately with Senate Finance Committee to discuss economy, automatic spending cuts, tax increases set to take effect in January, 4:30pm
- CME Group President Terrence Duffy, SEC Commissioner Daniel Gallagher among speakers at Georgetown University conference on financial market quality
- FDA advisory panel meets to consider using cell lines derived from human tumors for vaccine manufacture, 8am
- U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk participates in Global Services Summit
- House Oversight holds hearing on effectiveness of trade- adjustment assistance, 11am
- Secretary Janet Napolitano testifies at Senate Homeland Security hearing on threats, agency responses, 10am
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Bank of Japan unexpectedly expands asset-purchase fund by $126b
- Goldman names Schwartz to succeed CFO Viniar
- Samsung loses bid to lift Galaxy sales ban in Apple dispute
- U.S. housing starts probably climbed to four-year high
- ThaiBev supports Heineken bid for Fraser & Neave’s beer business
- China resumes buying U.S. Treasury securities as trade surplus widens
- Apple, publishers offer to shun price-fixing to end EU probe
- Google joins Amazon, Facebook in new internet lobbying group
- Anschutz plans to sell L.A.-based live event promoter AEG
- Apple iPhone 5 praised for speed, faulted on maps by reviewers
EARNINGS:
- Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) 7am, $1.30
- AutoZone (AZO) 7am, $8.40
- Ascena Retail Group (ASNA) 7am, $0.29
- General Mills (GIS) 7am, $0.62 - Preview
- Steelcase (SCS) 4:01pm, $0.18
- Adobe Systems (ADBE) 4:05pm, $0.59
- Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) 4:15pm, $1.02
- Clarcor (CLC) Aft-mkt, $0.69
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
OIL – get the Dollar right, you get Oil right, evidently. No, that wasn’t a fat finger on Monday; that was a man operating a machine that decided to sell Oil ahead of the USD’s 1st two-day up move in almost 6wks; Oil under price momentum pressure now that my immediate-term TRADE line of $113.95 broke (that’s why we got longer US Equities yesterday).
- Lithium Boom Spurs Production From California Brine: Commodities
- Oil at $100 No Spur Yet to Release Stockpiles: Energy Markets
- Oil Extends Losses as Signs of More Supply Offset Japan Stimulus
- Gold Seen Gaining From Six-Month High as Stimulus Spurs Demand
- Soybeans Climb as Price Slump May Draw Importers and Investors
- Copper Seen Advancing on Japanese Stimulus, Lower Stockpiles
- Sugar Falls on Signs of Ample Supplies From Brazil; Cocoa Gains
- BHP Says Pace of China Iron Ore Demand Has Slowed by Half
- Farmer’s Daughter Haugerud Reaps Riches on Drought-Struck Corn
- B2Gold to Buy CGA for $1.13 Billion to Add Philippine Mine
- Saudi Arabia Acting to Reduce Oil Price, Gulf Official Says
- Platinum Holdings Expand to Record on Mine Disruptions, QE3
- Milk Powder Prices Advance to Five-Month High Amid U.S. Drought
- China Sugar Output Seen Curbing Imports
- Rebar in Shanghai Rises for Second Day on Ore Price, Cash Market
- Chinese Ore Imports Seen Falling 24% as Australia Cuts Forecast
- Uranium Recovery Postponed as Price Drops to 2-Year Low: Energy
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ITALY – watch this Italian Equity market closely as it diverges negatively vs Spain this wk (Italy has to beg for their bailout later); MIB index just snapped my immediate-term TRADE line of 16,239 as it makes lower-highs vs March.
ASIAN MARKETS
JAPAN – what’s another 10T, amongst Keynesian friends? Currency War remains on as Japan expands money printing operations to 80 TRILLION yens; Dollar up, Yen down, Japanese stocks up +1.2% (still -10% since March).
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team
