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Takeaway: Chinese rebar may have bounced but it'll be short-lived as it continues to drop in price heading into 2013.

We’ve examined the relationship between Brent crude oil and the price of Chinese rebar as the price of rebar fell nearly 50% over the last year. Though there is a significant bounce in September pricing, we believe it’s nothing but a dead cat bounce and that rebar prices will continue to fall.

The spot rebar price is +7% off the September 7 low, coinciding with the rip in most risk assets after the ECB announced its new bond-buying program.  That makes intuitive sense – Europe is China’s #1 export customer.  China likely has a bunch of steel it can’t get rid of or we’re not getting the entire picture.

Chinese Rebar Prices Rebound - china rebar