THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – September 18, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 35 points or -1.52% downside to 1439 and 0.88% upside to 1474. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


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EQUITY SENTIMENT: 

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 09/17 NYSE -1137
    • Decrease versus the prior day’s trading of 1130
  • VOLUME: on 09/17 NYSE 665.89
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -26.00%
  • VIX:  as of 09/17 was at 14.59
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 0.55%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -37.65%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 09/17 closed at 1.33
    • Up  from the day prior at 1.06

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


BOND YIELDS – the bond market continues to deliver the same anti-Bernanke message on growth – lower-highs again in 10yr yields (1.81% this morn vs 1.87% Friday) on global #GrowthSlowing.

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 28.93
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.81%
    • Decrease from prior day’s trading of 1.84%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.56
    • Down from prior day’s trading at 1.59 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook weekly sales
  • 8am: Fed’s Evans speaks in Michigan on economy
  • 8:30am: Current Account Trade Balance, 2Q, est. - $125.9b (prior -$137.3b)
  • 9am: Total Net TIC Flows, July (prior $16.7b)
  • 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, Sept. est. 38 (prior 37)
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $4.25b-$5b notes due 9/30/2018-8/15/2020
  • 11:30am: Fed to sell 4-wk bills, 1-yr bills
  • 12:45pm: Fed’s Dudley speaks in New Jersey on economy
  • 4:30pm: Fed’s Dudley speaks in New Jersey on economy
  • 4:30pm: API inventories
  • 7:45pm: Fed’s Lacker speaks in New York on monetary policy

 GOVERNMENT:

    • Washington Day Ahead
    • House meets at noon in pro forma session, Senate not in session
    • Treasury Dept. issues interim final rule on assessment of fees on large bank holding companies, non-bank financial firms overseen by Fed to cover expenses of Financial Research Fund
    • Marion Blakey, president of AIA, delivers remarks on “Countdown to Sequestration,” at Air Force Assn conf., 9am
    • Boeing, AMR’s American Airlines, FAA hold media briefing and tour of 737-800 ecoDemonstrator airplane, 10am
    • National Transportation Safety Board Chairman Deborah Hersman will address aviation industry about improving safety, 12:30pm

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Spanish bonds declined on concern European leaders will struggle to contain the debt crisis
  • Toyota among companies shutting some plants as China-Japan islands dispute continues
  • Apple reaches $700 after iPhone shatters sales record
  • Apple may sell 6m-10m iPhone 5s in first weekend: Piper’s Munster
  • German investor confidence rises first time in 5 months
  • Oil extends decline in NY after biggest drop in 2 months
  • Lenovo buys Stoneware to gain cloud-computing products
  • Itochu pays $1.69b in cash for 2 Dole Food units
  • China home prices rise in fewer cities in Aug. vs prev. month
  • American Airlines cuts seating capacity amid cancelled flights
  • United under investigation for tarmac delays during July thunderstorms
  • Advanced Micro CFO Seifert resigns to seek other opportunities
  • GM, Chrysler talks with Canadian Auto Workers Union extended
  • Europe auto sales fall 8.5% in Aug. amid weaker German demand

EARNINGS:

    • Cracker Barrel (CBRL) 7am, $1.30
    • FedEx (FDX) 7:30am, $1.40 - Preview

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)


OIL – it didn’t take much of a USD move to knock Oil off its highs yesterday; the USD was up +0.14%, and Oil got hammered; SPR or no SPR rumors, reality is called the Correlation Risk, and for almost every major commodity its ripping in the -0.7-0.9 range right now vs USD; important immediate-term TRADE line of price momentum for Brent Oil = $114.69 broke.

  • Harvard Losing Out to South Dakota in Graduate Pay: Commodities
  • Mendillo Returns to Timberland as Harvard Vies for Ivy Rebound
  • European Central Banks’ Gold Sales Are Second Lowest Since 1999
  • Oil Extends Decline in New York After Biggest Drop in Two Months
  • Copper Drops for Second Day as Chinese Easing May Be Less Likely
  • Gold Set to Fall as Rally to Six-Month High Spurs Investor Sales
  • Coffee Falls in New York as Farmers Boost Sales; Sugar Declines
  • Rebar Advances to Four-Week High as Property Data Ease Concern
  • Palm Oil Drops Most in 19 Months as Oilseed Supplies Improve
  • Falkland Gas Find Heralds World’s Most Remote LNG Plant: Energy
  • Australia Cuts Iron Ore Price Outlook on China Demand Woes
  • Stealth Sugar Lobbying Funds Health Group’s Corn-Sweetener Fight
  • Iron-Ore Swaps Seen Extending Gains for 4th Day in Clarkson Data
  • Australia Cuts Iron Ore Outlook on China
  • Oil Supplies Gain for Second Week in Survey: Energy Markets
  • Soybeans Reach One-Month Low on Signs of Slowing U.S. Exports
  • Aluminum Premiums for Japan Said to Reach Record on Supply Curbs

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CURRENCIES


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EUROPEAN MARKETS


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ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – Shanghai Comp down -3% in 2 days (-0.9% overnight) led Asian stocks lower, as Asian Equities are making lower-highs vs March. That -10.6% Singapore y/y export print for August mattered. No stimuli from China w/ inflation up here.

 

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team