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Post Squeezage: SP500 Levels, Refreshed ...

Takeaway: With the squeezage having run its course, now we can go right back to managing the risk of the market’s multiple ranges, across durations.

POSITIONS: Long Consumer Staples (XLP), Short SPY

 

It’s not my 1st rodeo being squeezed by a central planner. I highly doubt it will be my last. With the squeezage having run its course, now we can go right back to managing the risk of the market’s multiple ranges, across durations:

 

  1. Immediate-term TRADE = 1
  2. Intermediate-term TREND support = 1419
  3. Long-term TAIL resistance = 1565

 

In other words, you can try to threat the needle and buy high, but that didn’t work buying on Friday at 1473 inasmuch as it didn’t work on the way down in 2008. So I think you really have to take a step back here and make a call on what growth and earnings do next.

 

Our core Global Macro research call, since March, has been Global #GrowthSlowing. What Bernanke did last week only heightens the probability that real (inflation adjusted) global growth slows further.

 

Unless they ban the reporting of Q3 earnings season (could happen, you never know), I think you have plenty of opportunity to cover shorts and/or buy on red in that 1 range. In the meantime, from here, keep your gross low and net tight.

 

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Post Squeezage: SP500 Levels, Refreshed ... - 1


European Banking Monitor: QE3 has Landed... Now What?

Takeaway: We caution against riding Bernanke and Draghi's coattails. We view fiscal integration and slow growth as risks ahead.

Below are key European banking risk monitors, which are included as part of Josh Steiner and the Financial team's "Monday Morning Risk Monitor".  If you'd like to receive the work of the Financials team or request a trial please email .

 

Key Takeaways:

 

*QE3 has landed, what now? - Banks swaps and sovereign swaps in America, Europe, and Asia all tightened WoW, benefitting from the Fed's QE3 announcement on Thursday. Now what?

 

We caution that there is risk in simply riding Bernanke and Draghi’s coattails. We stand by the view that European economies have a lengthy runway to get out from under the debt traps that many have created over the last five years. We continue to view the Eurozone experiment as flawed and see headwinds ahead in creating a fiscal union. Finally, rising commodity costs and sticky to rising inflation rates should present further near-term pressures.

 

Today’s equity markets show that despite all the optimism behind Draghi’s unlimited sovereign bond purchasing program (OMTs) and Bernanke’s to” infinity and beyond” low interest rates over the last two weeks, European equities are selling off as the realities of the challenges and risks ahead for the Eurozone project return to focus.

 

On OMTs Reporting: The ECB has stated that Aggregate Outright Monetary Transaction holdings and their market values will be published on a weekly basis and the average duration of Outright Monetary Transaction holdings and the breakdown by country will take place on a monthly basis. There is no indication that the OMTs has been initiated.

 

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If you’d like to discuss recent developments in Europe, from the political to financial to social, please let me know and we can set up a call.

 

Matthew Hedrick

Senior Analyst

 

(o)

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European Financials CDS Monitor – French, German, Italian, Spanish, and Greek bank swaps all traded lower last week. Spanish banks were notably improved last week, with some reference entities seeing swaps decline by more than 20%.

 

European Banking Monitor: QE3 has Landed... Now What? - 33. banks

 

Euribor-OIS spread – The Euribor-OIS spread tightened by 1 bps to 17 bps. We're not sure how much lower this series can go from here.  The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States.  Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal.  By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending.  Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk.

 

European Banking Monitor: QE3 has Landed... Now What? - 33. euribor

 

ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility – The ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility measures banks’ overnight deposits with the ECB.  Taken in conjunction with excess reserves, the ECB deposit facility measures excess liquidity in the Euro banking system.  An increase in this metric shows that banks are borrowing from the ECB.  In other words, the deposit facility measures one element of the ECB response to the crisis.  

 

European Banking Monitor: QE3 has Landed... Now What? - 33. facility


IDEA ALERT: SHORT BLMN

Takeaway: $BLMN is immediate-term TRADE overbought.

Today, Keith shorted the BLMN love-fest we are seeing from the sell-side at $15 today post IPO initiations of coverage. Management is confident in its ability to achieve its stated goals and the sell-side seems convinced also.  

 

As we see it, there has clearly not been much progress in fixing this company since it was taken private in 2006.  The primary difference in the company's position, from our purview, is that casual dining now faces a more uncertain outlook dictated by demographic and economic headwinds.  To achieve its goals, the company requires strong sales and management attacking the middle of the P&L.  The macro environment will hamper BLMN's efforts and ultimately, we believe, actual results are likely to come in below where expectations currently sit.  Among the macro issues we see as relevant for BLMN are the following:

  • Accelerating food inflation
  • Soft labor market
  • Rising gas prices
  • Long-term demographic headwing

To conclude, we do not subscribe to the emerging consensus that daypart expansion, enhanced marketing, or other "easy" drivers of earnings growth are ready-to-go, sure-fire winners for BLMN.  As we've said before, Don Corleone would wonder why such generosity is being afforded the investment community.  Why weren't these initiatives undertaken prior to the company coming public? 

 

We do not believe that a lot has changed since 2007 where BLMN is concerned.  The stock is immediate-term TRADE overbought.

 

IDEA ALERT: SHORT BLMN - BLMN levels1

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst

 

 

 


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AN EVEN STRONGER WEEK IN MACAU

Takeaway: Raising our Sept GGR growth forecast to 14-21%

Table revenues were very strong this past week in Macau averaging HK$868 million per day.  Average daily table revenues increased 26% YoY, 10% over the prior week, and was 12% higher than August.  We must caution that business typically slows in the last week of September as we approach Golden Week.  This year, however, Sands Cotai Central will open Pacific and the Sheraton rooms which could offset some of the seasonal slowdown. 

 

We are raising our full month September GGR forecast to HK$23.5-25.0 billion which would represent YoY growth of 14% to 21%.  We continue to be bullish on the Macau stocks.

 

AN EVEN STRONGER WEEK IN MACAU - macau1

 

After a hold impacted start to the month, LVS’s share climbed back towards normal while WYNN moved lower but still way above trend.  SJM and MGM are both having above trend months.  However, it’s still too early in the month to reach any definitive market share conclusions.

 

AN EVEN STRONGER WEEK IN MACAU - macau2


Burning The Buck

BURNING THE BUCK

 

 

CLIENT TALKING POINTS

 

BURNING THE BUCK

Debasing the dollar is the name of the game these days. With the growth slowing, we’ve increased our fixed-income asset allocation and have it nearly maxed out at 30%. Why? We’re buyers of the TLT ETF on red. Stocks and commodities may get a short-term jolt when Bernanke comes out swinging, but after the party dies down, it’s time to reconsider what to do with your portfolio. You can’t just keep holding on to longs and praying for more Jackson Hole-esque speeches. Yields on the 10-year are up, commodities are up and oil is up with gasoline approaching $4 a gallon (it’s already here in New York). These shenanigans will continue week after week as the US dollar is destroyed by the Fed as It tries to inflate our economy. But things change – remember that.

 

 

CHINA CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE

Chinese stocks have been getting smoked and are down nearly -16% since May. And overnight, stocks dropped -2.1%. If this isn’t a sign that China growth is slowing, then we don’t know what is. People still keep warning of a coming “crash” in China. That crash has already happened and is a thing of the past. The crash is continuing, not beginning. And with China down, copper continues to head lower with futures falling -1% this morning and failing March highs. “If you build it, they will come,” worked well for Kevin Costner in Field of Dreams but it doesn’t work for the Chinese housing market. There won’t be any kind of stimulus a la Bernanke anytime soon because they realize the repercussions of higher oil prices and food prices.

 

 

_______________________________________________________

 

ASSET ALLOCATION

 

Cash:                  DOWN

 

U.S. Equities:   Flat

 

Int'l Equities:   Flat   

 

Commodities: Flat

 

Fixed Income:  UP

 

Int'l Currencies: Flat  

 

 

_______________________________________________________

 

TOP LONG IDEAS

 

NIKE INC (NKE)

Nike’s challenges are well-telegraphed. But the reality is that its top line is extremely strong, and the Olympics has just given Nike all the ammo it needs to marry product with marketing and grow in the 10% range for the next 2 years. With margin pressures easing, and Cole Haan and Umbro soon to be divested, the model is getting more focused and profitable.

  • TRADE:  LONG
  • TREND:  LONG
  • TAIL:      LONG            

 

PACCAR (PCAR)

Emissions regulations in the US focusing on greenhouse gases should end the disruptive pre-buy cycle and allow PCAR to improve margins. Improved capacity utilization, truck fleet aging, and less volatile used truck prices all should support higher long-run profitability. In the near-term, Paccar may benefit from engine certification issues at Navistar, allowing it to gain market share. Longer-term, Paccar enjos a strong position in a structurally advantaged industry and an attractive valuation.

  • TRADE:  LONG
  • TREND:  LONG
  • TAIL:      LONG

 

LAS VEGAS SANDS (LVS)

LVS finally reached and has maintained its 20% Macau gaming share, thanks to Sands Cotai Central (SCC). With SCC continuing to ramp up, we expect that level to hold and maybe, even improve. Macau sentiment has reached a yearly low but we see improvement ahead.

  • TRADE:  LONG
  • TREND:  NEUTRAL
  • TAIL:      NEUTRAL

  

_______________________________________________________

 

THREE FOR THE ROAD

 

TWEET OF THE DAY

“Overheard on Wall and Broad: "Is this an Occupy protest or are they filming the sequel to Newsies?”” -@ReformedBroker

 

 

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“A superstition is a premature explanation that overstays its time.” –George Iles

                       

 

STAT OF THE DAY

Italy’s short selling ban expired Friday night. Have at it.

 

 

 


THE M3: LAND FREEZE/MSC; SJM COTAI; GUANGZHOU-ZHUHAI RAILWAY; GONGBEI PORT; S'PORE HOME SALES; VISA

The Macau Metro Monitor, September 17, 2012

 

 

LAND FREEZE FOR CASINOS STILL ON: FRANCIS TAM Macau Business

Secretary Tam said that the freeze on new land for casinos continues to remain in place.  In 2008, Macau CEO Edmund Ho Hau Wah announced a freeze on new land for casinos but pledged to honour existing agreements with operators.  That included all casino projects filed before 2008 and still under consideration. But Mr Tam said that any gaming operator could still file requests to the gaming regulator to open new casinos, if it didn’t involve a land grant.

 

According to some analysts, this is how MPEL is likely to include a casino at its Studio City project in Cotai. This method has previously been allowed for gambling facilities in new hotel-casinos that are not fully-owned by a gaming operator, as it is the case of Studio City.  Because the land is granted to companies that don’t have a casino licence (or are not fully-owned subsidiaries of a concessionaire), the inclusion of gaming facilities in the land contract could raise legal issues.


In such cases, the request to include a casino is therefore made separately from the land concession request, and by a licenced gaming operator. The gaming licence holder requests government approval to operate gambling facilities as a service provider at those properties.  This is the kind of arrangement that allowed the Ponte 16 and L’Arc casino-hotels to accommodate gaming facilities.

 

SJM WANTS TO HAVE 600 TABLES IN COTAI Macau Business

CEO Ambrose So said SJM wants to have up to 600 live gaming tables in Cotai.  

 

GUANGZHOU TO ZHUHAI RAILWAY COMMENCED IN OCTOBER Macau Daily News

The Guangzhou-Zhuhai Intercity Railway between Jinding and Gongbei, will be operational in October.  The extension connecting Gongbei and Hengqin will open by the end of 2012.  Guangdong and Macau has reached an agreement on the route design so that the extended section will have a seamless connection with Macau's light rail system. The next extension project will connect Hengqin with the Zhuhai Airport.

 

GONGBEI PORT EXPANSION TO BE COMPLETED BY END OF 2012 Macau Daily News

Phase I of the Gongbei port expansion project is expected to be finished in early 2013, expecting to handle a daily passenger capacity of up to 350,000 and when the entire project is completed, the clearance capacity can be raised to 500,000 people daily.

 

SINGAPORE PRIVATE HOME SALES DOWN 27% IN AUGUST Reuters

Developers in Singapore sold 1,421 residential units last month excluding executive condominiums (EC), a category of apartments reserved mainly for Singaporeans, down from 1,946 in July, but higher than 1,371 in June.  Including ECs, August home sales was 1,539 units, down 25.7% from July.  The decline in home sales in August could have been partly due to the Hungry Ghost Month which typically sees fewer buyers in the market. 

 

MAINLAND CONSIDERING MULTI-ENTRY VISA FOR ZHUHAI CITIZENS Macau Daily News

Beijing is considering to grant Zhuhai citizens multi-entry visa to Macau, however, a timetable for such is yet to be confirmed.  Responsible authorities are still studying on the feasibility and consulting the Macau government to assess whether the checkpoint could handle the passenger capacity and also whether Macau can handle an increase in tourist arrivals.  Qualified permanent residents account for 1 million.

 


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