TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – September 17, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 40 points or -2.24% downside to 1433 and 0.49% upside to 1473.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 09/14 NYSE 1130
- Decrease versus the prior day’s trading of 1701
- VOLUME: on 09/14 NYSE 899.79
- Increase versus prior day’s trading of 12.15%
- VIX: as of 09/14 was at 14.51
- Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 3.27%
- Year-to-date decrease of -37.99%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 09/14 closed at 1.06
- Down from the day prior at 1.11
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 28.86
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.87%
- Unchanged from prior day’s trading
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.63
- Up from prior day’s trading at 1.62
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)
- Rates Weekly Agenda
- 8:30am: Empire State Manuf., Sept. est. -2 (prior -5.85)
- 11am: Fed to buy $4.5b-$5.5b notes due 11/15/2020-8/15/2022
- 1am: Fed to sell $7b-$8b in notes 12/31/2014-5/31/2015
- 11:30am: U.S. to sell 3-mo, 6-mo bills
- 4pm: USDA crop-condition reports
GOVERNMENT:
- House, Senate in session
- U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta begins China visit
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Homebuilding probably climbed with sales: U.S. eco preview
- China home sales fall 4.7% in week ended Sept. 14: CEBM
- Obama administration to announce trade complaints against China in Ohio
- Ford picked by Canadian auto union as target in labor talks; current labor contact expires at 11:59pm tonight
- Finance industry warns of “cliff effect” in ECB bond plan
- Russian central bank starts $5b sale of Sberbank shares
- India’s central bank unexpectedly cuts cash reserve ratio to 4.5%; holds key interest rate at 8%
- BAE/EADS merger may flush out other suitors, Moody’s says
- U.S. junk-bond yields fall below 7% for fist time: index data
- Shell won’t drill for oil in Alaska this year after dome damaged
- Emanuel promises suit to end Chicago strike as teacher balk on contract
- Rosh Hashanah/Jewish New Year begins
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
COPPER – China down, Copper down almost 1% here this morning, after taking a vertical 3wk leap at its Feb/Mar highs; lower-long term highs remain intact.
- Bullish Wagers at 16-Month High as Citi Sees Gains: Commodities
- Hedge Funds Boost Bets as QE3 Pushes Oil to $100: Energy Markets
- U.S. Hooked on Russian Crude Amid Shale Boom: Chart of the Day
- Copper Falls on Speculation Rally to 4-Month High Was Overdone
- Oil Trades Near Four-Month High on Signs of Improving Economy
- Gold Seen Gaining in London as Stimulus Boosts Investor Demand
- Wheat Drops as Rains Improve Crop Prospects in U.S., Australia
- Coffee Rises in New York on Brazil Quality Concerns; Cocoa Falls
- Ex-Touradji Trader Crone Starts Citrine Commodity Hedge Fund
- Low Prices May Keep Aluminum Surplus Manageable in Near Term
- Fed’s QE3 Signals Gold Rise to $2,000 by March: Chart of the Day
- Rebar in Shanghai Declines on China Economic Slowdown Concern
- Blackouts Spur $18 Billion Power Grid Upgrade: Corporate India
- Piracy Fight Goes Awry as Nations Fail to Stop Killing Fishermen
- Myanmar Gets Record Investment After Years of Isolation: Energy
- Producer Destocking Balances Higher Exchange Aluminum Inventory
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
CHINA – Chinese stocks got smoked for a -2.1% drop, snapping my immediate-term TRADE line of 2107 support on the Shanghai Comp again overnight after China refuses to deliver on stimulus expectations (Food/Oil and Hong Kong property bubble up is not what they want more of via Qe3). Japan vs China heating up the headlines too.
SINGAPORE – We may have had the 3wk central planning rip in asset inflation wrong, but that’s making us more right on #GrowthSlowing, globally. Singapore just printed a bomb of a non-oil Export report at -10.6% y/y for AUG. That’s an important Global Macro leading indicator as we head into a very low growth rev/eps season.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team
