THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – September 17, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 40 points or -2.24% downside to 1433 and 0.49% upside to 1473. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


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EQUITY SENTIMENT: 

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 09/14 NYSE 1130
    • Decrease versus the prior day’s trading of 1701
  • VOLUME: on 09/14 NYSE 899.79
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 12.15%
  • VIX:  as of 09/14 was at 14.51
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 3.27%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -37.99%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 09/14 closed at 1.06
    • Down  from the day prior at 1.11 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 28.86
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.87%
    • Unchanged from prior day’s trading
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.63
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.62 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • Rates Weekly Agenda
  • 8:30am: Empire State Manuf., Sept. est. -2 (prior -5.85)
  • 11am: Fed to buy $4.5b-$5.5b notes due 11/15/2020-8/15/2022
  • 1am: Fed to sell $7b-$8b in notes 12/31/2014-5/31/2015
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell 3-mo, 6-mo bills
  • 4pm: USDA crop-condition reports 

GOVERNMENT:

    • House, Senate in session
    • U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta begins China visit

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Homebuilding probably climbed with sales: U.S. eco preview
  • China home sales fall 4.7% in week ended Sept. 14: CEBM
  • Obama administration to announce trade complaints against China in Ohio
  • Ford picked by Canadian auto union as target in labor talks; current labor contact expires at 11:59pm tonight
  • Finance industry warns of “cliff effect” in ECB bond plan
  • Russian central bank starts $5b sale of Sberbank shares
  • India’s central bank unexpectedly cuts cash reserve ratio to 4.5%; holds key interest rate at 8%
  • BAE/EADS merger may flush out other suitors, Moody’s says
  • U.S. junk-bond yields fall below 7% for fist time: index data
  • Shell won’t drill for oil in Alaska this year after dome damaged
  • Emanuel promises suit to end Chicago strike as teacher balk on contract
  • Rosh Hashanah/Jewish New Year begins

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

COPPER – China down, Copper down almost 1% here this morning, after taking a vertical 3wk leap at its Feb/Mar highs; lower-long term highs remain intact.

  • Bullish Wagers at 16-Month High as Citi Sees Gains: Commodities
  • Hedge Funds Boost Bets as QE3 Pushes Oil to $100: Energy Markets
  • U.S. Hooked on Russian Crude Amid Shale Boom: Chart of the Day
  • Copper Falls on Speculation Rally to 4-Month High Was Overdone
  • Oil Trades Near Four-Month High on Signs of Improving Economy
  • Gold Seen Gaining in London as Stimulus Boosts Investor Demand
  • Wheat Drops as Rains Improve Crop Prospects in U.S., Australia
  • Coffee Rises in New York on Brazil Quality Concerns; Cocoa Falls
  • Ex-Touradji Trader Crone Starts Citrine Commodity Hedge Fund
  • Low Prices May Keep Aluminum Surplus Manageable in Near Term
  • Fed’s QE3 Signals Gold Rise to $2,000 by March: Chart of the Day
  • Rebar in Shanghai Declines on China Economic Slowdown Concern
  • Blackouts Spur $18 Billion Power Grid Upgrade: Corporate India
  • Piracy Fight Goes Awry as Nations Fail to Stop Killing Fishermen
  • Myanmar Gets Record Investment After Years of Isolation: Energy
  • Producer Destocking Balances Higher Exchange Aluminum Inventory

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CURRENCIES


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EUROPEAN MARKETS


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ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – Chinese stocks got smoked for a -2.1% drop, snapping my immediate-term TRADE line of 2107 support on the Shanghai Comp again overnight after China refuses to deliver on stimulus expectations (Food/Oil and Hong Kong property bubble up is not what they want more of via Qe3). Japan vs China heating up the headlines too.

SINGAPORE – We may have had the 3wk central planning rip in asset inflation wrong, but that’s making us more right on #GrowthSlowing, globally. Singapore just printed a bomb of a non-oil Export report at -10.6% y/y for AUG. That’s an important Global Macro leading indicator as we head into a very low growth rev/eps season.

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team