THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

09/14/12 08:11AM EDT

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – September 14, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 36 points or -2.26% downside to 1427 and 0.21% upside to 1463. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

EQUITY SENTIMENT: 

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 09/13 NYSE 1701
    • Increase versus the prior day’s trading of 778
  • VOLUME: on 09/13 NYSE 802.31
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 20.86%
  • VIX:  as of 09/13 was at 14.05
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -11.08%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -39.96%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 09/13 closed at 1.11
    • Down  from the day prior at 1.12 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


Qe USA – never, in US economic history, has a > $4 national avg at the pump NOT slowed US economic growth; never is a long time; see our Qe note from yesterday showing you the 3 most powerful ramps in gas prices and what the US economy immediately did next (mid-2008, mid-2011, and Q1 of 2012). Its only not obvious to the willfully blind. 

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 29.21
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.81%
    • Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.72%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.58
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.49

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 8:30am: Consumer Price Index M/m, Aug., est. 0.6% (prior 0.0%)
  • 8:30am: Advance Retail Sales, Aug. est. 0.8% (prior 0.8%)
  • 9:15am: Industrial Production, Aug., est. -0.1% (prior 0.6%)
  • 9:15am: Capacity Utilization, Aug., est. 79.2% (prior 79.3%)
  • 9:55am: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Sept. preliminary, est. 74.0 (prior 74.3)
  • 10am: Business Inventories, July, est. -0.3% (prior 0.1%)
  • 11am: Fed to buy $1.5b-$2b notes due 2/15/2036-8/15/2042
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count
  • 1pm: Fed’s Lockhart at employment conference in Atlanta
  • 1:45pm Fed’s Raskin speaks in Michigan on economy

GOVERNMENT:

    • Washington Day Ahead agenda
    • SEC holds a public hearing on ways to promote stability in markets reliant on highly automated trading systems; will focus on how market participants design, implement and manage trading technology after glitches disrupted Facebook’s initial public offering and pushed Knight Capital to brink of bankruptcy, 10am
    • ITC Judge releases findings in patent-infringement case that Samsung filed against Apple over smartphone features and ways to transmit data, after 9am
    • Treasury Undersecretary for Domestic Finance Mary Miller speaks at American Banker conference. Arlington, Va. 2:15pm
    • Transportation Secretary Ray Lahood, FTA Administrator Peter Rogoff make transit funding announcement, 12:30pm
    • Congressional Robotics Caucus holds briefing on National Robotics Initiative, 12:30pm
    • House, Senate in session

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Germany’s Schaeuble cautions Spain against a full bailout
  • U.S. retail sales probably improved in Aug. on auto demand
  • Western Digital cuts rev. view, begins div. and $1.5b buyback
  • Peregrine’s Wasendorf released on bails after guilty plea
  • Visteon said to consider Leuliette as CEO while eyeing electronics unit
  • Time CEO Lang seeks to unify web and print advertising
  • Japan tells China to withdraw ships near disputed islands
  • Italian 10y yields fall below 5% for first time since March
  • California Attorney General investigates doctor-hospital deals: WSJ

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Corn Bulls Retreat as Near-Record Costs Curb Demand: Commodities
  • Beef Premium Spurring Demand for Cheaper Pork: Chart of the Day
  • Oil Rises to $100 for First Time Since May After Fed Stimulus
  • Commodities Post Longest Rally Since 2010 as Fed Boosts Outlook
  • Platinum Heads for Longest Winning Run in 25 Years; Gold Rallies
  • Aluminum Heads for the Longest Rally in at Least 25 Years
  • Wheat Rises on Egyptian Purchase of French Grain, U.S. Drought
  • Coffee Headed for Longest Rally in Four Months; Cocoa Advances
  • Japan Draws Curtain on Nuclear Energy Following Germany: Energy
  • Rebar in Shanghai Gains to Three-Week High on Fed Stimulus Plan
  • Aluminum Backwardation Looms as Warehouse Backlog Limits Supply
  • Pemex’s Missing Oil Surges to All-Time High: Chart of the Day
  • Oil May Fall on Projected Supply Gain After Isaac, Survey Shows
  • Sugar Bulls Ascend as Rain Returning to Top Producer Brazil
  • Copper Jumps, Heads for Highest Close Since May on Fed Stimulus
  • Storm Effect on Oil Prices Waning as Shale Booms: Energy Markets

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS


Qe EUROPE – ok, when you have economic stagflation (zero to negative growth + inflation), what you really need (if you have a growth problem) is another rip in food/energy prices; that’ll get things fixed! $117.35 Brent Oil last, +33% since June.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

ASIAN MARKETS


Qe ASIA – straight up moves in the KOSPI +3.2%, Hang Seng +2.9%, and Nikkei +1.8%, but all to lower-highs vs Feb-March; no idea how the math works on commodity demand slowing as prices are rising for Asian export producers; Bernanke doesn’t care.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team

© 2024 Hedgeye Risk Management, LLC. The information contained herein is the property of Hedgeye, which reserves all rights thereto. Redistribution of any part of this information is prohibited without the express written consent of Hedgeye. Hedgeye is not responsible for any errors in or omissions to this information, or for any consequences that may result from the use of this information.