TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – September 14, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 36 points or -2.26% downside to 1427 and 0.21% upside to 1463.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 09/13 NYSE 1701
- Increase versus the prior day’s trading of 778
- VOLUME: on 09/13 NYSE 802.31
- Increase versus prior day’s trading of 20.86%
- VIX: as of 09/13 was at 14.05
- Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -11.08%
- Year-to-date decrease of -39.96%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 09/13 closed at 1.11
- Down from the day prior at 1.12
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
Qe USA – never, in US economic history, has a > $4 national avg at the pump NOT slowed US economic growth; never is a long time; see our Qe note from yesterday showing you the 3 most powerful ramps in gas prices and what the US economy immediately did next (mid-2008, mid-2011, and Q1 of 2012). Its only not obvious to the willfully blind.
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 29.21
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.81%
- Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.72%
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.58
- Up from prior day’s trading at 1.49
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)
- 8:30am: Consumer Price Index M/m, Aug., est. 0.6% (prior 0.0%)
- 8:30am: Advance Retail Sales, Aug. est. 0.8% (prior 0.8%)
- 9:15am: Industrial Production, Aug., est. -0.1% (prior 0.6%)
- 9:15am: Capacity Utilization, Aug., est. 79.2% (prior 79.3%)
- 9:55am: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Sept. preliminary, est. 74.0 (prior 74.3)
- 10am: Business Inventories, July, est. -0.3% (prior 0.1%)
- 11am: Fed to buy $1.5b-$2b notes due 2/15/2036-8/15/2042
- 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count
- 1pm: Fed’s Lockhart at employment conference in Atlanta
- 1:45pm Fed’s Raskin speaks in Michigan on economy
GOVERNMENT:
- Washington Day Ahead agenda
- SEC holds a public hearing on ways to promote stability in markets reliant on highly automated trading systems; will focus on how market participants design, implement and manage trading technology after glitches disrupted Facebook’s initial public offering and pushed Knight Capital to brink of bankruptcy, 10am
- ITC Judge releases findings in patent-infringement case that Samsung filed against Apple over smartphone features and ways to transmit data, after 9am
- Treasury Undersecretary for Domestic Finance Mary Miller speaks at American Banker conference. Arlington, Va. 2:15pm
- Transportation Secretary Ray Lahood, FTA Administrator Peter Rogoff make transit funding announcement, 12:30pm
- Congressional Robotics Caucus holds briefing on National Robotics Initiative, 12:30pm
- House, Senate in session
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Germany’s Schaeuble cautions Spain against a full bailout
- U.S. retail sales probably improved in Aug. on auto demand
- Western Digital cuts rev. view, begins div. and $1.5b buyback
- Peregrine’s Wasendorf released on bails after guilty plea
- Visteon said to consider Leuliette as CEO while eyeing electronics unit
- Time CEO Lang seeks to unify web and print advertising
- Japan tells China to withdraw ships near disputed islands
- Italian 10y yields fall below 5% for first time since March
- California Attorney General investigates doctor-hospital deals: WSJ
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Corn Bulls Retreat as Near-Record Costs Curb Demand: Commodities
- Beef Premium Spurring Demand for Cheaper Pork: Chart of the Day
- Oil Rises to $100 for First Time Since May After Fed Stimulus
- Commodities Post Longest Rally Since 2010 as Fed Boosts Outlook
- Platinum Heads for Longest Winning Run in 25 Years; Gold Rallies
- Aluminum Heads for the Longest Rally in at Least 25 Years
- Wheat Rises on Egyptian Purchase of French Grain, U.S. Drought
- Coffee Headed for Longest Rally in Four Months; Cocoa Advances
- Japan Draws Curtain on Nuclear Energy Following Germany: Energy
- Rebar in Shanghai Gains to Three-Week High on Fed Stimulus Plan
- Aluminum Backwardation Looms as Warehouse Backlog Limits Supply
- Pemex’s Missing Oil Surges to All-Time High: Chart of the Day
- Oil May Fall on Projected Supply Gain After Isaac, Survey Shows
- Sugar Bulls Ascend as Rain Returning to Top Producer Brazil
- Copper Jumps, Heads for Highest Close Since May on Fed Stimulus
- Storm Effect on Oil Prices Waning as Shale Booms: Energy Markets
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
Qe EUROPE – ok, when you have economic stagflation (zero to negative growth + inflation), what you really need (if you have a growth problem) is another rip in food/energy prices; that’ll get things fixed! $117.35 Brent Oil last, +33% since June.
ASIAN MARKETS
Qe ASIA – straight up moves in the KOSPI +3.2%, Hang Seng +2.9%, and Nikkei +1.8%, but all to lower-highs vs Feb-March; no idea how the math works on commodity demand slowing as prices are rising for Asian export producers; Bernanke doesn’t care.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team
