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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – September 14, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 36 points or -2.26% downside to 1427 and 0.21% upside to 1463. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

EQUITY SENTIMENT: 

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 09/13 NYSE 1701
    • Increase versus the prior day’s trading of 778
  • VOLUME: on 09/13 NYSE 802.31
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 20.86%
  • VIX:  as of 09/13 was at 14.05
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -11.08%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -39.96%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 09/13 closed at 1.11
    • Down  from the day prior at 1.12 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


Qe USA – never, in US economic history, has a > $4 national avg at the pump NOT slowed US economic growth; never is a long time; see our Qe note from yesterday showing you the 3 most powerful ramps in gas prices and what the US economy immediately did next (mid-2008, mid-2011, and Q1 of 2012). Its only not obvious to the willfully blind. 

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 29.21
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.81%
    • Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.72%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.58
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.49

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 8:30am: Consumer Price Index M/m, Aug., est. 0.6% (prior 0.0%)
  • 8:30am: Advance Retail Sales, Aug. est. 0.8% (prior 0.8%)
  • 9:15am: Industrial Production, Aug., est. -0.1% (prior 0.6%)
  • 9:15am: Capacity Utilization, Aug., est. 79.2% (prior 79.3%)
  • 9:55am: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Sept. preliminary, est. 74.0 (prior 74.3)
  • 10am: Business Inventories, July, est. -0.3% (prior 0.1%)
  • 11am: Fed to buy $1.5b-$2b notes due 2/15/2036-8/15/2042
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count
  • 1pm: Fed’s Lockhart at employment conference in Atlanta
  • 1:45pm Fed’s Raskin speaks in Michigan on economy

GOVERNMENT:

    • Washington Day Ahead agenda
    • SEC holds a public hearing on ways to promote stability in markets reliant on highly automated trading systems; will focus on how market participants design, implement and manage trading technology after glitches disrupted Facebook’s initial public offering and pushed Knight Capital to brink of bankruptcy, 10am
    • ITC Judge releases findings in patent-infringement case that Samsung filed against Apple over smartphone features and ways to transmit data, after 9am
    • Treasury Undersecretary for Domestic Finance Mary Miller speaks at American Banker conference. Arlington, Va. 2:15pm
    • Transportation Secretary Ray Lahood, FTA Administrator Peter Rogoff make transit funding announcement, 12:30pm
    • Congressional Robotics Caucus holds briefing on National Robotics Initiative, 12:30pm
    • House, Senate in session

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Germany’s Schaeuble cautions Spain against a full bailout
  • U.S. retail sales probably improved in Aug. on auto demand
  • Western Digital cuts rev. view, begins div. and $1.5b buyback
  • Peregrine’s Wasendorf released on bails after guilty plea
  • Visteon said to consider Leuliette as CEO while eyeing electronics unit
  • Time CEO Lang seeks to unify web and print advertising
  • Japan tells China to withdraw ships near disputed islands
  • Italian 10y yields fall below 5% for first time since March
  • California Attorney General investigates doctor-hospital deals: WSJ

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Corn Bulls Retreat as Near-Record Costs Curb Demand: Commodities
  • Beef Premium Spurring Demand for Cheaper Pork: Chart of the Day
  • Oil Rises to $100 for First Time Since May After Fed Stimulus
  • Commodities Post Longest Rally Since 2010 as Fed Boosts Outlook
  • Platinum Heads for Longest Winning Run in 25 Years; Gold Rallies
  • Aluminum Heads for the Longest Rally in at Least 25 Years
  • Wheat Rises on Egyptian Purchase of French Grain, U.S. Drought
  • Coffee Headed for Longest Rally in Four Months; Cocoa Advances
  • Japan Draws Curtain on Nuclear Energy Following Germany: Energy
  • Rebar in Shanghai Gains to Three-Week High on Fed Stimulus Plan
  • Aluminum Backwardation Looms as Warehouse Backlog Limits Supply
  • Pemex’s Missing Oil Surges to All-Time High: Chart of the Day
  • Oil May Fall on Projected Supply Gain After Isaac, Survey Shows
  • Sugar Bulls Ascend as Rain Returning to Top Producer Brazil
  • Copper Jumps, Heads for Highest Close Since May on Fed Stimulus
  • Storm Effect on Oil Prices Waning as Shale Booms: Energy Markets

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS


Qe EUROPE – ok, when you have economic stagflation (zero to negative growth + inflation), what you really need (if you have a growth problem) is another rip in food/energy prices; that’ll get things fixed! $117.35 Brent Oil last, +33% since June.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

ASIAN MARKETS


Qe ASIA – straight up moves in the KOSPI +3.2%, Hang Seng +2.9%, and Nikkei +1.8%, but all to lower-highs vs Feb-March; no idea how the math works on commodity demand slowing as prices are rising for Asian export producers; Bernanke doesn’t care.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team