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    MARKET EDGES

    Identify global risks and opportunities with essential macro intel using Hedgeye’s Market Edges.

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – September 12, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 27 points or -1.02% downside to 1419 and 0.87% upside to 1446. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

EQUITY SENTIMENT: 

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 09/11 NYSE 1030
    • Increase versus the prior day’s trading of -613
  • VOLUME: on 09/11 NYSE 666.98
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 8.26%
  • VIX:  as of 09/11 was at 16.41
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 0.80%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -29.87%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 09/11 closed at 1.64
    • Up  from the day prior at 1.61 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 30.22
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.74%
    • Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.70%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.50
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.46 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Sept. 7 (prior -2.50%)
  • 8:30am: Import Price Index M/m, Aug., est. 1.5% (prior -0.6%)
  • 8:30am: WASDE report on corn, soybean, others - Preview
  • 10am: Wholesale Inventories, July, est. 0.3% (prior -0.2%)
  • 10:30am: DoE Inventories
  • 11am: Fed to sell $7-$8b notes due 4/15/2014-11/30/2014
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $21b 10-yr notes
  • FOMC starts two-day meeting 

GOVERNMENT:

    • House, Senate in session
    • Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs will hold a hearing on the GSA; Acting Director Dan Tangherlini scheduled to testify on progress since the scandal over its Las Vegas conference
    • EPA, Energy Dept. sponsor conference on improving fuel efficiency of internal combustion engines
    • Acting Chairman Martin Gruenberg delivers opening remarks at FDIC meeting on national survey of “unbanked, under-banked” households, 8:45am
    • Better Markets Inc. releases report on cost of financial crisis, including lost wealth due to unemployment, stock market losses and housing value declines, reduced GDP, government bailouts and economic hardship, 1pm
    • U.S. International Trade Commission holds hearing on economic effects of Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement being negotiated in Leesburg, Va., 9am
    • Tim Hughes, general counsel for Space Exploration Technologies and former astronaut Garrett Reisman hold briefing on Space-X and privatization, 1:30pm
    • House Transportation subcommittee reviews FAA efforts to revamp U.S. aviation system with satellite-based tracking of aircraft instead of radar, known as NextGen, 10am
    • Census Bureau announces findings from “Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2011” report, which contains official national findings from the Current Population Survey, 10am

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • German court allows European bailout fund to go ahead
  • Apple unveils new version of iPhone today
  • Fed seen likely to announce 3rd round of bond purchases tomorrow
  • GE may sell $2.1b stake in Bank of Ayudhya in Thailand
  • Texas Instrument raises lower end of 3Q EPS view
  • Facebook CEO says co. to address benefits of mobile advertising
  • Spain may not need bailout after ECB’s bond-buying offer
  • Italy sells 1yr bills at lowest rate since March
  • Japan machinery orders in July rise more than forecast
  • Indian industrial output misses estimates as economy falters
  • DoubleLine considers adding stock funds to firm’s investments
  • Visa planning for CEO Saunders’ ‘impending retirement’
  • U.S. holiday sales may rise on first store visit gain since 2007
  • Google to offer fastest U.S. internet service in Kansas City
  • U.K. jobless claims fall most in 2yrs, defying recession

EARNINGS:

    • Dollarama (DOL CN) 7:30am, C$0.64
    • Pall (PLL) 5pm, $0.77

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

OIL - $116 and ramping; this will be Bernanke’s legacy, so we hope he’s comfortable with that. Don’t forget how ridiculous this is at this point; expectations for 0% int rates only went to 2013 in mid Jan; then he jacked Gold/Oil/Stocks on the 2014 move (that was Qe3 on Jan25; commodities peaked in Feb); now he’s going to 2015 and beyond…

  • Zinc Glut Diminishing as China Cuts Most Since ’04: Commodities
  • Brent-WTI Gap Sliding as North Sea Output Jumps: Energy Markets
  • Glencore Nears Xstrata Deal Prize as Qatar Takes Back Seat
  • Gold Jumps to Six-Month High as German Court Allows Bailout Fund
  • Copper Rises a Fourth Day as German Court Approves Bailout Fund
  • Oil Extends Gain After German Court Allows For ESM Ratification
  • Cocoa Falls on Price Gains as Ivorian Rains Return; Sugar Rises
  • Iron Ore Swaps Extend Retreat on Concern About Chinese Demand
  • Wheat Falls in Chicago Trading Before U.S. Crop Report
  • Cooking-Oil Imports by India to Jump as Local Supplies Decline
  • IEA Boosts Oil Demand Forecast, Sees ‘Comfortable’ Supply Levels
  • Coffee Market Doubts Colombia Bumper Crop: Chart of the Day
  • Platinum Holdings Poised for Record on Mining Disruptions
  • Lonmin Strike Talks Fail as South African Mine Unrest Grows
  • India Must End Sugar-Import Duty to Curb Prices, ED&F Man Says
  • Iberdrola to Keep Dividend as Galan Resists Atomic Tax: Energy

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS


GERMANY – its amazing, but true – the DAX has now shot the moon, trading well above its March highs; everything is fine now other than the economy. German, French, and Spanish CPI all tracking higher sequentially this morn (AUG numbers) as growth slows.

SPAIN – all of economic gravity is not yet lost as both Spain’s IBEX and Italy’s MIB haven’t made higher-highs vs March closing highs of 8591 and 17,133, respectively. Germany says there are conditions to the short squeeze; Spain says they don’t like conditions.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team