Macro Catalysts: Tuesday-Thursday

Hindsight is always crystal clear. Much like last Thursday, today’s gap up open was again one that should have been sold. I sold my long position in China (CAF), and shorted Korea (EWY) into that strength. Now I am long America (SPY) and net short Asia (IFN, EWY).

Now that the Treasury, Fed and FDIC have made their official “US Banking System” statement, all the market has left to trade on is noise. And from the Slum Dog Short Sellers to the manic media, there is plenty of it.

My proactive risk management plan is moving squarely to the Tuesday-Thursday Macro calendar catalysts where whatever leadership we have left in this country’s Financial System will have an open mike to be You Tubed by both the American public and global markets at large:

1. Obama gets his shot herding cats again in speaking to Congress
2. Bernanke will attempt to calm the Senate re today’s “Banking System Statement”
3. Case/Shiller House Prices will be horrendous (lagging economic indicator)

1. Bernanke gets his shot with the House, explaining today’s “Banking System Statement” again
2. Existing Home Sales for January are released (December’s number was better than expected)
3. Earnings season for US Retailers will continue to be as bad as expected

1. Obama’s 1st Budget is release, and he’ll have another chance to herd cats/calm the country
2. New Home Sales (January) are released
3. Jaime Dimon will attempt to find credibility at JPM’s Investor Day

Importantly, the US Government’s CAP (Capital Assistance Program) will be initiated on Wednesday – so there is plenty for Bernanke to be specific about. This market wants specifics. In addition to this CAP plan, I expect Bernanke to start walking the media’s manic horses to water on what TALF (term auction lending facility) means, how much of that capital that the government has started to put to work, etc…

In between now and Thursday, America’s largest banks will continue to go through Geithner’s proposed “Stress Tests” and, all the while, the groupthink associated with a freaked out US market crowd will find their price marking another capitulation bottom. Provided that the VIX stays tucked under the bearish intermediate Trend line of 52.59, my stress levels will hopefully remain relatively low.

Keith R. McCullough
CEO & Chief Investment Officer

Today 12PM ET: LIVE Review of $EXAS Earnings Call (A Hedgeye Best Idea Long)

Our Healthcare Team made a monster call to be long EXAS - hear their updated thoughts.

read more

Capital Brief: 5 Things to Watch Right Now In Washington

Here's a quick look at some key issues investors should keep an eye on from Hedgeye's JT Taylor and our team of Washington Policy analysts in D.C.

read more

Premium insight

[UNLOCKED] Today's Daily Trading Ranges

“If I could only have one thing of the many things we have it would be my daily ranges." Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough said recently.

read more

We'll Say It Again: Leave Your Politics Out of Your Portfolio

If your politics dictates your portfolio positioning, the Democrats and #NeverTrump crowd out there have had a hell of a week.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: 'Biggest Tax Cut Ever'

President Donald Trump's economic team unveiled what he called last week, "the biggest tax cut we’ve ever had.” Before you get too excited about that hang on a sec. "Trump Tax Reform ain’t gettin’ done anytime soon," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look.

read more

Neurofinance: The Psychology Behind When To Sell A Bull Market

"Most momentum investors stay invested too long, under-reacting and holding tight after truly bad news finally arrives to break the trend," writes MarketPsych's Richard Peterson.

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy the Dip? | $XLE

What the heck is happening in the Energy sector (XLE)? Energy stocks have trailed the S&P 500 by a whopping 15% in 2017. Before you buy the dip, here's what you need to know.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Hard-Headed Bears

How's this for "hard data"? So far, 107 of 497 S&P 500 companies have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 4.4% and 13.2% respectively.

read more

Premium insight

McCullough [Uncensored]: When People Say ‘Everyone is Bullish, That’s Bulls@#t’

“You wonder why the performance of the hedge fund indices is so horrendous,” says Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, “they’re all doing the same thing, after the market moves. You shouldn’t be paid for that.”

read more

SECTOR SPOTLIGHT Replay | Healthcare Analyst Tom Tobin Today at 2:30PM ET

Tune in to this edition of Sector Spotlight with Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin and Healthcare Policy analyst Emily Evans.

read more

Ouchy!! Wall Street Consensus Hit By Epic Short Squeeze

In the latest example of what not to do with your portfolio, we have Wall Street consensus positioning...

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more