THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

 

 

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – September 11, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 22 points or -0.71% downside to 1419 and 0.83% upside to 1441. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


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EQUITY SENTIMENT: 

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 09/10 NYSE -613
    • Decrease versus the prior day’s trading of 1083
  • VOLUME: on 09/10 NYSE 616.08
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -9.39%
  • VIX:  as of 09/10 was at 16.28
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of -13.21%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -30.43%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 09/10 closed at 1.61
    • Down  from the day prior at 1.82

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 30.79
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.67%
    • Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.65%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.43
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.41

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 7:30am: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, Aug., est. 91.4 (prior 91.2)
  • 7:30am/8:45am: ICSC/Redbook weekly sales
  • 8:30am: Trade Balance, July, est. -$44.0b (prior -$42.9b)
  • 10am: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Sept., est. 46.4 (prior 45.6)
  • 10am: JOLTs Job Openings, July, est. 3.740m (prior 3.762m)
  • 11am: Fed to buy $1.5b-2b notes due 2/15/2036-8/15/2042
  • 11:30am: U.S.to sell $40b 4-wk bills
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $32b 3-yr notes
  • 4:30pm: API inventories

GOVERNMENT:

    • House, Senate in session
    • Senate Foreign Relations marks up bills including “Increasing American Jobs Through Greater Exports to Africa Act”
    • House Oversight holds hearing on Operation Fast and Furious, 9:30am
    • House Energy panel holds hearing on anti-terrorism standards for chemical facilities, 10am
    • House Energy panel meets on H.R.4255, the “Accountability in Grants Act,” 10:15am
    • House Natural Resources holds hearing on electricity costs, 11:30am
    • House Financial Services panel holds hearing on terrorism risk insurance program, 10am
    • House Ways and Means holds hearing on IRS implementation, administration of health-care law, 10am
    • House Transportation holds hearing on Amtrak passenger rail service monopoly, competition with regional services, 10am
    • American Institute of Certified Public Accountants holds its National Conference on Banks and Savings Institutions, with speakers including Fed Chief Accountant Steven Merriett; Office of Comptroller of the Currency Chief Accountant Kathy Murphy; and FDIC Chief Accountant Robert Storch, 9:55am

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • AIG shrs valued at $18b - ~553.8m shrs at $32.50 each - sold by U.S., converting 4-year bailout into profit for taxpayers
  • Morgan Stanley won dispute with Citigroup over value of Smith Barney, of which it owns 51%: N.Y. Post
  • U.S. trade deficit probably grew to $44b in July from $42.9m
  • Texas Instruments releases mid-qtr update post-mkt
  • Samsung’s request for judge to lift prelim. ban on U.S. sales of its Galaxy Tab 10.1 tablet computer opposed by Apple
  • HarperCollins reached agreement with Amazon, other e- commerce cos. that results in lower prices for electronic books
  • Glencore still waiting for decision from Qatar Holding on whether it will support takeover of Xstrata
  • General Growth rejected investor Bill Ackman’s call to put itself up for sale, said it plans to remain independent
  • Apple may sell as many as 10m redesigned iPhones by end of Sept. according to Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster; expected to introduce new phone tomorrow
  • Burberry said full-year profit will disappoint amid more “challenging” environment; European luxury cos. drop
  • Infosys unit to buy Marsh & McLennan unit in India: WSJ
  • Assured Guaranty dodged downgrade as Moody’s failed to meet deadline, according to shareholder Wilbur Ross
  • Hiring plans among U.S. corps in 4Q little changed from previous 3 mos, ManpowerGroup said in employment index

EARNINGS:

    • United Natural Foods (UNFI) 7:30am, $0.51

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

OIL – so, Oil is only up +31% in basically a straight line since mid-June, and Bernanke will say there’s no inflation this wk; w/ unemployment and median incomes remaining a disaster, this is one of the biggest tragedies of the Qe experiment; what’s good for the few (stock market) is bad for the many (real-inflation adjusted consumption growth).

  • Soy Reserves Smallest in Four Decades After Drought: Commodities
  • Nuclear Repairs No Easy Sale as Cheap Gas Hits Utilities: Energy
  • Oil Supplies Fall to Five-Month Low in Survey: Energy Markets
  • Oil Trades Near Three-Week High on Outlook for Economic Stimulus
  • Corn Advances as Harvest Progress in U.S. Confirms Crop Damage
  • Copper Seen Declining on Speculation Two-Day Rally Was Overdone
  • Gold Advances on Outlook for Further Stimulus at Fed Meeting
  • Robusta Coffee Tracks Arabica as Investors Buy; Cocoa Advances
  • OPEC Sees ‘Abundant’ Oil Supply, May Cut 2013 Demand Estimates
  • Qatar Holds Out on Glencore Bid as Davis Heads for Xstrata Exit
  • Chemical-Tankers Seen Rallying 50% as Fleet Proves Busy: Freight
  • Sugar to Pile Up as Global Demand Stays Weak, Kingsman Says
  • Russia Volumes, LNG Cargoes to Weigh on Gas to 2013, SocGen Says
  • Talisman CEO Switch Speeds Up Sale Speculation: Corporate Canada
  • India’s Goa Bans Mining After Panel Pegs Loss at $6.3 Billion
  • German Next-Month Power Falls Before Court Ruling on Euro Fund

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CURRENCIES


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EUROPEAN MARKETS


SPAIN – not clear what Rajoy was thinking by telling the truth, but Spain is now on the tape opposing bailout conditions; that’s good for another lower-high (since March) in Spanish Equities (and the Eurostoxx50); $1.28 Euro isn’t good for German exports either.

 

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ASIAN MARKETS


ASIA – USD down is all good and fine for short-term politics (Bush did the same using Bernanke), but it’s bad for the rest of the world via commodity inflation; this continues to slow Asian growth and you can see that in the 2 big Asian Equity markets (China and Japan) that continued lower last night (-0.7%) after their 2-day squeeze.

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team