THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – September 10, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 19 points or -1.32% downside to 1419 and 0.01% upside to 1438. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


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EQUITY SENTIMENT: 

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 09/07 NYSE 1083
    • Decrease versus the prior day’s trading of 1763
  • VOLUME: on 09/07 NYSE 679.94
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -7.62%
  • VIX:  as of 09/07 was at 14.38
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -7.82%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -38.55%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 09/07 closed at 1.82
    • Up  from the day prior at 1.38 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


Qe – I for one didn’t think policy makers and the markets begging for them to do more of what has not work would get this far, but they have, sort of; “99% certainty” baked into the Bloomberg headline and 60% on another Qe from Reuters; for now, that trumps an awful US employment and growth scenario. Time to jam Americans w/ $5 at the pump, baby.

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 30.63
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.11%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.68%
    • Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.67%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.43
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.42 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 11am: Fed to buy $1b-$1.5b notes due 1/15/2019-2/15/2042
  • 11:30am: U.S. sells $32b 3-mo, $28b 6-mo bills
  • 3pm: Consumer Credit, July, est. $10.0b (prior $6.459b)
  • 4pm: USDA crop-conditions report

GOVERNMENT:

    • Secretary of State Clinton says U.S. “not setting deadlines” for Iran nuclear deal
    • U.S. Congress returns to work following August recess
    • Obama administration ordered U.S. agencies to identify three initiatives to cut paperwork required to comply with federal regulations by this date
    • White House urging Senate to vote as soon as this week on expansion of govt. mortgage refinancing program
    • U.S. Chamber of Commerce holds briefing on economic, workplace concerns of American businesses in election year

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Global central bankers meet in Basel to address collapse of confidence in Libor, led by BoE’s King
  • Transocean agreed to sell 38 shallow water drilling rigs for $1.05b to Shelf Drilling International
  • JPMorgan considering cutting 2012 bonuses for senior managers including CEO Jamie Dimon: WSJ
  • Morgan Stanley, Citi face deadline to announce results of Perella Weinberg mediation over MSSB
  • Smith Barney may be valued at ~$15b: N.Y. Post
  • XStrata CEO Davis said ready to quit after Glencore takeover
  • SEC has scheduled no action on proposal to raise standards for U.S. brokers advising retail investors
  • Slowing China output augurs more stimulus before power shift
  • AIG to buy up to $5b of stock in $18b Treasury offering; likely to cut U.S. stake below 50% 1st time since 2008 bailout
  • A $6.4b accord for U.S. drug, medical-device reviews set to unravel 3 mos. after taking effect
  • BP is said to near $6b sale of Gulf assets to Plains
  • FedEx, UPS won licenses to start domestic courier business in China; aren’t allowed to operate in Beijing
  • Las Vegas Sands ordered to explain to Nevada judge today how, why files from Macau ops ended up in U.S. while co. claimed Macau law prevented it from transferring them overseas
  • Reinsurers including Swiss Re, Allianz said industry’s M&A appetite will be subdued this year because of financial crisis
  • Oil & Natural Gas agreed to pay Hess $1b for stake in Azerbaijan’s largest oil fields, associated pipeline
  • Kellogg, KKR among cos. considering bids for United Biscuits’ snacks unit
  • Navistar shareholder Carl Icahn sent letter to company board, saying new management chosen without consultation
  • Obama administration drafting executive order to create program protecting vital computer networks from cyber attacks
  • Former UBS trader Kweku Adoboli’s trial begins
  • Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit speaks at Barclays conference

 EARNINGS:

    • John Wiley & Sons (JW/A) 8am, $0.73
    • Casey’s General Stores (CASY) 4pm, $0.95
    • Five Below (FIVE) After-mkt, $0.01
    • Palo Alto Networks (PANW) After-mkt, ($0.00)

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

COPPER – big league squeeze finding her crescendo in Copper this morning at lower long-term highs; Chinese stocks down for 4mths and up for 1.5 days + a stimulus rumor will do that, I guess – but do not forget the Copper spike in late Feb early March post Bernanke pushing goal posts on 0% to 2014 – now the goal post is implying 2015 – free moneys forever.

  • Hedge Funds Lift Bets to 16-Month High Before Rally: Commodities
  • Gas Bears Back Shale Boom as Isaac Rally Ebbs: Energy Markets
  • Oil Trades Near One-Week High on Outlook for Economic Stimulus
  • Ship Magnate Uses Gut in $11 Billion Bet Worst Since ’70s Ending
  • Copper Reaches 4-Month High as Chinese Data Fuel Stimulus Bets
  • Gold Trades Close to Six-Month High as Stimulus Bets Increase
  • Wheat Advances as U.S. Export Sales Rise, Russian Supplies Drop
  • Sugar Climbs on Speculation Demand May Be Improving; Cocoa Falls
  • Iron Ore Swaps for October Pass $100/Ton First Time Since August
  • China to Hold Second Shale-Gas Auction Next Month, Ministry Says
  • China Rebar Volumes Advance to Record on Government Spending
  • Gold Fields Halts Output at Kloof-Driefontein in Second Strike
  • Xstrata CEO Davis to Step Down Six Months After Planned Takeover
  • Nordic Next-Quarter Power Rises Most in Two Weeks on Dry Weather
  • U.K. Natural Gas Snaps Three-Day Gain as Demand Nears Record Low
  • Palm Oil Snaps Four-Day Losing Streak as Malaysian Exports Jump

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CURRENCIES


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EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

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ASIAN MARKETS


JAPAN – Japan’s Q2 GDP Growth of 0.7% y/y surprises on the downside (Nikkei -13.5% from March #GrowthSlowing highs as they haven’t actually done a US/ECB style Qe, yet) and Japan’s Fin. Services minister allegedly committed suicide overnight.

 

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

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7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

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Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

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GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

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Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

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Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

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Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

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People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

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UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

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Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

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Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

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An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

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