Here I Go Again: SP500 Levels, Refreshed

Takeaway: Growth Slowing will continue if commodities continue higher. Burning The Buck is a market trade, not an economic solution.

POSITIONS: Short SPY

 

“Here I go again on my own, like a drifter I was born to walk alone…”

 

But I’ve made up my mind, and shorted SPY one more time. I’m shorting it for different reasons than I would have yesterday, but the growth/earnings bulls of March 2012 change their thesis every other week, so I won’t sweat that.

 

Growth Slowing will continue if commodities continue higher. Burning The Buck is a market trade, not an economic solution.

 

Here are the lines in my model that matter to me most:

 

  1. Immediate-term TRADE overbought = 1437
  2. Intermediate-term TREND support = 1419

 

In other words, that’s your new risk range and overbought is as overbought does. If we snap 1419, that’s going to open up a whole new host of risks that I will not be exposed to. So we’ll wait, watch, and deal with that if we need to then.

 

What would have me become your huckleberry on the bull side of equities (bear side of bonds)? Easy answer: Growth Accelerating.

 

And it’s easier to see that not happening today than it was in March.

 

Enjoy the weekend,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Here I Go Again: SP500 Levels, Refreshed - 1


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