TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – September 7, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 16 points or -0.92% downside to 1419 and 0.20% upside to 1435.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 09/06 NYSE 1763
- Increase versus the prior day’s trading of -148
- VOLUME: on 09/06 NYSE 736
- Increase versus prior day’s trading of 8.93%
- VIX: as of 09/06 was at 15.60
- Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -12.06%
- Year-to-date decrease of -33.33%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 09/06 closed at 1.38
- Down from the day prior at 2.15
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 30.69
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.73%
- Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.68%
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.46
- Up from prior day’s trading at 1.42
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)
- 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, Aug., est. 130k (prior 163k)
- 8:30am: Unemployment Rate, Aug., est. 8.3% (prior 8.3%)
- 8:30am: Average Hourly Earnings M/m, All Employees, Aug., est. 0.2% (prior 0.1%)
- 11am: Fed to sell $7b-$8b notes due 2/15/2013-2/28/2014
- 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count
GOVERNMENT:
- Washington Day Ahead
- House, Senate not in session
- Comments due on proposed revisions to current capital rules being considered by Fed, FDIC, 5pm
- Medicare Payment Advisory Commission meets on outpatient therapy, hospital readmissions, 8:30am
- Solyndra LLC, the solar-panel maker that received a $535m government loan guarantee, may win court approval of statement describing bankruptcy exit plan
- EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson, Canadian Environment Minister Peter Kent hold signing ceremony for updated Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement
- Obama Seeks Second Term on Harder Path Leading to Better Place
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Less Hiring Probably Kept U.S. Jobless Rate Elevated in August
- HTC Wins Dismissal of Patent Lawsuit Due to False Statements
- HTC Patents Challenged by Apple Probably Valid, U.S. Judge Says
- Amazon Challenges Apple With Updated Kindles in Crowded Market
- Apple in talks for service similar to Pandora: WSJ
- Samsung Chips Said to Be Kept From New IPhone on Pricing
- FCC Said to Propose Market-Maker Role in U.S. Airwaves Auction
- Glencore Raises Xstrata Offer Ratio to 3.05x; Not a Firm Offer
- U.K. Industrial Output Jumps Most in 25 Years After Jubilee
- Monti Says ECB Plan Reduces Stigma as Rajoy Stalls on Aid
- Volkswagen Lowers Sales Target on European Debt Crisis Woes
- AIG Sells $2 Billion AIA Stake as it Seeks Funds for Buybacks
- Lufthansa Drops 1,000 Flights Amid Biggest Cabin Crew Strike
- China Backs Roads-to-Subways Construction Sparking Stock Rally
EARNINGS:
- Lululemon (LLL CN) 7:15am, $0.31
- Comverse Technology (CMVT) 7:30am, $0.08
- Brady (BRC) 8am, $0.52
- Kroger (KRO) 8:15am, $0.49 - Preview
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
COPPER – looks like everything else that’s gone straight down since the Feb-March highs on fundamental (demand slowing, supply building, etc.), squeezed right back up to a lower-high, hitting immediate-term TRADE resistance of $3.58/lb.
- Copper Trade Most Bullish Since October on Stimulus: Commodities
- Glencore Raises Xstrata Offer as Glasenberg Proposed as CEO
- Shale Boom Cuts Gulf Oil Premium to 24-Year Low: Energy Markets
- Crude Trades Near One-Week High as Slower Hiring Curbs Optimism
- Asia Fuel-Oil Crack Widens; Gasoil Swaps Rebound: Oil Products
- Hurricane Leslie to Resume Move Toward Bermuda After Stalling
- Deutsche Bank Faces Fine for U.S. Power Market Manipulation
- Soybeans Poised for First Weekly Loss Since July; Corn Declines
- Robusta Coffee Rises as Inventories Drop Further; Sugar Gains
- China’s Tin Demand to Decline as Europe, U.S. Economies Cool
- Oil May Fall as U.S. Output Rebounds From Isaac, Survey Shows
- Palm-Oil Shipments From Indonesia May Climb for Third Month
- Sugar Output in India’s Biggest Grower Set to Rise 11% on Rain
- Copper Traders Most Bullish Since October
- Copper Heads for Biggest Weekly Gain in 10 on Chinese Projects
- Record Corn Imports by China to Drive Rally, Rabobank Says
- Gold Drops as Rally to Six-Month High Spurs Sales; Silver Falls
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
GERMANY – get this, the DAX is now trading higher than where it was before global #GrowthSlowing started in March; if you nailed that, congratulations, because I certainly didn’t – just thankful we’re not short it here, because we should have been on fundamentals; policies to inflate will only slow Eurozone growth (and global growth) further. Spain, Italy, etc still making lower highs vs March.
ASIAN MARKETS
CHINA – more like 4mths down, 1 day up for Chinese stocks, but hoowah! What a move if you are a professional v-bottomer with a little looksy into headline rumoring; Shanghai +3.7% on rumors instead of reality; now what?
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team
