THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – September 6, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 16 points or -0.39% downside to 1398 and 0.75% upside to 1414. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


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EQUITY SENTIMENT: 

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 09/05 NYSE -148
    • Decrease versus the prior day’s trading of 541
  • VOLUME: on 09/05 NYSE 675.64
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 5.70%
  • VIX:  as of 09/05 was at 17.74
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -1.33%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -24.19%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 09/05 closed at 2.15
    • Up  from the day prior at 1.17

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 30.84
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.62%
    • Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.60%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.38
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.36

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 7am: Bank of England monetary policy committee decision
  • 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts Y/y, Aug. (prior -44.5%)
  • 7:45am: ECB ann. interest rates; governing council meets
  • 8am: RBC Consumer Outlook Index, Sept. (prior 46.4)
  • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, Aug., est. 140K (prior 163k)
  • 8:30am: Init. Jobless Claims, 9/1, est. 370k (prior 374k)
  • 9am: U.S. announces plans for sale of 3-year notes, 10-year notes, 30-year bonds
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Sept. 2 (prior -47.3)
  • 10am: ISM Non-Manuf. Composite, Aug. est. 52.5 (prior 52.6)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rate survey
  • 10:30am: EIA natural gas storage
  • 11am: DoE weekly inventories
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $1.5b-$2.0b notes due 2/15/2036-8/15/2042
  • ICSC Chain Store Sales Y/y, Aug. (prior 1.9%)

GOVERNMENT:

    • Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C.; Obama will formally accept his party’s nomination for president, outline his goals for nation
    • Bill Clinton nominated Obama for re-election at DNC
    • Fed releases financial disclosure forms of Chairman Ben Bernanke, other board members, 10am
    • House, Senate not in session
    • Negotiators for U.S., eight other Pacific-rim nations will tackle protections for intellectual property, such as pharmaceuticals, in talks in Leesburg, Va., through Sept. 15

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Draghi credibility at stake as mkts look to ECB to save euro
  • Supervalu to close 60 stores, take pretax charge
  • Growth in U.S. service industries probably eased in August
  • Clinton nominates Obama for re-election at Democratic Convention
  • AIG selling about $2b of AIA Group shares, terms show
  • Australia jobless rate unexpectedly falls, boosts currency
  • Spain sells EU3.5b of debt, meeting maximum target
  • Qantas allies with Emirates on Europe flights, ditching BA
  • Apple rivals try to outshine next IPhone with cool features
  • Amazon readies Kindle Fire update to keep up with Apple, Google
  • Apple urged by China dissident to act against one-child rule
  • Goldman Sachs sued by BayernLB over losses on mortgage bonds
  • Health Net ties to veteran-owned firm probed by agency watchdog
  • Apple TV no IPhone as talks bog down with media companies
  • Bloomberg Canada-Asia Dialog includes talk by Canada PM Stephen Harper

EARNINGS:

    • Navistar International (NAV) 6am, $(1.41) - Preview
    • Descartes (DSG CN) 6am, $0.14
    • Transcontinental (TCL/A CN) 7am, C$0.42
    • UTI Worldwide (UTIW) 8am, $0.23
    • Hovnanian (HOV) 9am, $(0.14) - Preview
    • North West Co (NWC CN) 10:01am, C$0.36
    • Quiksilver (ZQK) 4pm, $0.06
    • Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance (ULTA) 4:01pm, $0.51
    • Mattress Firm Holding (MFRM) 4:01pm, $0.28
    • Cooper Cos (COO) 4:01pm, $1.29
    • Infoblox (BLOX) 4:14pm, $0.01

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

GOLD – the more wrong I am immediate-term on short gold is the more right I’ll be on #GrowthSlowing – one perpetuates the other; Oil back up to $114 this morning as Gold gets pinned at a lower-high vs Feb with a singing -0.91 immediate-term correlation to Down Dollar, Up Euro.

COPPER – all the while, the Doctor doesn’t seem to care much for the gong show either (down this morning, failing at long-term TAIL risk support of $3.85lb, well off its $3.95 high made in Feb).

  • Hurricane Leslie Strengthens En Route to Bermuda, Canada
  • Platinum Buying Expands as Mining Strikes Escalate: Commodities
  • Gold Gains to Highest Since March as Euro Rallies on ECB Plan
  • UN Sees No Reason for Food Crisis as Prices Stabilize in August
  • Oil Rises a Second Day on U.S. Supply Drop, ECB Plan Optimism
  • Soybeans Drop to One-Week Low as U.S. Harvest May Top Forecast
  • Copper Trades at $7,686 a Ton as ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged
  • Goldman Sachs’s Currie Says Commodities May Jump Another 10%
  • Cocoa Reaches 11-Month High Even as Rains Improve; Coffee Falls
  • Rubber Advances as European Central Bank May Act to Tame Crisis
  • Jefferies Aims for Top Five Ranking on the London Metal Exchange
  • Cars Beating Plastics Makes Asia Gasoline Winner: Energy Markets
  • Asia Naphtha Profits Fall; Fuel-Oil Losses Narrow: Oil Products
  • Platinum Buying Expands Amid Mining Strikes
  • Goldman Sachs’s Currie Says Commodities May Advance Another 10%
  • Palm-Oil Veteran Mistry Says Indonesia Has ‘Hidden’ Reserves
  • Palm Oil Drops to Lowest Level in Three Weeks on Higher Supplies

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CURRENCIES


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EUROPEAN MARKETS

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ASIAN MARKETS


ASIA – Asian equity markets don’t seem to care much for this Western central planning gong show anymore; the higher expectations for money printed from the heavens get, the lower real inflation adjusted growth expectations go – pretty simple; Japan was flat, HK +0.34%, and Singapore was -0.3%; doing nothing, treading on 6wk lows.

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team