TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – September 4, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 18 points or -0.54% downside to 1399 and 0.74% upside to 1417.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/31 NYSE 1174
- Increase versus the prior day’s trading of -1294
- VOLUME: on 08/31 NYSE 746.07
- Increase versus prior day’s trading of 45.80%
- VIX: as of 08/31 was at 17.47
- Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -2.02%
- Year-to-date decrease of -25.34%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/31 closed at 1.84
- Up from the day prior at 1.42
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 34.33
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.57%
- Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.55%
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.35
- Up from prior day’s trading at 1.33
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)
- 8:58am: Markit US PMI Final, Aug., est. 51.9
- 10am: ISM Manufacturing, Aug., est. 50.0 (prior 49.8)
- 10am: ISM Prices Paid, Aug., est. 46.0 (prior 39.5)
- 10am: Construction Spending M/m, July, est. 0.4% (prior 0.4%)
- 11:30am: U.S. to sell $32b 3-mo, $28b 6-mo bills
- 4pm: USDA Crop-condition reports
GOVERNMENT:
- Washington Week Ahead: Democrats to Rally for Obama in N.C.
- Democratic National Convention: Re-nomination of Obama and Biden, speakers include First Lady Michelle Obama
- House, Senate not in session
- Clinton seeks unified Asean front to ease disputes w/ China
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Merkel/Monti lead diplomatic push as Draghi plan takes shape
- EU outlook cut by Moody’s on Germany, France, U.K. risks
- Manufacturing in U.S. probably stagnated amid global slowdown
- Light-vehicle sales rate may have climbed to 14.2m in August
- Valeant to purchase Medicis Pharmaceutical for $2.6b
- P&G directors face own challenges while keeping tabs on McDonald
- Euro-Area July producer-price inflation holds at 2 1/2-yr low
- Lufthansa cabin crew expand German strikes in salary dispute
- ‘Posession’ claims top film slot on sales of $21.3m
- Intel, eBay, Pandora present at Citi Tech conference
EARNINGS:
- Smithfield Foods (SFD) 6am, $0.45
- Campbell Soup (CPB) 7:30am, $0.38 - Preview
- Finisar (FNSR) 4pm, $0.14
- Francesca’s Holdings (FRAN) 4:01pm, $0.24
- Forest City Enterprises (FCE/A) 4:02pm, $0.06
- Guidewire Software (GWRE) 4:05pm, $0.04
- Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN) After-mkt
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
OIL – never, in human history, has > $100 Oil not perpetuated real (inflation adj) growth slowing. Maybe this time is different. Its probably not. Yield Spread (10s-2s) moved back to +133bps wide this past wk, only 10bps away from its slowest growth (implied) since 2008.
- Cotton Glut Extending Slump as Levi’s Costs Slide: Commodities
- German Power Swings at 7-Year Low Curb Trading: Energy Markets
- Dockwise Profits Aided by U.S. as Mine Sweepers Deploy: Freight
- Soybeans, Meal Climb to Records on U.S. Drought, Stimulus Bets
- Oil Advances to Highest Price in a Week on Stimulus Speculation
- Gold Seen Rising on Prospects for Further Central-Bank Stimulus
- Copper Seen Falling as EU Credit Rating Fuels Crisis Concern
- Iron Ore Trading Rose to Record Last Month as Prices Plunged
- Cocoa Rebounds as Supplies May Lag Behind Demand; Sugar Advances
- Record Gold Sales to Iran Profit Lira Bondholders: Turkey Credit
- India Rules Out Duty-Free Import of Raw Sugar on Local Supplies
- U.S. Shale Glut Means Gas Shortage for Mexican Industry: Energy
- Obama Gets Fossil-Fuels Boost After Green-Jobs Revolution Fades
- Soybeans, Meal Climb to Records on Drought
- Iron Ore Drops to Near Three-Year Low on China Growth Concerns
- U.K. Lawmakers Urge 2015 End for EU Sugar Quotas Capping Output
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
EUROPE – lower-highs across the board in European squeeze tapes as the markets w/ less short interest (FTSE, Swiss, etc) fall first this morn; how many more rumors, plans, etc do they have? We will see, but the FTSE just snapped my 5781 TRADE line.
ASIAN MARKETS
CHINA – somewhere in between golf and time w/ the kids this weekend, China reminded us that PMI sub 50 remains and that they won’t deliver the stimuli drugs w/ Oil at $116/barrel. Shanghai down another -0.75% overnight (-17% since May).
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team
