TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 30, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 18 points or -0.67% downside to 1401 and 0.60% upside to 1419.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/29 NYSE 526
- Increase versus the prior day’s trading of 386
- VOLUME: on 08/29 NYSE 509.30
- Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -1.39%
- VIX: as of 08/29 was at 17.06
- Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 3.46%
- Year-to-date decrease of -27.09%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/29 closed at 1.69
- Up from the day prior at 1.49
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 32.55
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.64%
- Decrease from prior day’s trading of 1.65%
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.38
- Unchanged from prior day’s trading
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)
- 8:30am: Personal Income, July, est. 0.3% (prior 0.5%)
- 8:30am: Personal Spending, July, est. 0.5% (prior 0.0%)
- 8:30am: PCE Deflator M/m, July, est. 0.1% (prior 0.1%)
- 8:30am: PCE Core M/m, July, est. 0.1% (prior 0.2%)
- 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Aug. 24, est. 370k (prior 372k)
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Aug. 26 (prior -47.4)
- 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
- 10:30am: EIA natural-gas change
- 11am: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity, Aug. est. 3 (prior 5)
- 11am: Fed to purchase $1.5b-$2b notes 2/15/2036-8/15/2042
- 1pm: U.S. to sell $29b 7-yr. notes
- TBA: ICSC Chain Store Sales Y/y, Aug. (prior 1.9%)
GOVERNMENT:
- Romney accepts Republican nomination as candidate for presidency
- House, Senate not in session
- FERC meets on coordination between natural gas, electricity markets in Mid-Atlantic Region, 9am
- SEC holds closed meeting on enforcement matters, 2pm
- California holds trial auction of carbon allowances, 1pm
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Isaac’s threat to offshore energy production eases
- China’s Wen says Spain, Italy and Greece must step up overhaul
- Barclays names Antony Jenkins as CEO to replace Diamond
- Euro-area economic confidence falls more than forecast
- CIBC 3Q earnings beat est.; boosts dividend to C$0.94
- Caterpillar says China growth may recover on stimulus
- Japan Air seeks $8.4b in biggest IPO since Facebook
- WPP cuts sales growth forecast as clients reduce spending
- German unemployment rises for 5th month in August
- Nokia Siemens said to be close to selling business-support unit
- Mando may buy former affiliate Halla Climate from Visteon
- Pandora jumps in extending trading after break-even 2Q earns
- Samsung unveils pen-equipped Galaxy phone to keep lead on Apple
- Comcast said near U.S. approval to encrypt cable signals
- Hewlett-Packard plans first Windows 8 touch-screen laptops
- August same-store sales may gain 1.8% on back-to-school
EARNINGS:
- Royal Bank of Canada (RY CN) 6am, C$1.18
- China Sunergy (CSUN) 6am, $(1.41)
- Toronto-Dominion (TD CN) 6:30am, C$1.83
- Ciena (CIEN US) 7am, $(0.02)
- Esterline Technologies (ESL) 4pm, $1.11
- Cascade (CASC) 4pm, $1.29
- Zumiez (ZUMZ) 4pm, $0.13
- SAIC (SAI) 4:02pm, $0.33
- National Bank of Canada (NA CN) 4:15pm, C$1.90
- Omnivision (OVTI) 4:18pm, $0.24
- Splunk (SPLK) 4:35pm, $(0.03)
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Dust Bowl Kansas Farmers Set to Plant Winter Wheat: Commodities
- Africa Gas Rush Imperils $100 Billion in Australian LNG: Energy
- U.S. Gasoline a Bargain as Motorists Pay 63% Less Than Norway
- Oil Declines for a Second Day as Stockpiles Rise, Storm Weakens
- Copper Rises on Reduced Concern About Euro-Region Debt Crisis
- Wheat Drops as Rally May Prompt Farmer Sales; Soybeans Decline
- Gold Set to Advance on Speculation Bernanke to Hint at Stimulus
- Cocoa Rises as West Africa May Have Little to Sell; Coffee Falls
- Weakening Tropical Storm Isaac Eases U.S. Gulf Energy Risk
- France’s Wine Production Will Be ‘Extraordinarily Low’ in 2012
- China’s Iron Ore Output Dropped 10% in August as Prices Slid
- India Set to Get Above-Average Monsoon Rains in Next Two Weeks
- Record Gas Trade Shows Italy Craves Hub by 2015: Energy Markets
- China Copper Demand Seen Growing at Slowest Pace in 15 Years
- Grain-Barge Logjam From Isaac Rains Compounding Drought Slowdown
- Wheat Imports by Thailand May Double as Local Rice Prices Surge
- Copper Set to Decline on Ichimoku Cloud Top: Technical Analysis
CURRENCIES
USD – manic media back-pedaling, hard, on the Bernanke bailout drugs tomorrow; Washington Post article may have stole little Hilsenrath’s thunder, suggesting what Gold prices have all wk, no drugs for u. With the USD/Gold immediate-term TRADE inverse correlation -0.91 right now, this matters, big time. Paul Ryan is USD bullish, on the margin.
EUROPEAN MARKETS
RUSSIA – big economy, big beta – watching this one closely as the USD makes higher-lows and Oil/Gold lower-highs; Russian Stocks (RTSI) have led European losers this wk and now the RTSI just moved back into crash mode (-20% from YTD top); beta is not alpha.
ASIAN MARKETS
JAPAN – another lower-high for Japanese stocks on another fundamental growth miss (Japanese Retail Sales -0.8% y/y now that subsidies burned off); Nikkei is down -12.4% since #GrowthSlowing began, globally, in March; ugly session in Asian Equities taking them to flat for AUG.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team
