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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 30, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 18 points or -0.67% downside to 1401 and 0.60% upside to 1419. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


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EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/29 NYSE 526
    • Increase versus the prior day’s trading of 386
  • VOLUME: on 08/29 NYSE 509.30
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -1.39%
  • VIX:  as of 08/29 was at 17.06
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 3.46%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -27.09%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/29 closed at 1.69
    • Up from the day prior at 1.49

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 32.55
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.64%
    • Decrease from prior day’s trading of 1.65%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.38
    • Unchanged from prior day’s trading

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 8:30am: Personal Income, July, est. 0.3% (prior 0.5%)
  • 8:30am: Personal Spending, July, est. 0.5% (prior 0.0%)
  • 8:30am: PCE Deflator M/m, July, est. 0.1% (prior 0.1%)
  • 8:30am: PCE Core M/m, July, est. 0.1% (prior 0.2%)
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Aug. 24, est. 370k (prior 372k)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Aug. 26 (prior -47.4)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas change
  • 11am: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity, Aug. est. 3 (prior 5)
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $1.5b-$2b notes 2/15/2036-8/15/2042
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $29b 7-yr. notes
  • TBA: ICSC Chain Store Sales Y/y, Aug. (prior 1.9%)

GOVERNMENT:

    • Romney accepts Republican nomination as candidate for presidency
    • House, Senate not in session
    • FERC meets on coordination between natural gas, electricity markets in Mid-Atlantic Region, 9am
    • SEC holds closed meeting on enforcement matters, 2pm
    • California holds trial auction of carbon allowances, 1pm

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Isaac’s threat to offshore energy production eases
  • China’s Wen says Spain, Italy and Greece must step up overhaul
  • Barclays names Antony Jenkins as CEO to replace Diamond
  • Euro-area economic confidence falls more than forecast
  • CIBC 3Q earnings beat est.; boosts dividend to C$0.94
  • Caterpillar says China growth may recover on stimulus
  • Japan Air seeks $8.4b in biggest IPO since Facebook
  • WPP cuts sales growth forecast as clients reduce spending
  • German unemployment rises for 5th month in August
  • Nokia Siemens said to be close to selling business-support unit
  • Mando may buy former affiliate Halla Climate from Visteon
  • Pandora jumps in extending trading after break-even 2Q earns
  • Samsung unveils pen-equipped Galaxy phone to keep lead on Apple
  • Comcast said near U.S. approval to encrypt cable signals
  • Hewlett-Packard plans first Windows 8 touch-screen laptops
  • August same-store sales may gain 1.8% on back-to-school

EARNINGS:

    • Royal Bank of Canada (RY CN) 6am, C$1.18
    • China Sunergy (CSUN) 6am, $(1.41)
    • Toronto-Dominion (TD CN) 6:30am, C$1.83
    • Ciena (CIEN US) 7am, $(0.02)
    • Esterline Technologies (ESL) 4pm, $1.11
    • Cascade (CASC) 4pm, $1.29
    • Zumiez (ZUMZ) 4pm, $0.13
    • SAIC (SAI) 4:02pm, $0.33
    • National Bank of Canada (NA CN) 4:15pm, C$1.90
    • Omnivision (OVTI) 4:18pm, $0.24
    • Splunk (SPLK) 4:35pm, $(0.03)

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Dust Bowl Kansas Farmers Set to Plant Winter Wheat: Commodities
  • Africa Gas Rush Imperils $100 Billion in Australian LNG: Energy
  • U.S. Gasoline a Bargain as Motorists Pay 63% Less Than Norway
  • Oil Declines for a Second Day as Stockpiles Rise, Storm Weakens
  • Copper Rises on Reduced Concern About Euro-Region Debt Crisis
  • Wheat Drops as Rally May Prompt Farmer Sales; Soybeans Decline
  • Gold Set to Advance on Speculation Bernanke to Hint at Stimulus
  • Cocoa Rises as West Africa May Have Little to Sell; Coffee Falls
  • Weakening Tropical Storm Isaac Eases U.S. Gulf Energy Risk
  • France’s Wine Production Will Be ‘Extraordinarily Low’ in 2012
  • China’s Iron Ore Output Dropped 10% in August as Prices Slid
  • India Set to Get Above-Average Monsoon Rains in Next Two Weeks
  • Record Gas Trade Shows Italy Craves Hub by 2015: Energy Markets
  • China Copper Demand Seen Growing at Slowest Pace in 15 Years
  • Grain-Barge Logjam From Isaac Rains Compounding Drought Slowdown
  • Wheat Imports by Thailand May Double as Local Rice Prices Surge
  • Copper Set to Decline on Ichimoku Cloud Top: Technical Analysis

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CURRENCIES


USD – manic media back-pedaling, hard, on the Bernanke bailout drugs tomorrow; Washington Post article may have stole little Hilsenrath’s thunder, suggesting what Gold prices have all wk, no drugs for u. With the USD/Gold immediate-term TRADE inverse correlation -0.91 right now, this matters, big time. Paul Ryan is USD bullish, on the margin.

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EUROPEAN MARKETS


RUSSIA – big economy, big beta – watching this one closely as the USD makes higher-lows and Oil/Gold lower-highs; Russian Stocks (RTSI) have led European losers this wk and now the RTSI just moved back into crash mode (-20% from YTD top); beta is not alpha.

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ASIAN MARKETS


JAPAN – another lower-high for Japanese stocks on another fundamental growth miss (Japanese Retail Sales -0.8% y/y now that subsidies burned off); Nikkei is down -12.4% since #GrowthSlowing began, globally, in March; ugly session in Asian Equities taking them to flat for AUG.

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team