Keith bought LVS in the virtual portfolio at $42.05.
LVS TRADE range: $41.99-44.47. TREND support: $39.69
LVS is way down off of its $60+ high reached in April of this year owing to a halt in VIP growth in Macau, a rough start from Sands Cotai Central (SCC), and slowing growth in Singapore. With the stock down 30%, we believe concerns have been adequately discounted in the stock. However, there are signs that VIP is picking back up in Macau and the SCC performance has improved. Singapore expectations have moderated to only slight EBITDA growth for 2013 which might actually be too low.
The stock trades at 11x 2013 EV/EBITDA, close to a historical low. Meanwhile, there are a number of positive upcoming catalysts. The opening of 2,500 Sheraton rooms at SCC should provide a big boost. Sheraton is probaby the top hotel brand in China and combined with the associated marketing and potential infusion of junket liquidity, should provide more market share juice for LVS as well as grow the market. Additionally, with its significant free cash flow - enough to easily fund another Cotai project - and low overall leverage, we think LVS could announce a stock buyback. For the market, look for continued sequential improvement in YoY growth off of the July low.