“Bear banger is a slang or colloquial term sometimes used to describe exploding projectile wildlife deterrents.”
Bear spray or bear banger? When you go for a run down by the McCullough Lake House in Northwestern Ontario, what do you use? Inquiring Risk Manager minds want to know.
After running up to a bear during our family vacation last week, my wife Laura asked the original Thunder Bay Bear (my Dad) for some reinforcements. Instead of the go-to bear mace that most locals use, he opted to buy her something that makes noise.
The twist on the noisemaking part is that Bear Bangers sound more like a shotgun than a firecracker. I wouldn’t put a loaded one in your running shorts.
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
Running from your US or European Equity shorts at last week’s short covering highs was not a good risk management idea. Neither was selling your Fixed Income exposures at last week’s lows. Bear Banging works, but your timing matters.
Last week’s intra-week high for the SP500 was 1426. The intra-week low for 10-year US Treasury Bonds was close to 1.90%. However, those weren’t closing highs and lows. And it’s closing prices that matter most in our globally interconnected macro model.
From those no-volume intraday levels to the other side of the risk management trade:
- SP500 dropped a full -2% to 1398 intraday on Friday morning
- 10yr US Treasury Yields dropped just over -10% to close the week at 1.69%
So, I covered all but 4 shorts in the Hedgeye Portfolio at 1398 and sold almost 50% of our Fixed Income Exposure in the Hedgeye Asset Allocation Model week-over-week.
For those of you who are new to what we do, the Hedgeye Portfolio and the Hedgeye Asset Allocation Model are 2 mutually exclusive risk management products.
The Hedgeye Portfolio is simply a real-time idea list of risk managed long/short ideas that focuses on Rule #1 (don’t lose money), whereas the Asset Allocation Model attempts to be more dynamic than the Old Wall’s 60/40 stocks/bonds thing.
As time and prices change, we do.
When confronted with a live bull or bear, sometimes you have to move fast; sometimes you don’t have to move at all. If you’ve survived the last 5 years of this whipsaw, you get that the only perma you need to be is permanently flexible.
To be clear, I wouldn’t dare set foot in the Shuniah dump pit with a baby black bear (and no mama bear in sight) inasmuch as I’d short-and-hold stocks into a central planning event at Jackson Hole…
Being bearish on bonds at last week’s bottom was as bad a decision as buying last week’s 1426 top in US stocks. Being bearish on bonds means you believe growth isn’t slowing. Being bullish on stocks, at any price, just means you don’t sell on green.
Being bullish on commodities up here is something that I am not. While Bernanke claims “price stability and full employment”, what’s really happening here is that people are front-running him, getting all lathered up in what slows real (inflation adjusted) consumption growth (rising commodity prices).
Got causality? Last week’s CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission) data revealed an all-time high in outstanding futures and options contracts:
- Week-over-week gain in total contracts of +10% to 1.32 million (eclipsing the Feb/Mar 2012 highs)
- Gold contracts were up a stunning +35% wk-over-wk to 110,623
- Oil contracts were up another +18% wk-over-wk to 179,526
Fed inspired (US Dollar Debauchery) commodity inflation is not growth. It slows growth. And when this entire centrally planned game of Bailout Begging ends, the 3rd of the Greenspan/Bernanke asset bubbles (commodities) will be in for one heck of a Bear Banger.
Our immediate-term risk ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar, EUR/USD, 10yr UST Yields, and the SP500 are now $1, $112.31-115.87, $81.16-82.11, $1.23-1.25, 1.65-1.76%, and 1, respectively.
Best of luck out there this week,
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
GALAXY 2Q CONFERENCE CALL NOTES
"We are confident that GEG will continue to deliver results. The accelerated construction of Galaxy Macau Phase 2 was announced in April 2012. Based on our 'World Class, Asian Heart' philosophy, we believe it will serve as a major catalyst for growth for GEG and Macau, attracting customers from across the region and the world."
- Dr. Lui Che-woo, Chairman of GEG
- Galaxy Macau 2Q 2012 results includes full quarter, compared to 47 days in 2Q 2011
- $100MM positive EBITDA impact from high VIP hold of 3.4% at Galaxy Macau
- $100MM positive EBITDA impact from high VIP hold of 3.1% at StarWorld
- Will not issue equity for Phase II GM--expected to be the next major project in Macau
- Recent uptick in Galaxy's customer activity in August: increased foot traffic and higher demand for hotel rooms
- Believes VIP market will pick up
- Mass segment will continue to grow at 'high 20s, low 30s'
- No dividend plans right now
- Other operating expenses up significantly--no comment
- Residual capex at Phase I of Galaxy Macau is $2BN to be spent over the next 18-months to 2 years
- Capex for Phase II of GM will be mainly spent in 2014 and 2016
- Will look at other opportunities worldwide but right now concerned on completing Phase I of GM and efficient operation of StarWorld
- % of casino customers at hotel: Galaxy Macau has one of the higher casino mixes in Macau
- They are looking at new amenities at Galaxy Macau for 2H 2012 but did not disclose any details
HIGHLIGHTS FROM RELEASE
- Phase 2 Galaxy Macau (mid-2015)
- Q2 Group adjusted EBITDA: HK$2.6BN
- StarWorld Q2 adjusted EBITDA: HK$906MM
- Galaxy World Q2 adjusted EBITDA: HK$1.6BN
- Cash at end of 2Q: HK$11BN (HK$1.9 BN restricted cash), up from HK$7BN at end of 2011
- 2Q Debt: HK$11.090BN
- Gearing ratio: 7%
- 2Q Galaxy Macau
- VIP turnover: HK$186.4BN; VIP win: HK$6.3BN; VIP hold: 3.4%
- Mass drop: HK$6.0BN; Mass win: HK$1.7BN; Mass hold: 28.4%
- Slot handle: HK$4.4BN; Slot win: HK$271MM; Slot hold: 6.2%
- 2Q StarWorld
- VIP turnover: HK$163BN; VIP win: HK$5.1BN; VIP hold: 3.1%
- Mass drop: HK$2.37BN; Mass win: HK$0.55BN; Mass hold: 22.5%
- Slot handle: HK$0.84BN; Slot win: HK$60MM; Slot hold: 7.2%
- City Clubs 1H EBITDA: $82MM
- Construction Materials 1H EBITDA: $228MM
The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.
LONG SIGNALS 80.47%
SHORT SIGNALS 78.68%
Takeaway: Deere $DE is solid, but needs to drop in price as equipment manufacturers remain cautious moving into the rest of 2012.
We like Deere & Company (DE) as a franchise but it’s exposed to export markets, which has made other equipment manufacturers cautious in recent weeks as they move into the back half of 2012. While equipment sales have remained elevated in recent years, there could soon be a shift in the market that leads to a decline in purchases. Trading around $77, we think the stock is too expensive at the moment to own. $20-30 lower is what we would consider our “sweet spot.”
A note about the relationship between crop exports and the relationship they share with Deere follows, courtesy of Industrials Sector Head Jay Van Sciver:
• Exports & Dollar: Over the long-term, crop exports have a significant relationship to DE’s relative performance. The shares are also generally negatively correlated with the dollar, which has generally been strengthening in recent months. DE is increasingly less dependent on the US market, which may reduce these relationships over time.
Takeaway: We like $WEN for a the TRADE (range = $4.17-$4.66) duration, TREND & TAIL still broken
Idea Alert: Keith bought WEN in the virtual portfolio this morning.
I believe that Wendy’s is a company heading in the right direction but it’s going to take years to fix. In the short run the stock will make a better “trading stock” than a long term investment. For longer-term investors we would look elsewhere for exposure to the QSR category at this point in time.
Currently, we are seeing an uptick in same-store sales since the end of the second quarter. Currently consensus estimate have WEN posting system-wide same-store sales of 2.5% (company SSS at 2.5% and franchised at 2.6%). We believe that the current trends are several hundred basis points above those numbers.
For a trade the stock could head back to $5.
Longer-term., reimaging remains a dark cloud hanging over the Wendy’s story and we expect the stock to remain range-bound until investors gain more visibility as to the timeline and the cost associated with this core component of the brand revitalization effort. There will be a time to get behind this stock but, for the foreseeable future, we will stay on the sidelines until we gain clarity on the company’s timeline and future cash flow generation.
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