IDEA ALERT: LONG WEN

Takeaway: We like $WEN for a the TRADE (range = $4.17-$4.66) duration, TREND & TAIL still broken

Idea Alert:  Keith bought WEN in the virtual portfolio this morning.

 

I believe that Wendy’s is a company heading in the right direction but it’s going to take years to fix.  In the short run the stock will make a better “trading stock” than a long term investment.  For longer-term investors we would look elsewhere for exposure to the QSR category at this point in time. 

 

Currently, we are seeing an uptick in same-store sales since the end of the second quarter.  Currently consensus estimate have WEN posting system-wide same-store sales of 2.5% (company SSS at 2.5% and franchised at 2.6%).  We believe that the current trends are several hundred basis points above those numbers. 

 

For a trade the stock could head back to $5. 

 

Longer-term., reimaging remains a dark cloud hanging over the Wendy’s story and we expect the stock to remain range-bound until investors gain more visibility as to the timeline and the cost associated with this core component of the brand revitalization effort.  There will be a time to get behind this stock but, for the foreseeable future, we will stay on the sidelines until we gain clarity on the company’s timeline and future cash flow generation.

 

IDEA ALERT: LONG WEN - wensss


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