• It's Here!

    Etf Pro

    Get the big financial market moves right, bullish or bearish with Hedgeye’s ETF Pro.

  • It's Here


    Identify global risks and opportunities with essential macro intel using Hedgeye’s Market Edges.

Takeaway: Democrats and the media would have you think Ryan's cuts to Medicare have seniors scared. The truth is, they're not.

The consensus among mainstream media and Democrats is that Paul Ryan’s plans for Medicare and Medicaid are detrimental to senior citizens as we cut costs and switch to a “voucher” based system. But in reality, the truth is that seniors aren’t scared of Ryan and his Path To Prosperity.

A new Washington Post-ABC poll of seniors shows that 41% of Americans have a favorable view of Ryan while 37% rate him unfavorably. Seniors have a 50% favorable view of Ryan and 35% unfavorable view. A third of seniors say they have a strongly favorable view of the Wisconsin congressman, while one-quarter have a strongly unfavorable view. These numbers aren’t bad at all for a man Democrats are painting as Death incarnate.

Still, the likelihood of President Obama being reelected remains high despite the massive fundraising numbers being put up by Romney’s camp. Obama has more available “total cash” than Romney (the spread is narrowing quickly) but the monthly fundraising trends favor Romney.

Another factor that’s trending is voter engagement. Current numbers and polls suggest that the GOP voter base is highly energized and significantly more engaged than Democrats. What this means is that come election day, when it’s time to get out and actually vote, Republicans will have a stronger turnout. Recent voter restriction measures passed and/or pending across eastern and mid-western states, as highlighted by the ACLU, presents another fringe dynamic that may impact both engagement and turnout.

Grandma Isn’t Scared Of Paul Ryan - ryanpoll1

Lastly, there are external circumstances that could damage Republican numbers. The first is Tropical Storm Isaac, which is set to become a hurricane that is forecasted to slam into Florida next week right as the Republican National Convention begins in Tampa. The other problem at hand is Representative William Todd Akin (R-MO), whose recent inappropriate comments on birth control have damaged the Republican party as a whole. It will likely take a resignation on his part to repair the damage he has done and it has been said Paul Ryan has had a long conversation with Akin about doing just that.

Grandma Isn’t Scared Of Paul Ryan - ryanpoll2

The election is fast approaching and October’s numbers should paint a clear, concise picture of who’s going to win this battle. For now, the race remains very close with Obama slightly inching out Romney.