TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 20, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 13 points or -0.86% downside to 1406 and 0.06% upside to 1419.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/17 NYSE 706
- Decrease versus the prior day’s trading of 1327
- VOLUME: on 08/17 NYSE 675.67
- Increase versus prior day’s trading of 13.41%
- VIX: as of 08/17 was at 13.45
- Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -5.88%
- Year-to-date decrease of -42.52%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/17 closed at 1.77
- Up from the day prior at 1.07
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 35
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.84%
- Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.81%
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.55
- Up from prior day’s trading of 1.52
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)
- 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, July (prior -0.15)
- 11am: Fed to purchase $4.25b-5b notes 8/31/2018-8/15/2020
- 11:30am: U.S. Treasury to sell $32b 3-mo., $28b 6-mo. bills
- 4pm: Weekly crop report
GOVERNMENT:
- House, Senate not in session
- U.S. presidential election fundraising deadline
- FERC meets on natural gas, electricity market coordination in U.S. Northeast, 9am
- AICPA holds 2012 National Governmental Accounting & Auditing Update Conference
- ITC judge hears testimony in LG’s patent case against Osram over light-emitting diodes, 9am
- ITC announces whether it will review judge’s findings that VirnetX couldn’t file a complaint against Apple because it lacked ownership control of a patent, 5pm
- Samsung Electronics asks U.S. appeals court to let it continue selling Galaxy Nexus smartphone while waiting outcome of Apple patent-infringement trial next year, 2pm
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Aetna said to have agreed to buy Coventry for $5.7b: WSJ
- Best Buy said founder Richard Schulze declined board offer to conduct due diligence; WSJ, NYT report BBY has picked Carlson CEO Hubert Joly as new CEO
- Prudential Financial said to emerge as lead bidder for Hartford’s indiv. life insurance unit, which may fetch ~$1b
- Home sales, durable-goods orders probably climbed in July
- American Airlines flight attendants’ voted yesterday to approve new contract with cost cuts
- Apple, Samsung made no progress toward narrowing dispute over smartphone, computer tablet patents, in report to court Aug. 18, increasing chances jury will decide matter starting Aug. 21
- Berkshire Hathaway unit agreed to acquire U.S. unit of Clal Insurance Enterprise Holdings for $221m
- Moody’s, S&P lost bid for dismissal of fraud claims in suit by investors
- Google’s Motorola Mobility unit said Aug. 17 filed new patent-infringement case against Apple at ITC
- EU leaders plan talks to bolster Greece, sovereign bonds
- China new-home prices rise in more cities after rate cuts
- CME said planning Europe exchange to compete w/ Eurex, Liffe
- Facebook failed to persude judge to approve $20m settlement on lawsuit over “sponsored stories”
- Netflix CEO plans to take on BSkyB’s dominance in streaming films by outbidding Sky for Hollywood studio movie rights: Sunday Telegraph
- BOK Financial said it bought Milestone; terms undisclosed
- GM recalling ~249,260 vehicles over concern fluid may enter driver’s door; Fisker Automotive plans to recall all its $103k Karma sedans to fix flawed cooling fan linked to Calif. fire
- “The Expendables 2,” distributed by Lions Gate, led U.S., Canadian box offices with sales of $28.8m
- U.S. sector previews: Energy, Finance, Industrials, Tech, Rates, Real Estate, Media/Entertainment, Health, Consumer, Transports
EARNINGS:
- Lowe’s Cos (LOW) 6am, $0.70
- Corinthian Colleges (COCO), 7:45am, $0.11
- Urban Outfitters (URBN) 4pm, $0.33
- Nordson (NDSN) 4:30pm, $0.99
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Speculators Hold Wagers at 11-Month High Amid Rally: Commodities
- Merkel’s Green Shift Forces Germany to Burn More Coal: Energy
- Oil Trades Near Three-Month High as Euro Leaders Ready for Talks
- Rubber Set to Drop 25% on Bearish Momentum: Technical Analysis
- Crop Outlook Seen Eroding as July Heat Compounded Drought Damage
- U.K. Natural Gas Surges as Demand Increases on Belgian Exports
- Copper Declines on Speculation China Will Hold Off From Easing
- Corn Gains as U.S. Rain Too Late to Boost Drought-Damaged Yields
- Rubber Drops for First Day in Four as Chinese Demand May Slow
- Gold Seen Rising on Speculation a Weaker Dollar Will Spur Demand
- Hedge Funds Slash Gas Bets as Bullish Party Ends: Energy Markets
- Lonmin Says 30% of Workers Return After Ultimatum Issued
- CME Planning Europe Exchange to Compete With Eurex, Liffe
- Swine Fever’s Spread Threatens EU, According to Russian Watchdog
- Speculators Hold Wagers at 11-Month High
- Rubber Seen Dropping as Chinese Inventories Set to Equal Record
- Sugar Rebounds on Speculation Prices Fell Too Far; Cocoa Rises
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team