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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 20, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 13 points or -0.86% downside to 1406 and 0.06% upside to 1419. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

EQUITY SENTIMENT: 

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/17 NYSE 706
    • Decrease versus the prior day’s trading of 1327
  • VOLUME: on 08/17 NYSE 675.67
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 13.41%
  • VIX:  as of 08/17 was at 13.45
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -5.88%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -42.52%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/17 closed at 1.77
    • Up from the day prior at 1.07 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 35
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.84%
    • Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.81%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.55
    • Up from prior day’s trading of 1.52 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, July (prior -0.15)
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $4.25b-5b notes 8/31/2018-8/15/2020
  • 11:30am: U.S. Treasury to sell $32b 3-mo., $28b 6-mo. bills
  • 4pm: Weekly crop report 

GOVERNMENT:

    • House, Senate not in session
    • U.S. presidential election fundraising deadline
    • FERC meets on natural gas, electricity market coordination in U.S. Northeast, 9am
    • AICPA holds 2012 National Governmental Accounting & Auditing Update Conference
    • ITC judge hears testimony in LG’s patent case against Osram over light-emitting diodes, 9am
    • ITC announces whether it will review judge’s findings that VirnetX couldn’t file a complaint against Apple because it lacked ownership control of a patent, 5pm
    • Samsung Electronics asks U.S. appeals court to let it continue selling Galaxy Nexus smartphone while waiting outcome of Apple patent-infringement trial next year, 2pm

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • Aetna said to have agreed to buy Coventry for $5.7b: WSJ
  • Best Buy said founder Richard Schulze declined board offer to conduct due diligence; WSJ, NYT report BBY has picked Carlson CEO Hubert Joly as new CEO
  • Prudential Financial said to emerge as lead bidder for Hartford’s indiv. life insurance unit, which may fetch ~$1b
  • Home sales, durable-goods orders probably climbed in July
  • American Airlines flight attendants’ voted yesterday to approve new contract with cost cuts
  • Apple, Samsung made no progress toward narrowing dispute over smartphone, computer tablet patents, in report to court Aug. 18, increasing chances jury will decide matter starting Aug. 21
  • Berkshire Hathaway unit agreed to acquire U.S. unit of Clal Insurance Enterprise Holdings for $221m
  • Moody’s, S&P lost bid for dismissal of fraud claims in suit by investors
  • Google’s Motorola Mobility unit said Aug. 17 filed new patent-infringement case against Apple at ITC
  • EU leaders plan talks to bolster Greece, sovereign bonds
  • China new-home prices rise in more cities after rate cuts
  • CME said planning Europe exchange to compete w/ Eurex, Liffe
  • Facebook failed to persude judge to approve $20m settlement on lawsuit over “sponsored stories”
  • Netflix CEO plans to take on BSkyB’s dominance in streaming films by outbidding Sky for Hollywood studio movie rights: Sunday Telegraph
  • BOK Financial said it bought Milestone; terms undisclosed
  • GM recalling ~249,260 vehicles over concern fluid may enter driver’s door; Fisker Automotive plans to recall all its $103k Karma sedans to fix flawed cooling fan linked to Calif. fire
  • “The Expendables 2,” distributed by Lions Gate, led U.S., Canadian box offices with sales of $28.8m
  • U.S. sector previews: Energy, Finance, Industrials, Tech, Rates, Real Estate, Media/Entertainment, Health, Consumer, Transports

EARNINGS:

    • Lowe’s Cos (LOW) 6am, $0.70
    • Corinthian Colleges (COCO), 7:45am, $0.11
    • Urban Outfitters (URBN) 4pm, $0.33
    • Nordson (NDSN) 4:30pm, $0.99

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Speculators Hold Wagers at 11-Month High Amid Rally: Commodities
  • Merkel’s Green Shift Forces Germany to Burn More Coal: Energy
  • Oil Trades Near Three-Month High as Euro Leaders Ready for Talks
  • Rubber Set to Drop 25% on Bearish Momentum: Technical Analysis
  • Crop Outlook Seen Eroding as July Heat Compounded Drought Damage
  • U.K. Natural Gas Surges as Demand Increases on Belgian Exports
  • Copper Declines on Speculation China Will Hold Off From Easing
  • Corn Gains as U.S. Rain Too Late to Boost Drought-Damaged Yields
  • Rubber Drops for First Day in Four as Chinese Demand May Slow
  • Gold Seen Rising on Speculation a Weaker Dollar Will Spur Demand
  • Hedge Funds Slash Gas Bets as Bullish Party Ends: Energy Markets
  • Lonmin Says 30% of Workers Return After Ultimatum Issued
  • CME Planning Europe Exchange to Compete With Eurex, Liffe
  • Swine Fever’s Spread Threatens EU, According to Russian Watchdog
  • Speculators Hold Wagers at 11-Month High
  • Rubber Seen Dropping as Chinese Inventories Set to Equal Record
  • Sugar Rebounds on Speculation Prices Fell Too Far; Cocoa Rises

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

ASIAN MARKETS

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team