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THE M3: LA SCALA STAMP DUTY REFUND; 2Q CONSTRUCTION AND REAL ESTATE TRANSACTION DATA

The Macau Metro Monitor, August 16, 2012

 

 

GOVERNMENT ALLOWS SPECIAL STAMP DUTY REFUND ON LA SCALA FLATS Macau News

The Financial Services Bureau (DSF) is allowing buyers of La Scala apartments to get back their special stamp duty (SSD) after announcing that it would annul the land-lease agreement with the residential project’s developer.

 

PRIVATE SECTOR CONSTRUCTION AND REAL ESTATE TRANSACTIONS FOR THE 2ND QUARTER 2012 DSEC

A total of 7,845 building units exchanged hands at a price of  MOP31.05 billion in 2Q12 as per Stamp Duty record, up by 1.2x and 1.7x,  respectively QoQ. Of those units, 5,555 were residential units selling for MOP23.39 billion, up by 1.4x and 1.8x, respectively. In 1H12, there were 11,437 building units traded hands at MOP42.76 billion, down by 43.8% and 24.4% respectively YoY. 

 

The average transaction price of all residential units amounted to MOP55,427 per square metre of usable area, up by 21.9% QoQ. The average price of those in the Macao Peninsula (MOP47,461) and Taipa (MOP66,804) increased by 15.0% and 38.9%, respectively QoQ, while the average price of those in Coloane (MOP78,197) decreased by 6.0%.

 

In 2Q, 3,531 cases of real estate sale and purchase contracts were made, up by 77.4% QoQ, and the number of units rose by 34.2% to 4,358. In addition, there were 2,631 cases of residential mortgage contracts signed, an increase of 89.6% QoQ.


Market Slavery

This note was originally published at 8am on August 02, 2012 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“Nature has made no man a slave.”

-Alcidamas

 

What would the #OldWall’s manic media mouthpieces do without this week’s central planning events? What would we all do without the drugs that promise to suspend economic gravity? What would we wake up to this morning if markets were actually free?

 

Alcidamas was a popular Greek philosopher in 4th century BC who Victor Davis Hanson cites at the end of Chapter 8 in “The Soul of Battle.” That quote precedes an excellent chapter in human history titled “And All of Greece Became Independent and Free.”

 

It’s too bad that when we use the word free in today’s marketplace, the first thing that comes to mind is getting a sticker.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

US Stocks closed down for the 7th day in the last 9 yesterday, but no worries, we have a central plan on tap at 745AM EST that is going to whip this sucker right back up to a level where perma-bull marketers can say “but the market is up year-to-date.”

 

Everything in the land of nodding (other than where the entire street gets paid - fund flows, volumes, and performance), is just dandy right now. Buy, hold, and pray.

 

I have absolutely no idea what this conflicted and compromised central planner is going to tell us today. All I can assure you is that there’s at least -3.5% downside in the EuroStoxx50 and a stiff move to $1.20 in the EUR/USD if he doesn’t deliver the drugs.

 

Bernanke didn’t crack open the cocaine lines yesterday, and for that, I give him a golf clap. What his pseudo sober decision did to the rest of Global Macro markets was proactively predictable:

  1. US Dollar went straight back up (+0.7% on the day, closing above an important TRADE line of $82.95 support)
  2. Gold went straight back down (down a full 1% where we covered our short position at $1603 support)
  3. US Stocks went down, then up, then back down as underperforming hedgies got whipped around, again

What happens next?

 

I have no idea. Once I get Draghi’s Italian Job, I’ll let you know. Until then I can only wait and watch for “whatever” as I score ranges, probabilities, and risk managed scenarios – like I do every morning.

 

On that front, here’s a morning dump for you in US markets:

  1. US Dollar Index remains in a Bullish Formation (bullish on all 3 of our risk management durations, TRADE/TREND/TAIL)
  2. US Treasury Yields (10yr) remain in a Bearish Formation (bearish on all 3 of our risk management durations)
  3. US Treasury Yield Spread (10s minus 2s) = +129bps wide and continues to compress; very bearish economic signal
  4. SP500 immediate-term risk range of 1363-1386, with its intermediate-term TREND line right in the middle of that (1376)
  5. US Equity Volatility (VIX) remains in a Bullish Formation with intermediate-term TREND support = $17.62
  6. US Equity Volume studies are as nasty as I have ever measured them in my career (+16% on yesterday’s down move)
  7. Russell2000 negatively diverging from SP500, already bearish TRADE and TREND, closing down -1.7% yesterday
  8. S&P Sector Studies continue to flag on 3 Sectors (out of the 9 majors) as buys (Healthcare, Consumer Staples, Utilities)
  9. S&P Sectors recently snapping both TRADE and TREND lines = Consumer Discretionary, Transports, and Basic Materials
  10. Energy (which is asset price inflation, not growth) continues to be the best performer on a 1-month duration

On that last point, Keynesian central planners get their tighty whities in a bunch. I think that’s primarily because it implies that they themselves are perpetuating #GrowthSlowing by infusing a market wedgie of expectations that jams commodity prices higher.

 

#tighty #whitie #wedgie – none of those words spell checked on my PC, weird.

 

What might also seem a bit odd to the beggars for more of what isn’t working is what’s going on in the rest of the world this morning:

  1. Chinese Stocks, after having 1 up day, went straight back down last night (Bearish Formation, down -14% since May)
  2. Japanese Equities remain no volume/no bid (Bearish Formation, Nikkei225 down -16% since March)
  3. South Korean Equities (KOSPI, great leading indicator) backed off TRADE resistance of 1881 again last night

Oh, right – the rest of the world, per the Fed and ECB, is really the West. Damn them people in the East who eat inflated food and consume derivatives of $106/barrel Brent Oil.

 

As we beg the Italian for more of what the British are chastising Chinese swimmers for using, let’s get a medal count:

  1. China = 30 medals
  2. USA = 29 medals
  3. Japan = 17 medals

Not sure what that means for Global Macro other than China is not Japan.

 

In the spirit of winning, let’s just play the game that’s in front of us out there today. At the end of the day, Market Slavery to the next central plan or not, we can fight this for a lot longer than our overlords can remain in office.

 

My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar, EUR/USD, Spain’s IBEX, and the SP500 are now $1590-1624, $105.29-107.84, $82.35-84.03, $1.20-1.23, 6403-6736, and 1363-1386, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Market Slavery - Chart of the Day

 

Market Slavery - Virtual Portfolio



Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

Follow The Lightning

“I follow the lightning, And draw near to the place that it strikes.”

-Navajo Chant

 

Now I know that a lot of our clients want to talk about what consensus versus contrarian thinking is, in this no-volume marketplace, but I’m thinking they’d have a tough time advising their kids to go hard core contrarian like the early 19th century Navajos did.

 

Admittedly, I am developing a Darwinian confirmation bias in my reading list this summer as I delve into more Native American history with a book I started reading this week titled Blood and Thunder – “The epic story of Kit Carson and the Conquest of the American West.”

 

Whether it was the ability of the Navajo and Comanche tribes to adapt and survive the late 18th and early 19th centuries, or it’s what you are staring at on your screen this performance chasing morning, our goals remain common in human nature; evolve or die.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

Buy stocks or bonds?

 

Rarely can I time that question as critically as I’ll timestamp it this morning. Yes, these are the thralls of August. But Mr Macro Market couldn’t care less about our summer vacations. Timing matters right here and now, big time.

 

Timing was especially important in answering this same basic asset allocation question in the middle of March 2012 (see Darius Dale’s Chart of the Day): 

  1. Stocks wouldn’t go down
  2. Bonds wouldn’t go up
  3. Volatility went away 

In fact, by the time the VIX hit 14.26 on March 26th (the Russell2000 topped for 2012 on the same day at 846, +5.2% higher than where it is today), there was a massive consensus (both buy and sell side)  that “growth was back” and “earnings are great.”

 

Fast forward to June… and US stocks were gasping for air in the middle of a double-digit drawdown (Russell2000 and SP500 down -13% and -10% from their late March highs) as US Treasuries put on a massive move to the upside (10yr yield dropped -42%, from 2.4% to 1.4%).

 

What drove the correct answer to the stocks vs bonds question?

 

Global #GrowthSlowing. Period.

 

What will get you to the correct answer for the next 1-3 months, from here?

 

Follow The Lightning.

 

The most abysmal volume and volatility readings I have ever recorded in my US Equity model aside, there are 2 basic realities that both bulls and bears have to deal with this morning: 

  1. US stocks are making both intermediate and long-term lower-highs
  2. US bonds are making both intermediate and long-term higher-lows 

In other words, if you believe Growth is going to improve from here, you buy stocks. If you’re more confident (like we and the data are) on #GrowthSlowing, you buy bonds.

 

Our predictive tracking algorithm (the one that called for #GrowthSlowing when few did in March), which is a multi-factor, multi-duration model, is telling us that this is a fairly straightforward call to make because:

 

A)     Oil prices are up +32% (Brent) from the June low (that slows growth)

B)      Corporate Revenue growth’s slope is as weak as it has been, globally, since Q308

C)      Chinese Growth continues to surprise on the downside

 

Chinese what? Yes, while I suppose you could say that China’s Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) print this morning of -9% year-over-year was better than India’s Export growth tanking to -15% year-over-year earlier this week, we highly suggest you take China’s word for it:

 

“In the second half, China’s foreign trade and export situation will be more grim, there will be more difficulties, harder tasks, and the pressure of achieving the full-year target will be bigger…” –China Ministry of Commerce (this morning)

 

Now, before you zap me with the bull counterpoint (for stocks) to this (rate cuts, stimuli, bailouts, etc.), just remember that doing more of the same will only keep food/energy prices higher (and growth slower) for longer. That’s bullish for bonds, longer term. And our long-term TAIL risk line for growth (bond yields) remains intact at 1.94% on the US Treasury 10yr.

 

My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar, EUR/USD, 10yr UST Yield, and the SP500 are now $1, $111.69-116.21, $82.34-82.97, $1.22-1.24, 1.56-1.82%, and 1, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Follow The Lightning - Chart of the Day

 

Follow The Lightning - Virtual Portfolio


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 16, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 19 points or -1.03% downside to 1391 and 0.32% upside to 1410. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT: 

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/15 NYSE 799
    • Increase versus the prior day’s trading of -41
  • VOLUME: on 08/15 NYSE 497.83
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -12.15%
  • VIX:  as of 08/15 was at 14.63
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -1.48%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -37.48%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/15 closed at 1.12
    • Down from the day prior at 1.52 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


10YR – talk about ripping; massive short-term rip in bond yields this week looks almost identical to the pace of gains in stocks vs bonds at the March highs; at 14-15 VIX, that was not the buy stocks signal; higher lows in bonds now as stocks make lower highs. 

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 35
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.81%
    • Decrease from prior day’s trading of 1.82%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.52
    • Down from prior day’s trading of 1.53 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 8:30am: Jobless Claims, Aug. 11, est. 365k (prior 361k)
  • 8:30am: Housing Starts, July, est. 756k (prior 760k)
  • 8:30am: Building Permits, July, est. 769k (prior 760k)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Aug. 12 (prior -41.9)
  • 10am: Philadelphia Fed., Aug., est. -5 (prior -12.9)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage
  • 10:30am: EIA Natural Gas
  • 8pm: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks on the Fed in Williston, N.D. 

GOVERNMENT:

    • House, Senate not in session
    • Paul Ryan attends campaign event in North Canton, Ohio. 9:55am

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • Lock-up on insider sales of Facebook expires
  • U.S. home construction probably held near 4-yr high
  • Verizon-cable agreement is said to win antitrust approval today
  • Apollo is said to seek up to $12b for flagship LBO fund
  • Spain said to speed EU bank bailout after collateral limits
  • U.K. retail sales unexpectedly rise as discounts boost fuel
  • Apple said to talk with cable industry about set-top TV devices
  • Dish is said to plan nationwide satellite broadband service
  • JPMorgan, Barclays said among banks to get N.Y. Libor subpoenas
  • Morgan Stanley unit fined over junior trader’s $1.3b bet
  • AMR’s American denied court approval to cancel pilot contract
  • Foreign direct investment in China fell to lowest level in 2 yrs in July
  • PepsiCo Gatorade Chief O’Hagan said to leave after sales revamp
  • Spotify, Pandora spur U.S. digital music sales past CD purchases
  • Pfizer’s experimental arthritis drug works in Ulcerative Colitis
  • Cisco 4Q adj. EPS, rev. top ests.; Applied Materials’ 4Q sales may miss est.

EARNINGS:

    • Soufun (SFUN) 5:45am, $0.41
    • Sears Holdings (SHLD) 6am, $(0.86)
    • Children’s Place (PLCE) 6:30am, $(0.66)
    • Buckle (BKE) 7am, $0.49
    • Cato (CATO) 7am, $0.57
    • Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) 7am, $1.17
    • Dollar Tree (DLTR) 7:30am, $0.47
    • Perrigo (PRGO) 8am, $1.27
    • GameStop (GME) 8:30am, $0.16
    • Ross Stores (ROST) 8:30am, $0.81
    • Gap (GPS) 4pm, $0.48
    • Aeropostale (ARO) 4:01pm, $0.01
    • Marvell Technology (MRVL) 4:02pm, $0.27
    • Brocade Communications Systems (BRCD) 4:05pm, $0.12
    • Avago (AVGO) 4:05pm, $0.66

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

OIL – ripping humanity a new one here w/ Brent Oil charging to $116/barrel; Oil is up +32% since June, but that’s not inflationary – take the government’s word for it while it continues to slow real (inflation adjusted) GDP growth.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – If you thought this week’s India Export reports (-15% y/y) was bad, take a peek at the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) print out of China at -9% y/y #awful; Chinese stocks down for 3rd day out of 4 on that this wk; media begs for stimuli.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team


HEDGEYE ENERGY: OIL: PARSING THE PRICE ACTION

Takeaway: The bull case for #oil is bailouts and bombs - not growth. $USO $OIL

Please find the attached note from our energy team today that outlines some of our key thoughts on the price of oil.  If you’d like to receive the insights of our energy team directly, email .

 

The price drivers of crude oil are difficult to impute because there are many, with some mattering more than others one day, and others the next.  That said, we offer the following series of charts for your consideration in risk management as it pertains to your oil exposure, whether it be via the commodity itself or oil-levered equities.

 

Conclusion: The Brent crude spot (the global benchmark) is +5% YTD and +29% higher from the 6/21/12 low of $88.99.  The fundamentals (read: supply and demand) warrant lower oil prices, but expectations for easier monetary policy and fears of supply disruptions (geopolitical risk) have lifted prices recently.  Note that the oil market has shrugged off actual data in favor of events that may or may not occur – the Fed has not gone to QE3, Europe has yet to implement a comprehensive solution to its debt crisis (if there is one), and there has been little aside from increased rhetoric out of Iran and Israel – yet oil continues to trade higher in expectation of some or all of those events.  Given, the risk-reward setup in crude is skewed to the downside.  If the Fed or ECB appeases the market – how much of that is already priced-in?  And if they don’t – does the market’s focus turn to the weak growth data?  On the geopolitical risk front, tensions in Israel, Iran, Syria, Egypt, etc are all serious tail risks; and the only thing that we can say for certain is that that's not going away anytime soon.  A war-inspired oil price spike would have a dire impact on the global economy given its already fragile state; not even oil-levered equities would perform well in that environment, as has been the case in past instances of Mid-East strife.

 

HEDGEYE ENERGY: OIL: PARSING THE PRICE ACTION  - 1

 

Price: Mixed

 

Brent crude is trading in a bullish formation on our quantitative model.  Long-term TAIL support for Brent is at $110.36/bbl.  It is +5% YTD and +29% higher than the most recent low of $88.99/bbl, made on 6/21/12.

 

HEDGEYE ENERGY: OIL: PARSING THE PRICE ACTION  - 2

 

Volume traded was strong in July, +46% Y/Y, confirming the rally.  But that euphoria has eroded quickly – the most recent volume studies are nasty at -34% Y/Y for the first 9 trading days of August.  That is the largest monthly Y/Y decline in Brent volume since the financial crisis.

 

HEDGEYE ENERGY: OIL: PARSING THE PRICE ACTION  - 3

 

Volatility and price tend to be inversely correlated.  We often speak to the relationship between the VIX index and the S&P500: since 2007 a VIX near 15 has been an excellent time to sell US equities.  Oil and oil volatility (OVIX) act similarly: the mid-20’s on the OVIX seems to indicate complacency (bullishness), and a good exit signal.  The OVIX currently sits at 29.90, down from early-June high of 42.

 

HEDGEYE ENERGY: OIL: PARSING THE PRICE ACTION  - 4

 

Demand (Global Growth): Bearish

 

The concurrent indicators of global growth are flashing negative.  From Indian exports down 15% Y/Y, to the Manheim used car value index putting in its worst reading in 42 months, we have not seen a confluence of global growth data this poor since 2007.  We offer two charts below that highlight this point: Brent vs. Chinese steel rebar and Brent vs. the Baltic Dry Index.  (Note: the Baltic Dry Index over a long duration is not a good representation of global demand given the glut of shipping capacity that weighs on the index relative to pre-crisis levels.  But changes on the margin are still telling, and the BDI has moved sharply lower since mid-July.)

 

HEDGEYE ENERGY: OIL: PARSING THE PRICE ACTION  - 5

 

HEDGEYE ENERGY: OIL: PARSING THE PRICE ACTION  - 6

 

 

Supply: Bearish

 

The oil market is well-supplied.  Real-time data on global oil production is not readily available, though the two most important producing regions – North America (as the marginal cost producer) and OPEC (as the largest producer by volume) – keep relatively current numbers.  On the former, US oil production was +11% Y/Y in May near 6.3MM bbls/d; and US imports from Canada were +19% Y/Y to 2.4MM bbls/d.  While North America is still a significant net importer of crude, shale and oil sands production has lifted production to the highest level in more than a decade.

 

HEDGEYE ENERGY: OIL: PARSING THE PRICE ACTION  - 7

 

HEDGEYE ENERGY: OIL: PARSING THE PRICE ACTION  - 8

 

OPEC production has been on a similar upward trajectory since the 2011 Arab Spring took Libya’s production from 1.6MM bbls/d to 0 in six months; Saudi Arabia stepped up to fill that gap, increasing production from 8.2MM bbls/d in late 2010 to 9.8 MMbbls/d as of July 2012.  But now that Libya is back producing 1.5MM bbls/d, the increased output from Saudi serves to fill the Iranian void.  Iran’s oil production has been in steady decline since the financial crisis, though output has fallen more rapidly in 2012 due to sanctions.  Output has slipped from 3.6MM bbls/d in Dec 2011 to 2.9MM bbls/d in July 2012.  Aside from Iran most OPEC nations have increased production Y/Y, including Kuwait, the UAE, and Venezuela.  In aggregate, production from the OPEC 12 (OPEC + Iraq) is just off its post-2007 high and +4% Y/Y.

 

HEDGEYE ENERGY: OIL: PARSING THE PRICE ACTION  - 9

 

Other supply data points:

  • The Buzzard oilfield, the largest in the UK North Sea will be down for several weeks of maintenance in September.  That will take ~200 Mbbl/d of Forties crude (sets the price of Brent) off the market.  With that outage, as well as planned maintenance at other North Sea fields (Norway’s Troll) and natural declines, supply from the North Sea could shrink by as much as 300 Mbbl/d in September – though the decline is planned and transitory.  The expectation of this output loss could have much to do with Brent’s rise in the last 2 months.  On the other hand, the return of the production (mid-October) should be an equal headwind.
  • Russia – the world’s top oil producer in 2011 – pumped 10.3MM bbls/d in 2011, the highest level since 1990.  Putin and Co. aim to increase production 1% in 2012 after a 1.2% rise in 2011, and indeed, the Energy Ministry said that production for 1H12 was +1.1% Y/Y.  But June production slipped slightly from May, and fears are that growth has hit a capacity wall. 
  • Syria and South Sudan are struggling with civil and political unrest, putting ~500 Mbbl/d at risk.

Policy: Mixed

 

We chart a scatter of the monthly mean price for the US Dollar Index versus the monthly mean Brent crude spot price below.  We assert that the strength or weakness of the world’s reserve currency, driven by US monetary policy, has a major impact on commodities priced in dollars, particular ones that are liquid and global, like crude oil.  In effect, oil prices have become a proxy for interest rates in the developed world.  Higher oil prices slow growth (as discretionary spending falls) forcing central banks to stop printing; those countries that actually have interest rates (emerging markets mostly) cut them – which many mistakenly consider bullish for risk assets in the immediate-term.  Then as oil prices drop, global growth eventually bounces, EM countries raise rates, and central planners are emboldened to print more.  (It is a perverse cycle, right?) 

 

HEDGEYE ENERGY: OIL: PARSING THE PRICE ACTION  - 10

 

But with Brent already back at $115/bbl, global growth slowing, and market expectations for another round of QE – something has to give.  We argue that we are in the point in the cycle detailed above where the Fed is stuck on hold.  The price of gold – which is bearish TREND and TAIL on our quantitative model – agrees, as does the USD Index, which is also bullish TREND and TAIL (+3.2% YTD):

 

HEDGEYE ENERGY: OIL: PARSING THE PRICE ACTION  - 11

 

 

Geopolitical Risk: Mixed

 

Looking at the divergence in the prices of Brent crude, copper, and gold can help shed some light on the key factors driving each.  We argue that, generally speaking, gold is a proxy for inflation expectations; copper is a proxy for inflation + growth expectations; and that oil is a proxy for inflation + growth + geopolitical risk expectations.  The chart below shows the price performance of each since Brent crude put in its YTD low on 6/21/12: Brent is +28.9%, gold is +2.3%, and copper is +0.5%.  Brent’s sharp divergence from gold and copper highlights the geopolitical risk premium currently baked into crude (and to a certain extent, energy equities); while copper underperforming gold is a growth slowing signal.

 

HEDGEYE ENERGY: OIL: PARSING THE PRICE ACTION  - 12

 

Mid-East strife has returned to the front pages recently, with anti-Iran rhetoric picking up from Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Ehub Barak.  “We are determined to prevent Iran from becoming nuclear (armed), and all the options are on the table. When we say it, we mean it,” Barak said on Israeli radio last week.  An Iranian official fired back: “[Israel] definitely doesn’t have what it takes to endure Iran’s might and will,” and he called the Israeli threats “a sign of weakness” by “brainless leaders.” 

 

The mainstream attention that the ever-present Israel/Iran conflict gets tends to ebb and flow; whether increased rhetoric will precede serious action, we just don’t know.  But consider this: at 4.05 the Israeli shekel is near its strongest versus the US dollar since 2009; the Tel-Aviv 25 Index is +3% over the last month and +0.6% YTD; and CDS on the 5Y government bond is at 153 bps (just off the YTD low of 140).  Curiously, the price of oil is the only one that suggests action is imminent in the Mid-East. 

 

 HEDGEYE ENERGY: OIL: PARSING THE PRICE ACTION  - 13

 

 

Sentiment: Bearish

 

From a long-term perspective, investors are bullish on crude oil (given the cyclical nature of crude prices, we consider overly bullish sentiment a contrarian indicator).  We argue that, “Over the long-term, oil prices are heading higher” is one of the most consensus views in global macro – we hear it all the time.  It’s an easy side to stand on after oil prices have gone up 15% per annum (nominal) since 2001.  To the point, non-commercial (hedge funds, etc) net length (longs minus shorts) in NYMEX crude is currently at +248k.  Between 1995 and 2000 the average net length was +15k contracts; between 2000 and 2010 it was +61k contracts; and the market has not been net short crude oil since 2003.

 

Looking at the more immediate-term, net length in NYMEX oil increased 13% w/w to +248k contracts for the week ended 8/7; that is the largest one-week gain since Feb ’12 and hedge funds are the most bullish they’ve been on crude oil in 3 months.

 

HEDGEYE ENERGY: OIL: PARSING THE PRICE ACTION  - 14

 


 

 

Kevin Kaiser

Analyst

 

 

 


 

 


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