• HEDGEYE’S MARKET BRIEF
    Our FREE Investing Newsletter
    Get Exclusive Summer Sale Discounts

    By joining our email marketing list you agree to receive marketing emails from Hedgeye. You may unsubscribe at any time by clicking the unsubscribe link in one of the emails. All Hedgeye products and services are subject to Hedgeye’s Terms of Service available at www.hedgeye.com/terms_of_service

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 16, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 19 points or -1.03% downside to 1391 and 0.32% upside to 1410. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

EQUITY SENTIMENT: 

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/15 NYSE 799
    • Increase versus the prior day’s trading of -41
  • VOLUME: on 08/15 NYSE 497.83
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -12.15%
  • VIX:  as of 08/15 was at 14.63
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -1.48%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -37.48%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/15 closed at 1.12
    • Down from the day prior at 1.52 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


10YR – talk about ripping; massive short-term rip in bond yields this week looks almost identical to the pace of gains in stocks vs bonds at the March highs; at 14-15 VIX, that was not the buy stocks signal; higher lows in bonds now as stocks make lower highs. 

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 35
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.81%
    • Decrease from prior day’s trading of 1.82%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.52
    • Down from prior day’s trading of 1.53 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 8:30am: Jobless Claims, Aug. 11, est. 365k (prior 361k)
  • 8:30am: Housing Starts, July, est. 756k (prior 760k)
  • 8:30am: Building Permits, July, est. 769k (prior 760k)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Aug. 12 (prior -41.9)
  • 10am: Philadelphia Fed., Aug., est. -5 (prior -12.9)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage
  • 10:30am: EIA Natural Gas
  • 8pm: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks on the Fed in Williston, N.D. 

GOVERNMENT:

    • House, Senate not in session
    • Paul Ryan attends campaign event in North Canton, Ohio. 9:55am

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • Lock-up on insider sales of Facebook expires
  • U.S. home construction probably held near 4-yr high
  • Verizon-cable agreement is said to win antitrust approval today
  • Apollo is said to seek up to $12b for flagship LBO fund
  • Spain said to speed EU bank bailout after collateral limits
  • U.K. retail sales unexpectedly rise as discounts boost fuel
  • Apple said to talk with cable industry about set-top TV devices
  • Dish is said to plan nationwide satellite broadband service
  • JPMorgan, Barclays said among banks to get N.Y. Libor subpoenas
  • Morgan Stanley unit fined over junior trader’s $1.3b bet
  • AMR’s American denied court approval to cancel pilot contract
  • Foreign direct investment in China fell to lowest level in 2 yrs in July
  • PepsiCo Gatorade Chief O’Hagan said to leave after sales revamp
  • Spotify, Pandora spur U.S. digital music sales past CD purchases
  • Pfizer’s experimental arthritis drug works in Ulcerative Colitis
  • Cisco 4Q adj. EPS, rev. top ests.; Applied Materials’ 4Q sales may miss est.

EARNINGS:

    • Soufun (SFUN) 5:45am, $0.41
    • Sears Holdings (SHLD) 6am, $(0.86)
    • Children’s Place (PLCE) 6:30am, $(0.66)
    • Buckle (BKE) 7am, $0.49
    • Cato (CATO) 7am, $0.57
    • Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) 7am, $1.17
    • Dollar Tree (DLTR) 7:30am, $0.47
    • Perrigo (PRGO) 8am, $1.27
    • GameStop (GME) 8:30am, $0.16
    • Ross Stores (ROST) 8:30am, $0.81
    • Gap (GPS) 4pm, $0.48
    • Aeropostale (ARO) 4:01pm, $0.01
    • Marvell Technology (MRVL) 4:02pm, $0.27
    • Brocade Communications Systems (BRCD) 4:05pm, $0.12
    • Avago (AVGO) 4:05pm, $0.66

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

OIL – ripping humanity a new one here w/ Brent Oil charging to $116/barrel; Oil is up +32% since June, but that’s not inflationary – take the government’s word for it while it continues to slow real (inflation adjusted) GDP growth.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – If you thought this week’s India Export reports (-15% y/y) was bad, take a peek at the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) print out of China at -9% y/y #awful; Chinese stocks down for 3rd day out of 4 on that this wk; media begs for stimuli.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team