TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 16, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 19 points or -1.03% downside to 1391 and 0.32% upside to 1410.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/15 NYSE 799
- Increase versus the prior day’s trading of -41
- VOLUME: on 08/15 NYSE 497.83
- Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -12.15%
- VIX: as of 08/15 was at 14.63
- Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -1.48%
- Year-to-date decrease of -37.48%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/15 closed at 1.12
- Down from the day prior at 1.52
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
10YR – talk about ripping; massive short-term rip in bond yields this week looks almost identical to the pace of gains in stocks vs bonds at the March highs; at 14-15 VIX, that was not the buy stocks signal; higher lows in bonds now as stocks make lower highs.
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 35
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.81%
- Decrease from prior day’s trading of 1.82%
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.52
- Down from prior day’s trading of 1.53
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)
- 8:30am: Jobless Claims, Aug. 11, est. 365k (prior 361k)
- 8:30am: Housing Starts, July, est. 756k (prior 760k)
- 8:30am: Building Permits, July, est. 769k (prior 760k)
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Aug. 12 (prior -41.9)
- 10am: Philadelphia Fed., Aug., est. -5 (prior -12.9)
- 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage
- 10:30am: EIA Natural Gas
- 8pm: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks on the Fed in Williston, N.D.
GOVERNMENT:
- House, Senate not in session
- Paul Ryan attends campaign event in North Canton, Ohio. 9:55am
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Lock-up on insider sales of Facebook expires
- U.S. home construction probably held near 4-yr high
- Verizon-cable agreement is said to win antitrust approval today
- Apollo is said to seek up to $12b for flagship LBO fund
- Spain said to speed EU bank bailout after collateral limits
- U.K. retail sales unexpectedly rise as discounts boost fuel
- Apple said to talk with cable industry about set-top TV devices
- Dish is said to plan nationwide satellite broadband service
- JPMorgan, Barclays said among banks to get N.Y. Libor subpoenas
- Morgan Stanley unit fined over junior trader’s $1.3b bet
- AMR’s American denied court approval to cancel pilot contract
- Foreign direct investment in China fell to lowest level in 2 yrs in July
- PepsiCo Gatorade Chief O’Hagan said to leave after sales revamp
- Spotify, Pandora spur U.S. digital music sales past CD purchases
- Pfizer’s experimental arthritis drug works in Ulcerative Colitis
- Cisco 4Q adj. EPS, rev. top ests.; Applied Materials’ 4Q sales may miss est.
EARNINGS:
- Soufun (SFUN) 5:45am, $0.41
- Sears Holdings (SHLD) 6am, $(0.86)
- Children’s Place (PLCE) 6:30am, $(0.66)
- Buckle (BKE) 7am, $0.49
- Cato (CATO) 7am, $0.57
- Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) 7am, $1.17
- Dollar Tree (DLTR) 7:30am, $0.47
- Perrigo (PRGO) 8am, $1.27
- GameStop (GME) 8:30am, $0.16
- Ross Stores (ROST) 8:30am, $0.81
- Gap (GPS) 4pm, $0.48
- Aeropostale (ARO) 4:01pm, $0.01
- Marvell Technology (MRVL) 4:02pm, $0.27
- Brocade Communications Systems (BRCD) 4:05pm, $0.12
- Avago (AVGO) 4:05pm, $0.66
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
OIL – ripping humanity a new one here w/ Brent Oil charging to $116/barrel; Oil is up +32% since June, but that’s not inflationary – take the government’s word for it while it continues to slow real (inflation adjusted) GDP growth.
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
CHINA – If you thought this week’s India Export reports (-15% y/y) was bad, take a peek at the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) print out of China at -9% y/y #awful; Chinese stocks down for 3rd day out of 4 on that this wk; media begs for stimuli.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team