THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 16, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 19 points or -1.03% downside to 1391 and 0.32% upside to 1410. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


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EQUITY SENTIMENT: 

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/15 NYSE 799
    • Increase versus the prior day’s trading of -41
  • VOLUME: on 08/15 NYSE 497.83
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -12.15%
  • VIX:  as of 08/15 was at 14.63
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -1.48%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -37.48%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/15 closed at 1.12
    • Down from the day prior at 1.52 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


10YR – talk about ripping; massive short-term rip in bond yields this week looks almost identical to the pace of gains in stocks vs bonds at the March highs; at 14-15 VIX, that was not the buy stocks signal; higher lows in bonds now as stocks make lower highs. 

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 35
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.81%
    • Decrease from prior day’s trading of 1.82%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.52
    • Down from prior day’s trading of 1.53 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 8:30am: Jobless Claims, Aug. 11, est. 365k (prior 361k)
  • 8:30am: Housing Starts, July, est. 756k (prior 760k)
  • 8:30am: Building Permits, July, est. 769k (prior 760k)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Aug. 12 (prior -41.9)
  • 10am: Philadelphia Fed., Aug., est. -5 (prior -12.9)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage
  • 10:30am: EIA Natural Gas
  • 8pm: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks on the Fed in Williston, N.D. 

GOVERNMENT:

    • House, Senate not in session
    • Paul Ryan attends campaign event in North Canton, Ohio. 9:55am

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • Lock-up on insider sales of Facebook expires
  • U.S. home construction probably held near 4-yr high
  • Verizon-cable agreement is said to win antitrust approval today
  • Apollo is said to seek up to $12b for flagship LBO fund
  • Spain said to speed EU bank bailout after collateral limits
  • U.K. retail sales unexpectedly rise as discounts boost fuel
  • Apple said to talk with cable industry about set-top TV devices
  • Dish is said to plan nationwide satellite broadband service
  • JPMorgan, Barclays said among banks to get N.Y. Libor subpoenas
  • Morgan Stanley unit fined over junior trader’s $1.3b bet
  • AMR’s American denied court approval to cancel pilot contract
  • Foreign direct investment in China fell to lowest level in 2 yrs in July
  • PepsiCo Gatorade Chief O’Hagan said to leave after sales revamp
  • Spotify, Pandora spur U.S. digital music sales past CD purchases
  • Pfizer’s experimental arthritis drug works in Ulcerative Colitis
  • Cisco 4Q adj. EPS, rev. top ests.; Applied Materials’ 4Q sales may miss est.

EARNINGS:

    • Soufun (SFUN) 5:45am, $0.41
    • Sears Holdings (SHLD) 6am, $(0.86)
    • Children’s Place (PLCE) 6:30am, $(0.66)
    • Buckle (BKE) 7am, $0.49
    • Cato (CATO) 7am, $0.57
    • Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) 7am, $1.17
    • Dollar Tree (DLTR) 7:30am, $0.47
    • Perrigo (PRGO) 8am, $1.27
    • GameStop (GME) 8:30am, $0.16
    • Ross Stores (ROST) 8:30am, $0.81
    • Gap (GPS) 4pm, $0.48
    • Aeropostale (ARO) 4:01pm, $0.01
    • Marvell Technology (MRVL) 4:02pm, $0.27
    • Brocade Communications Systems (BRCD) 4:05pm, $0.12
    • Avago (AVGO) 4:05pm, $0.66

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

OIL – ripping humanity a new one here w/ Brent Oil charging to $116/barrel; Oil is up +32% since June, but that’s not inflationary – take the government’s word for it while it continues to slow real (inflation adjusted) GDP growth.

 

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CURRENCIES

 

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EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

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ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – If you thought this week’s India Export reports (-15% y/y) was bad, take a peek at the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) print out of China at -9% y/y #awful; Chinese stocks down for 3rd day out of 4 on that this wk; media begs for stimuli.

 

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team