TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 15, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 10 points or -0.56% downside to 1396 and 0.15% upside to 1406.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/14 NYSE -41
- Increase versus the prior day’s trading of -799
- VOLUME: on 08/14 NYSE 566.69
- Increase versus prior day’s trading of 17.07%
- VIX: as of 08/14 was at 14.85
- Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 8.39%
- Year-to-date decrease of -36.54%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/14 closed at 1.87
- Up from the day prior at 1.54
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
QE – Gold doesn’t like this Romney/Ryan ticket calling the “Feds Qe as inflation risk”; USD stabilizing at TREND line 81.68 support as Gold fails again at 1624 TREND resistance; 10yr bond yields put on one heck of a move too; imagine life without Bernanke leaning on the curve…
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 33
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.11%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.76%
- Increased from prior day’s trading of 1.74%
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.48
- Up from prior day’s trading of 1.46
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)
- 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Aug. 10 (prior -1.8%)
- 8:30am: Consumer Price Index M/m, July, est. 0.2% (prior 0.0%)
- 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, Aug., est. 7 (prior 7.39)
- 9am: Total Net TIC Flows, June (prior $101.7b)
- 9:15am: Industrial Production, July, est. 0.5% (prior 0.4%)
- 9:15am: Capacity Utilization, July, est. 79.2% (prior 78.9%)
- 9:15am: Manufacturing (SIC) Production, July, est. 0.5%, (prior 0.7%)
- 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, Aug., est. 35 (prior 35)
- 10:30am: DOE inventories
- 11am: Fed to sell $7b-$8b notes due 9/15/14-4/30/15
- 8pm: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks on the Fed in Minot, North Dakota
GOVERNMENT:
- House, Senate not in session
- First Lady Michelle Obama joins President Obama for campaign events in Dubuque, Davenport, Iowa
- Paul Ryan attends campaign event in Oxford, Ohio. 6pm
- HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius makes Affordable Care Act announcement in Jacksonville, Fla. 11:30am
- NLRB holds closed meeting on unfair labor practices. 2:30pm
- Thompson edges out Hovde in Wisconsin Republican Senate primary
WHAT TO WATCH:
- U.S. consumer prices probably rose for 1st time since March, forecast 0.2% gain in CPI
- Retailers to start payments network to take on Google: WSJ
- Standard Chartered rises, pays $340m to settle a N.Y. money laundering probe
- Australia to become 1st nation to require cigarettes to be sold in uniform packages; watch Philip Morris International
- Soros, Cohen’s SAC, Moore among Facebook holders at June end
- Berkshire adds National Oilwell, cuts P&G stake
- Ackman’s Pershing sells Kraft to buy stake in P&G
- Moore leads funds avoiding “dead money” in JPMorgan sales
- Carlyle Group said to be leading bidder to buy Getty Images
- Facebook testing service to include more ads in user news feeds
- Forest Labs holders vote on Icahn nominees at annual meeting
- Credit-card delinquencies, charge-offs to be released
- BMW’s U.S. sales queried after July 31 “discount day": WSJ
- Samsung witness says Apple knew of his ‘‘tablet’’ long before iPad
- MSCI index quarterly rebalancing
EARNINGS
- Staples (SPLS) 6am, $0.22
- Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) 7am, $0.17
- Deere (DE) 7am, $2.32
- Target (TGT) 7:30am, $1.01
- NetApp (NTAP) 4pm, $0.38
- PetSmart (PETM) 4:02pm, $0.66
- Agilent Technologies (A) 4:05pm, $0.83
- Applied Materials (AMAT) 4:05pm, $0.22
- CACI International (CACI) 4:05pm, $1.50
- Cisco Systems (CSCO) 4:05pm, $0.46
- Ltd Brands (LTD) 4:30pm, $0.48
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
COPPER – the Doctor has been prescribing the same economic message throughout this 6 wk no volume squeeze in everything equities; no support to $3.30/lb; if/when that snaps, copper could go a lot lower on fundamentals (Chinese, German, US demand).
- Paulson Steps Up Gold Bet to 44% of Hedge Fund’s Equity Assets
- Rusal Beating Metal as Near-Record Reserves Elusive: Commodities
- Oil Declines in New York Amid Signs of Increasing U.S. Supplies
- China’s Corn Harvest Set for Smaller Increase on Pest Attack
- Soybeans Rise on Signs Demand Remains Robust After Record Rally
- Gold Seen Declining in London on Reduced Fed Stimulus Outlook
- Copper Seen Falling as China May Struggle to Sustain Growth Pace
- Wilmar Falls After Posting 70% Profit Drop: Singapore Mover
- Cocoa Climbs on Speculation El Nino Is Developing; Sugar Rises
- Palm Oil Drops as Output Gains Set to Boost Malaysian Reserves
- Hermes Sees Crops Extending Gains From Record on Lower Supply
- Cotton Set to Climb 9% as China May Absorb Global Surplus
- Aluminum Premiums Set to Extend Gains as Buyers Wait for Metal
- Natural Gas Futures Decline After Rebounding From Six-Week Low
- China Said to Ask Cooking-Oil Suppliers to Report Prices
- Paulson, Soros Add to Gold Hoard as Prices Drop Most Since 2008
- China Nickel Pig Iron Makers Cut Output by Half as Prices Slump
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
CHINA – headline media “news” last wk was don’t worry about the economic data (#GrowthSlowing) because China is going to cut rates and provide stimuli – reality: PBOC says no on both ($114 Brent Oil crushes consumption), and Chinese stocks are down -2% this wk.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team