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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 15, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 10 points or -0.56% downside to 1396 and 0.15% upside to 1406. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT: 

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/14 NYSE -41
    • Increase versus the prior day’s trading of -799
  • VOLUME: on 08/14 NYSE 566.69
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 17.07%
  • VIX:  as of 08/14 was at 14.85
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 8.39%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -36.54%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/14 closed at 1.87
    • Up from the day prior at 1.54 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


QE – Gold doesn’t like this Romney/Ryan ticket calling the “Feds Qe as inflation risk”; USD stabilizing at TREND line 81.68 support as Gold fails again at 1624 TREND resistance; 10yr bond yields put on one heck of a move too; imagine life without Bernanke leaning on the curve… 

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 33
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.11%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.76%
    • Increased from prior day’s trading of 1.74%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.48
    • Up from prior day’s trading of 1.46 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Aug. 10 (prior -1.8%)
  • 8:30am: Consumer Price Index M/m, July, est. 0.2% (prior 0.0%)
  • 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, Aug., est. 7 (prior 7.39)
  • 9am: Total Net TIC Flows, June (prior $101.7b)
  • 9:15am: Industrial Production, July, est. 0.5% (prior 0.4%)
  • 9:15am: Capacity Utilization, July, est. 79.2% (prior 78.9%)
  • 9:15am: Manufacturing (SIC) Production, July, est. 0.5%, (prior 0.7%)
  • 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, Aug., est. 35 (prior 35)
  • 10:30am: DOE inventories
  • 11am: Fed to sell $7b-$8b notes due 9/15/14-4/30/15
  • 8pm: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks on the Fed in Minot, North Dakota

GOVERNMENT:

    • House, Senate not in session
    • First Lady Michelle Obama joins President Obama for campaign events in Dubuque, Davenport, Iowa
    • Paul Ryan attends campaign event in Oxford, Ohio. 6pm
    • HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius makes Affordable Care Act announcement in Jacksonville, Fla. 11:30am
    • NLRB holds closed meeting on unfair labor practices. 2:30pm
    • Thompson edges out Hovde in Wisconsin Republican Senate primary 

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • U.S. consumer prices probably rose for 1st time since March, forecast 0.2% gain in CPI
  • Retailers to start payments network to take on Google: WSJ
  • Standard Chartered rises, pays $340m to settle a N.Y. money laundering probe
  • Australia to become 1st nation to require cigarettes to be sold in uniform packages; watch Philip Morris International
  • Soros, Cohen’s SAC, Moore among Facebook holders at June end
  • Berkshire adds National Oilwell, cuts P&G stake
  • Ackman’s Pershing sells Kraft to buy stake in P&G
  • Moore leads funds avoiding “dead money” in JPMorgan sales
  • Carlyle Group said to be leading bidder to buy Getty Images
  • Facebook testing service to include more ads in user news feeds
  • Forest Labs holders vote on Icahn nominees at annual meeting
  • Credit-card delinquencies, charge-offs to be released
  • BMW’s U.S. sales queried after July 31 “discount day": WSJ
  • Samsung witness says Apple knew of his ‘‘tablet’’ long before iPad
  • MSCI index quarterly rebalancing

EARNINGS

    • Staples (SPLS) 6am, $0.22
    • Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) 7am, $0.17
    • Deere (DE) 7am, $2.32
    • Target (TGT) 7:30am, $1.01
    • NetApp (NTAP) 4pm, $0.38
    • PetSmart (PETM) 4:02pm, $0.66
    • Agilent Technologies (A) 4:05pm, $0.83
    • Applied Materials (AMAT) 4:05pm, $0.22
    • CACI International (CACI) 4:05pm, $1.50
    • Cisco Systems (CSCO) 4:05pm, $0.46
    • Ltd Brands (LTD) 4:30pm, $0.48

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

COPPER – the Doctor has been prescribing the same economic message throughout this 6 wk no volume squeeze in everything equities; no support to $3.30/lb; if/when that snaps, copper could go a lot lower on fundamentals (Chinese, German, US demand). 

  • Paulson Steps Up Gold Bet to 44% of Hedge Fund’s Equity Assets
  • Rusal Beating Metal as Near-Record Reserves Elusive: Commodities
  • Oil Declines in New York Amid Signs of Increasing U.S. Supplies
  • China’s Corn Harvest Set for Smaller Increase on Pest Attack
  • Soybeans Rise on Signs Demand Remains Robust After Record Rally
  • Gold Seen Declining in London on Reduced Fed Stimulus Outlook
  • Copper Seen Falling as China May Struggle to Sustain Growth Pace
  • Wilmar Falls After Posting 70% Profit Drop: Singapore Mover
  • Cocoa Climbs on Speculation El Nino Is Developing; Sugar Rises
  • Palm Oil Drops as Output Gains Set to Boost Malaysian Reserves
  • Hermes Sees Crops Extending Gains From Record on Lower Supply
  • Cotton Set to Climb 9% as China May Absorb Global Surplus
  • Aluminum Premiums Set to Extend Gains as Buyers Wait for Metal
  • Natural Gas Futures Decline After Rebounding From Six-Week Low
  • China Said to Ask Cooking-Oil Suppliers to Report Prices
  • Paulson, Soros Add to Gold Hoard as Prices Drop Most Since 2008
  • China Nickel Pig Iron Makers Cut Output by Half as Prices Slump

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES

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EUROPEAN MARKETS

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – headline media “news” last wk was don’t worry about the economic data (#GrowthSlowing) because China is going to cut rates and provide stimuli – reality: PBOC says no on both ($114 Brent Oil crushes consumption), and Chinese stocks are down -2% this wk.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team