THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 15, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 10 points or -0.56% downside to 1396 and 0.15% upside to 1406. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT: 

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/14 NYSE -41
    • Increase versus the prior day’s trading of -799
  • VOLUME: on 08/14 NYSE 566.69
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 17.07%
  • VIX:  as of 08/14 was at 14.85
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 8.39%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -36.54%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/14 closed at 1.87
    • Up from the day prior at 1.54 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


QE – Gold doesn’t like this Romney/Ryan ticket calling the “Feds Qe as inflation risk”; USD stabilizing at TREND line 81.68 support as Gold fails again at 1624 TREND resistance; 10yr bond yields put on one heck of a move too; imagine life without Bernanke leaning on the curve… 

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 33
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.11%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.76%
    • Increased from prior day’s trading of 1.74%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.48
    • Up from prior day’s trading of 1.46 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Aug. 10 (prior -1.8%)
  • 8:30am: Consumer Price Index M/m, July, est. 0.2% (prior 0.0%)
  • 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, Aug., est. 7 (prior 7.39)
  • 9am: Total Net TIC Flows, June (prior $101.7b)
  • 9:15am: Industrial Production, July, est. 0.5% (prior 0.4%)
  • 9:15am: Capacity Utilization, July, est. 79.2% (prior 78.9%)
  • 9:15am: Manufacturing (SIC) Production, July, est. 0.5%, (prior 0.7%)
  • 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, Aug., est. 35 (prior 35)
  • 10:30am: DOE inventories
  • 11am: Fed to sell $7b-$8b notes due 9/15/14-4/30/15
  • 8pm: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks on the Fed in Minot, North Dakota

GOVERNMENT:

    • House, Senate not in session
    • First Lady Michelle Obama joins President Obama for campaign events in Dubuque, Davenport, Iowa
    • Paul Ryan attends campaign event in Oxford, Ohio. 6pm
    • HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius makes Affordable Care Act announcement in Jacksonville, Fla. 11:30am
    • NLRB holds closed meeting on unfair labor practices. 2:30pm
    • Thompson edges out Hovde in Wisconsin Republican Senate primary 

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • U.S. consumer prices probably rose for 1st time since March, forecast 0.2% gain in CPI
  • Retailers to start payments network to take on Google: WSJ
  • Standard Chartered rises, pays $340m to settle a N.Y. money laundering probe
  • Australia to become 1st nation to require cigarettes to be sold in uniform packages; watch Philip Morris International
  • Soros, Cohen’s SAC, Moore among Facebook holders at June end
  • Berkshire adds National Oilwell, cuts P&G stake
  • Ackman’s Pershing sells Kraft to buy stake in P&G
  • Moore leads funds avoiding “dead money” in JPMorgan sales
  • Carlyle Group said to be leading bidder to buy Getty Images
  • Facebook testing service to include more ads in user news feeds
  • Forest Labs holders vote on Icahn nominees at annual meeting
  • Credit-card delinquencies, charge-offs to be released
  • BMW’s U.S. sales queried after July 31 “discount day": WSJ
  • Samsung witness says Apple knew of his ‘‘tablet’’ long before iPad
  • MSCI index quarterly rebalancing

EARNINGS

    • Staples (SPLS) 6am, $0.22
    • Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) 7am, $0.17
    • Deere (DE) 7am, $2.32
    • Target (TGT) 7:30am, $1.01
    • NetApp (NTAP) 4pm, $0.38
    • PetSmart (PETM) 4:02pm, $0.66
    • Agilent Technologies (A) 4:05pm, $0.83
    • Applied Materials (AMAT) 4:05pm, $0.22
    • CACI International (CACI) 4:05pm, $1.50
    • Cisco Systems (CSCO) 4:05pm, $0.46
    • Ltd Brands (LTD) 4:30pm, $0.48

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

COPPER – the Doctor has been prescribing the same economic message throughout this 6 wk no volume squeeze in everything equities; no support to $3.30/lb; if/when that snaps, copper could go a lot lower on fundamentals (Chinese, German, US demand). 

  • Paulson Steps Up Gold Bet to 44% of Hedge Fund’s Equity Assets
  • Rusal Beating Metal as Near-Record Reserves Elusive: Commodities
  • Oil Declines in New York Amid Signs of Increasing U.S. Supplies
  • China’s Corn Harvest Set for Smaller Increase on Pest Attack
  • Soybeans Rise on Signs Demand Remains Robust After Record Rally
  • Gold Seen Declining in London on Reduced Fed Stimulus Outlook
  • Copper Seen Falling as China May Struggle to Sustain Growth Pace
  • Wilmar Falls After Posting 70% Profit Drop: Singapore Mover
  • Cocoa Climbs on Speculation El Nino Is Developing; Sugar Rises
  • Palm Oil Drops as Output Gains Set to Boost Malaysian Reserves
  • Hermes Sees Crops Extending Gains From Record on Lower Supply
  • Cotton Set to Climb 9% as China May Absorb Global Surplus
  • Aluminum Premiums Set to Extend Gains as Buyers Wait for Metal
  • Natural Gas Futures Decline After Rebounding From Six-Week Low
  • China Said to Ask Cooking-Oil Suppliers to Report Prices
  • Paulson, Soros Add to Gold Hoard as Prices Drop Most Since 2008
  • China Nickel Pig Iron Makers Cut Output by Half as Prices Slump

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – headline media “news” last wk was don’t worry about the economic data (#GrowthSlowing) because China is going to cut rates and provide stimuli – reality: PBOC says no on both ($114 Brent Oil crushes consumption), and Chinese stocks are down -2% this wk.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more