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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 13, 2012

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 17 points or -1.13% downside to 1390 and 0.08% upside to 1407. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1a

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

EQUITY SENTIMENT: 

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/10 NYSE 195
    • Down versus the prior day’s trading of 300
  • VOLUME: on 08/10 NYSE 566.08
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -1.68%
  • VIX:  as of 08/10 was at 14.74
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -3.53%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -37.01%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/10 closed at 1.64
    • Down from the day prior at 1.82 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 33
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.66%
    • Unchanged from prior day’s trading
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.40
    • Unchanged from prior day’s trading 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 11am: Fed to purchase $1.5b-2b notes due 2/15/36-5/14/42
  • 11am: U.S. Treasury announces plans for auction of 4-wk bills
  • 11:30 am: U.S. to sell $32b 3-mo. bills, $28b 6-mo. bills
  • 4pm: USDA weekly crop condition 

GOVERNMENT/POLITICS:

    • House, Senate in recess
    • President Obama begins three-day bus tour through Iowa
    • State primary elections in Minn., Conn., Fla., Wis.
    • EPA advisory panel meets on methods for estimating emissions from animal feeding operations. 1pm

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • Google said to cut ~4k employees in its Motorola unit
  • Standard Chartered said to work on New York’s monitor demand
  • Julius Baer agreed to pay $880m for Bank of Americas Merrill wealth management business outside U.S.
  • Electronic Arts sees new Windows as central mobile game platform
  • Peltz said to win board seat at Ingersoll-Rand, WSJ says
  • Japan 2Q GDP rose annaulized 1.4%, less than median forecast 2.3% growth and 5.5% in 1Q
  • Greece 2Q GDP contracted 6.2%
  • “Bourne Legacy” tops weekend NA box office with $40.3m
  • Quarterly mutual fund/hedge fund disclosure deadline this week
  • Mitt Romney picks Paul Ryan as running mate for Republican ticket
  • NBC says weekday daytime Olympic viewership a record, Up 31%
  • Guggenheim Partners in talks to buy Aviva stake: Telegraph
  • Kodak is scheduled to disclose in bankruptcy court the winners of an auction of >1k patents
  • Tech cos. spend more on fewer acquisitions: PwC
  • Egypt President Mursi removes military aides
  • Europe GDP, Standard Chartered, Wal-Mart: Week Ahead Aug. 13-18

EARNINGS:

    • Sysco (SYY) 8am, $0.54
    • AuRico Gold (AUQ CN) Pre-Mkt, $0.09
    • Groupon (GRPN) 4:01pm, $0.03
    • Wuxi PharmaTech (WX) 4:30pm, $0.32
    • Uranium One (UUU CN) 4:37pm, $0.02
    • InterOil (IOC) 4:45pm, $0.06
    • SouthGobi (SGQ CN) 5pm, $(0.04)
    • Iamgold (IMG CN) 5:40pm, $0.20
    • B2Gold (BTO CN) Post-Mkt, $0.04

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG) 

  • Hedge Funds Reduce Wagers After Longest-Ever Rally: Commodities
  • Oil Bulls Boost Bets Most in More Than 17 Months: Energy Markets
  • Copper Declines in New York as Japanese Growth Misses Estimates
  • Oil Advances Amid Concern Middle East Tensions May Curb Supply
  • Corn, Soybeans Fall as Rain May Aid U.S. Crop Amid Demand Threat
  • Iron Ore Drops to Lowest Since 2009 as Chinese Purchases Decline
  • Gold Gains on Stimulus Bets as Holdings Climb to All-Time High
  • Robusta Coffee Rises as Stockpiles Decline Further; Cocoa Climbs
  • China Daily Steel Output Falls in July as Prices at 33-Month Low
  • Cooking-Oil Imports by India to Decline on Record Stockpiles
  • Rubber Drops to Lowest in Almost Three Years on Slowing Growth
  • Noble Profit Rises 39 Percent on Record Metals, Energy Sales
  • Japan’s Utilities Lose $46 Billion as End of Era Nears: Energy
  • Obama to Urge Agriculture Bill as USDA Buys $170 Million of Meat
  • Palm Oil Declines on Increasing Output, Weak El Nino Forecasts 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4f

CURRENCIES


USD – on the margin, Paul Ryan is USD bullish – not only will he likely keep Bernanke in a box through September (no Qe), but he’ll bring some much needed focus to the fiscal debate pre debt-ceiling. If intermediate-term TREND support of $81.79 on the USD holds, a whole whack of correlation risk comes back online 2H AUG and into September.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5f

EUROPEAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 


ASIAN MARKETS


JAPAN – another big country w/ another big miss on the #1 factor that we think will continue to surprise these Keynesian quacks on the downside in the coming months and years – GROWTH; in other Asian Equity news, Chinese stocks fell another 1.5% after not delivering any said stimuli that the media was calling for last wk.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


ISRAEL – something is going on; not sure what it is – but the TelAviv25 just snapped its only line of TRADE support, down 1% this morning and Oil is ripping (+1% to $114 Brent), despite the Dollar not being down a bunch. Geopolitical risk is hard to put our finger on, so we let markets tell us when someone might know something.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team