TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 10, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 17 points or -1.06% downside to 1388 and 0.16% upside to 1405.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/09 NYSE 300
- Up versus the prior day’s trading of 62
- VOLUME: on 08/09 NYSE 575.75
- Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -9.56%
- VIX: as of 08/09 was at 15.28
- Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -0.26%
- Year-to-date decrease of -34.70%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/09 closed at 1.82
- Up from the day prior at 1.52
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 34
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.11%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.64%
- Decrease from prior day’s trading of 1.69%
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.38
- Down from prior day’s trading at 1.42
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)
- 8:30am: Import Price Index (M/m), July, est. 0.2% (prior -2.7%)
- 8:30am: USDA crop forecast
- 11am: U.S. Fed to sell $7b-$8b notes in 7/15/2013 to 1/31/2014 range
- 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count
- 2pm: Monthly Budget Statement, July, est. -$93b
GOVERNMENT/POLITICS:
- House, Senate not in session
- CFTC holds closed meeting on enforcement matters, 10am
- NOAA Acting Deputy Director Tracy Dunn, Greenpeace campaigner Phil Kline discuss U.S. ocean, coastal law enforcement at Environmental Law Institute, 12pm
WHAT TO WATCH:
- U.S. won’t prosecute Goldman Sachs, employees over CDO deals
- Yahoo strategy review may result in changes to cash plans
- RIM said to draw interest from IBM on enterprise-svcs unit
- Corn near record as USDA to report on drought damage
- Manchester United raises $233m as IPO prices below range
- RBA highlights currency risk as 2012 growth forecast raised
- Standard Chartered’s fitness is key grounds on shutdown decision in N.Y. law, not laundering
- Knight says it may suffer more losses from trading error
- Knight Investors face funding options with Hotspot, Direct Edge
- WellPoint CEO faces ire of investor who says she must go
- Citigroup offers to buy back bonds in plan to use “excess cash”
- China export growth collapses as World recovery slows
- Hong Kong economy grows at close to slowest pace in 3 years
- Gold bulls strengthen on outlook for more stimulus
EARNINGS:
- Calfrac Well Services (CFW CN) 6am, C$(0.046)
- Enerplus (ERF CN) 6am, C$(0.02)
- J.C. Penney (JCP) 6am
- ioCan REIT (REI-U CN) 7am, C$0.37
- Rentech Nitrogen Partners (RNF) 7am, $0.98
- Brookfield Asset Management (BAM/A CN) 7:06am
- Harman International (HAR) 7:30am, $0.64
- Celtic Exploration (CLT CN) 8am, C$(0.14)
- Emera (EMA CN) 12:30pm, C$0.27
- Pengrowth Energy (PGF CN) Post-Mkt, C$(0.04)
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
COPPER – the Doctor sees this Chinese slowdown for what it is – too big to bail. Copper fails fast at 3.43 TRADE resistance, down -1.2% this morning; CRB Index fails at my TAIL risk line of 307.
- Rig Shortage Means Record $4.5 Billion Blowout Binge: Energy
- Sugar Poised for Two-Year Low After Rains Ease: Chart of the Day
- Cocoa Poised for Rally as Investor Bets Climb: Chart of the Day
- Gold Bulls Strengthen on Outlook for More Stimulus: Commodities
- Corn Advances to Record as USDA Set to Report on Drought Damage
- Oil Pares Weekly Gain on China, IEA Sees Demand Growth Slowing
- Gold Declines With Stocks, Euro as China Data Tempers Risk Mood
- Copper Drops as China Export Collapse Adds to Slowdown Signs
- Sugar Rises as India’s Set to Import From Brazil; Cocoa Advances
- Oil May Rise on Refinery Runs, Middle East Tension, Survey Shows
- Sugar Output in India Set to Fall on Dry Weather, Kingsman Says
- China Soybean Imports Gain for Fifth Month Even as Prices Soar
- China’s Iron Ore Imports Drop to 3-Month Low on Falling Prices
- India’s Green-Energy Providers May Struggle After Power Blackout
- Rises to Record on U.S. Drought Damage
- Oil-Equities Link Nears Record as Stimulus Looms: Energy Markets
- India to Import Sugar From Brazil on Dryness, White Premium
CURRENCIES
EURO – snapping my 1.23 TRADE line again; that puts a boat load of correlation risk back in play, at lower-highs, for a lot of big beta trades (stocks and commodities).
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
CHINA – exports falling like hot knife through butter, but do not worry – bailouts coming, allegedly. No stimuli announced overnight; both Chinese and Japanese stocks fail at big TRADE and TREND lines of resistance, respectively.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team