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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 10, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 17 points or -1.06% downside to 1388 and 0.16% upside to 1405. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2a

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

EQUITY SENTIMENT: 

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/09 NYSE 300
    • Up versus the prior day’s trading of 62
  • VOLUME: on 08/09 NYSE 575.75
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -9.56%
  • VIX:  as of 08/09 was at 15.28
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -0.26%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -34.70%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/09 closed at 1.82
    • Up from the day prior at 1.52 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 34
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.11%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.64%
    • Decrease from prior day’s trading of 1.69%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.38
    • Down from prior day’s trading at 1.42 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 8:30am: Import Price Index (M/m), July, est. 0.2% (prior -2.7%)
  • 8:30am: USDA crop forecast
  • 11am: U.S. Fed to sell $7b-$8b notes in 7/15/2013 to 1/31/2014 range
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count
  • 2pm: Monthly Budget Statement, July, est. -$93b 

 GOVERNMENT/POLITICS:

    • House, Senate not in session
    • CFTC holds closed meeting on enforcement matters, 10am
    • NOAA Acting Deputy Director Tracy Dunn, Greenpeace campaigner Phil Kline discuss U.S. ocean, coastal law enforcement at Environmental Law Institute, 12pm 

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • U.S. won’t prosecute Goldman Sachs, employees over CDO deals
  • Yahoo strategy review may result in changes to cash plans
  • RIM said to draw interest from IBM on enterprise-svcs unit
  • Corn near record as USDA to report on drought damage
  • Manchester United raises $233m as IPO prices below range
  • RBA highlights currency risk as 2012 growth forecast raised
  • Standard Chartered’s fitness is key grounds on shutdown decision in N.Y. law, not laundering
  • Knight says it may suffer more losses from trading error
  • Knight Investors face funding options with Hotspot, Direct Edge
  • WellPoint CEO faces ire of investor who says she must go
  • Citigroup offers to buy back bonds in plan to use “excess cash”
  • China export growth collapses as World recovery slows
  • Hong Kong economy grows at close to slowest pace in 3 years
  • Gold bulls strengthen on outlook for more stimulus    

EARNINGS:

    • Calfrac Well Services (CFW CN) 6am, C$(0.046)
    • Enerplus (ERF CN) 6am, C$(0.02)
    • J.C. Penney (JCP) 6am
    • ioCan REIT (REI-U CN) 7am, C$0.37
    • Rentech Nitrogen Partners (RNF) 7am, $0.98
    • Brookfield Asset Management (BAM/A CN) 7:06am
    • Harman International (HAR) 7:30am, $0.64
    • Celtic Exploration (CLT CN) 8am, C$(0.14)
    • Emera (EMA CN) 12:30pm, C$0.27
    • Pengrowth Energy (PGF CN) Post-Mkt, C$(0.04) 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

COPPER – the Doctor sees this Chinese slowdown for what it is – too big to bail. Copper fails fast at 3.43 TRADE resistance, down -1.2% this morning; CRB Index fails at my TAIL risk line of 307. 

  • Rig Shortage Means Record $4.5 Billion Blowout Binge: Energy
  • Sugar Poised for Two-Year Low After Rains Ease: Chart of the Day
  • Cocoa Poised for Rally as Investor Bets Climb: Chart of the Day
  • Gold Bulls Strengthen on Outlook for More Stimulus: Commodities
  • Corn Advances to Record as USDA Set to Report on Drought Damage
  • Oil Pares Weekly Gain on China, IEA Sees Demand Growth Slowing
  • Gold Declines With Stocks, Euro as China Data Tempers Risk Mood
  • Copper Drops as China Export Collapse Adds to Slowdown Signs
  • Sugar Rises as India’s Set to Import From Brazil; Cocoa Advances
  • Oil May Rise on Refinery Runs, Middle East Tension, Survey Shows
  • Sugar Output in India Set to Fall on Dry Weather, Kingsman Says
  • China Soybean Imports Gain for Fifth Month Even as Prices Soar
  • China’s Iron Ore Imports Drop to 3-Month Low on Falling Prices
  • India’s Green-Energy Providers May Struggle After Power Blackout
  • Rises to Record on U.S. Drought Damage
  • Oil-Equities Link Nears Record as Stimulus Looms: Energy Markets
  • India to Import Sugar From Brazil on Dryness, White Premium 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES


EURO – snapping my 1.23 TRADE line again; that puts a boat load of correlation risk back in play, at lower-highs, for a lot of big beta trades (stocks and commodities).

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – exports falling like hot knife through butter, but do not worry – bailouts coming, allegedly. No stimuli announced overnight; both Chinese and Japanese stocks fail at big TRADE and TREND lines of resistance, respectively.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team