TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 9, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 22 points or -1.16% downside to 1386 and 0.41% upside to 1408.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/08 NYSE 62
- Down versus the prior day’s trading of 888
- VOLUME: on 08/08 NYSE 636.63
- Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -12.54%
- VIX: as of 08/08 was at 15.32
- Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -4.19%
- Year-to-date decrease of -34.53%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/08 closed at 1.52
- Up from the day prior at 1.33
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
10YR – this has happened plenty of times in 2012 – bonds down hard in 1-2wk moves, presenting you w/ a buying opp in bonds or 1 more chance to tell yourself this time is different and growth is not slowing. There’s a TREND wall of resistance for the 10yr at 1.71%.
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 33
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.11%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.68%
- Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.65%
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.40
- Up from prior day’s trading at 1.38
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)
- 8:30am: Trade Balance, June, est. -$47.5b (prior -$48.7b)
- 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, week Aug. 4, est. 370k (prior 365k)
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, week Aug. 5 (prior -39.7)
- 10am: Wholesale Inventories, June, est. 0.3% (prior 0.3%)
- 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
- 10:30am: EIA natural gas change
- 11am: U.S. Fed to purchase $1b-$1.5b TIPS in 1/15/2019 to 2/15/2042 range
- 1pm: U.S. to sell $16b 30-year bonds
GOVERNMENT/POLITICS:
- House, Senate not in session
- NOAA updates hurricane forecast. In May agency predicted near-normal season with from nine to 15 named storms, 11am
- Board of governors of U.S. Postal Service, which on Aug. 1 skipped a required $5.5b payment to U.S. Treasury, meets to discuss third-quarter financial results, 8:30am
- CFTC meets on customer protection requirements for futures commission merchants, 9:30am
- Commerce Dept. panel meets on technical questions that affect materials, technology export controls, 10am
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Trade Deficit in U.S. Probably Narrowed in June on Cheaper Oil
- Goldman Sachs Tops Corporate Split With Obama, GE Jilts Him Too
- Apple Patent Faceoff With HTC Pivots on Dueling Pinch Videos
- Profits at Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac May Ease Wind-Down Pressure
- Standard Chartered CEO Says ‘No Grounds’ to Revoke License
- Nokia to Sell App Unit Amid Increasing Microsoft Dependence
- U.S. foreclosure filings in July fell 10%: RealtyTrac
- Restaurant operator CKE expected to price IPO after close
- Amgen Halts Pancreatic Cancer Study After Drug Fails to Work
- Manchester United seeks to raise $333m in IPO
- U.K. Goods-Trade Deficit Widens to Record as Exports Decline
- World Food Prices Jump as U.S., Russia Droughts Spark Crop Rally
- China Adds Scope to Cut Rates as Japan, S. Korea Hold
EARNINGS:
- Bombardier (BBD/B CN) 6am, $0.10
- Manulife Financial (MFC CN) 6am, C$(0.49)
- Quebecor (QBR/B CN) 6am, C$0.97
- Kohl’s (KSS) 7am, $0.96
- Metro (MRU CN) 7am, C$1.36
- Elizabeth Arden (RDEN) 7am, $0.20
- Wendy’s (WEN) 7am, $0.05
- Windstream (WIN) 7am, $0.12
- Brinker International (EAT) 7:15am, $0.58
- Tim Hortons (THI CN) 7:30am, $0.69
- Hillshire Brands Co (HSH) 7:30am, $0.38
- AMC Networks (AMCX) 8am, $0.58
- Magna International (MG CN) 8am, $1.28
- Royal Gold (RGLD) 8am, $0.44
- Canadian Tire (CTC/A CN) 8:05am, C$1.52
- Advance Auto Parts (AAP) 8:30am, $1.39
- Teekay (TK) 8:30am, $(0.45)
- Teekay Offshore Partners (TOO) 8:30am, $0.37
- Crescent Point Energy (CPG CN) 9am, C$0.07
- Kronos Worldwide (KRO) Premkt, $0.44
- ViroPharma Inc (VPHM) Premkt, $0.21
- CI Financial (CIX CN) 11:17am, $0.32
- CareFusion (CFN) 4pm, $0.49
- DeVry (DV) 4:01pm, $0.44
- Open Text (OTC CN) 4:01pm, $1.16
- Nordstrom (JWN) 4:05pm, $0.74
- Fusion-io (FIO) 4:05pm, $0.04
- NVIDIA (NVDA) 4:19pm, $0.22
- Osisko Mining (OSK CN) 4:19pm, C$0.07
- Pembina Pipeline (PPL CN) 4:30pm, C$0.31
- ShawCor (SCL/A CN) 5:01pm, C$0.35
- Silver Wheaton (SLW CN) After-mkt, $0.37
- Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF) After-mkt, $0.18
- Assured Guaranty (AGO) After-mkt, $0.52
- Arena Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARNA) After-mkt, $(0.11)
- Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) After-Mkt, $1.99
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Global Food Reserves Falling as Drought Wilts Crops: Commodities
- Iraq Oil Tops 3 Million Barrels for First Time Since 2002
- Rubber Poised for Third Surplus in 2013, Helping Bridgestone
- Oil May Retreat on Fastest Stockpiling Since ’98: Energy Markets
- World Food Prices Jump as U.S., Russia Droughts Spark Crop Rally
- Corn Advances to Record as Drought Spurs Surge in Food Costs
- Gold Seen Advancing as Slowing Growth Fuels Stimulus Optimism
- Oil Trades Near Three-Month High Amid China Stimulus Speculation
- Sugar Rises on Speculation Prices Fell Too Far; Coffee Gains
- Copper Seen Falling on Weaker-Than-Estimated Chinese Production
- Rubber Near Lowest Level in Three Years Amid Supply Surplus
- Rusal Sees Aluminum Premiums Rising for 12-18 Months on Rates
- Europe’s Sugar Producers Set to Gain as EU Faces Third Shortage
- Palladium May Stall Near $608 Before Falling: Technical Analysis
- Food Prices Surge as Droughts Spark Rally
- Palm Oil Rallies From Seven-Week Low as U.S. Set to Cut Soy Crop
- Billionaire Fredriksen’s Golar Gets Record to Store LNG at Sea
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
GERMANY – again, news headlines running w/ “Europe up on China stimulus” (even though Europe is flat and Germany is down); watch the DAX here – German industrials hurting when Chinese demand continues to slow; lower-highs in the DAX from the 7154 high established in March. To get above that would require Draghi walking on water.
ASIAN MARKETS
CHINA – good thing pig prices collapsed in July, helping the Chinese print a completely random inflation reading in the face of slowing growth – bailout media took that as “another sign for stimulus”; China up a whopping +0.6%, India down on the day after missing industrial production growth too.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team