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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 9, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 22 points or -1.16% downside to 1386 and 0.41% upside to 1408. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

EQUITY SENTIMENT: 

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/08 NYSE 62
    • Down versus the prior day’s trading of 888
  • VOLUME: on 08/08 NYSE 636.63
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -12.54%
  • VIX:  as of 08/08 was at 15.32
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -4.19%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -34.53%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/08 closed at 1.52
    • Up from the day prior at 1.33 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


10YR – this has happened plenty of times in 2012 – bonds down hard in 1-2wk moves, presenting you w/ a buying opp in bonds or 1 more chance to tell yourself this time is different and growth is not slowing. There’s a TREND wall of resistance for the 10yr at 1.71%. 

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 33
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.11%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.68%
    • Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.65%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.40
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.38 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates) 

  • 8:30am: Trade Balance, June, est. -$47.5b (prior -$48.7b)
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, week Aug. 4, est. 370k (prior 365k)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, week Aug. 5 (prior -39.7)
  • 10am: Wholesale Inventories, June, est. 0.3% (prior 0.3%)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural gas change
  • 11am: U.S. Fed to purchase $1b-$1.5b TIPS in 1/15/2019 to 2/15/2042 range
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $16b 30-year bonds 

GOVERNMENT/POLITICS:

    • House, Senate not in session
    • NOAA updates hurricane forecast. In May agency predicted near-normal season with from nine to 15 named storms, 11am
    • Board of governors of U.S. Postal Service, which on Aug. 1 skipped a required $5.5b payment to U.S. Treasury, meets to discuss third-quarter financial results, 8:30am
    • CFTC meets on customer protection requirements for futures commission merchants, 9:30am
    • Commerce Dept. panel meets on technical questions that affect materials, technology export controls, 10am

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • Trade Deficit in U.S. Probably Narrowed in June on Cheaper Oil
  • Goldman Sachs Tops Corporate Split With Obama, GE Jilts Him Too
  • Apple Patent Faceoff With HTC Pivots on Dueling Pinch Videos
  • Profits at Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac May Ease Wind-Down Pressure
  • Standard Chartered CEO Says ‘No Grounds’ to Revoke License
  • Nokia to Sell App Unit Amid Increasing Microsoft Dependence
  • U.S. foreclosure filings in July fell 10%: RealtyTrac
  • Restaurant operator CKE expected to price IPO after close
  • Amgen Halts Pancreatic Cancer Study After Drug Fails to Work
  • Manchester United seeks to raise $333m in IPO
  • U.K. Goods-Trade Deficit Widens to Record as Exports Decline
  • World Food Prices Jump as U.S., Russia Droughts Spark Crop Rally
  • China Adds Scope to Cut Rates as Japan, S. Korea Hold

EARNINGS:

    • Bombardier (BBD/B CN) 6am, $0.10
    • Manulife Financial (MFC CN) 6am, C$(0.49)
    • Quebecor (QBR/B CN) 6am, C$0.97
    • Kohl’s (KSS) 7am, $0.96
    • Metro (MRU CN) 7am, C$1.36
    • Elizabeth Arden (RDEN) 7am, $0.20
    • Wendy’s (WEN) 7am, $0.05
    • Windstream (WIN) 7am, $0.12
    • Brinker International (EAT) 7:15am, $0.58
    • Tim Hortons (THI CN) 7:30am, $0.69
    • Hillshire Brands Co (HSH) 7:30am, $0.38
    • AMC Networks (AMCX) 8am, $0.58
    • Magna International (MG CN) 8am, $1.28
    • Royal Gold (RGLD) 8am, $0.44
    • Canadian Tire (CTC/A CN) 8:05am, C$1.52
    • Advance Auto Parts (AAP) 8:30am, $1.39
    • Teekay (TK) 8:30am, $(0.45)
    • Teekay Offshore Partners (TOO) 8:30am, $0.37
    • Crescent Point Energy (CPG CN) 9am, C$0.07
    • Kronos Worldwide (KRO) Premkt, $0.44
    • ViroPharma Inc (VPHM) Premkt, $0.21
    • CI Financial (CIX CN) 11:17am, $0.32
    • CareFusion (CFN) 4pm, $0.49
    • DeVry (DV) 4:01pm, $0.44
    • Open Text (OTC CN) 4:01pm, $1.16
    • Nordstrom (JWN) 4:05pm, $0.74
    • Fusion-io (FIO) 4:05pm, $0.04
    • NVIDIA (NVDA) 4:19pm, $0.22
    • Osisko Mining (OSK CN) 4:19pm, C$0.07
    • Pembina Pipeline (PPL CN) 4:30pm, C$0.31
    • ShawCor (SCL/A CN) 5:01pm, C$0.35
    • Silver Wheaton (SLW CN) After-mkt, $0.37
    • Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF) After-mkt, $0.18
    • Assured Guaranty (AGO) After-mkt, $0.52
    • Arena Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARNA) After-mkt, $(0.11)
    • Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) After-Mkt, $1.99 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Global Food Reserves Falling as Drought Wilts Crops: Commodities
  • Iraq Oil Tops 3 Million Barrels for First Time Since 2002
  • Rubber Poised for Third Surplus in 2013, Helping Bridgestone
  • Oil May Retreat on Fastest Stockpiling Since ’98: Energy Markets
  • World Food Prices Jump as U.S., Russia Droughts Spark Crop Rally
  • Corn Advances to Record as Drought Spurs Surge in Food Costs
  • Gold Seen Advancing as Slowing Growth Fuels Stimulus Optimism
  • Oil Trades Near Three-Month High Amid China Stimulus Speculation
  • Sugar Rises on Speculation Prices Fell Too Far; Coffee Gains
  • Copper Seen Falling on Weaker-Than-Estimated Chinese Production
  • Rubber Near Lowest Level in Three Years Amid Supply Surplus
  • Rusal Sees Aluminum Premiums Rising for 12-18 Months on Rates
  • Europe’s Sugar Producers Set to Gain as EU Faces Third Shortage
  • Palladium May Stall Near $608 Before Falling: Technical Analysis
  • Food Prices Surge as Droughts Spark Rally
  • Palm Oil Rallies From Seven-Week Low as U.S. Set to Cut Soy Crop
  • Billionaire Fredriksen’s Golar Gets Record to Store LNG at Sea 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


GERMANY – again, news headlines running w/ “Europe up on China stimulus” (even though Europe is flat and Germany is down); watch the DAX here – German industrials hurting when Chinese demand continues to slow; lower-highs in the DAX from the 7154 high established in March. To get above that would require Draghi walking on water.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – good thing pig prices collapsed in July, helping the Chinese print a completely random inflation reading in the face of slowing growth – bailout media took that as “another sign for stimulus”; China up a whopping +0.6%, India down on the day after missing industrial production growth too.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team