TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 8, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 26 points or -1.45% downside to 1381 and 0.40% upside to 1407.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
SENTIMENT – two beauty signals registering in the last 24hrs w/ the VIX testing long-term TAIL support (14-15) again and the II Bull/Bear Spread spikes back up to +1810bps wide to the bull side (Bears have been eviscerated from the spread, down to 25.5% vs 27.7% last wk). Big drawdowns in the last 5yrs happen after all the weak shorts have been squeezed out.
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/07 NYSE 888
- Up versus the prior day’s trading of 765
- VOLUME: on 08/07 NYSE 727.94
- Increase versus prior day’s trading of 12.48%
- VIX: as of 08/07 was at 15.99
- Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 0.25%
- Year-to-date decrease of -31.67%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/07 closed at 1.33
- Down from the day prior at 1.54
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 34
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.62%
- Decrease from prior day’s trading of 1.63%
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.36
- Down from prior day’s trading at 1.37
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)
- 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, week Aug. 3 (prior 0.2%)
- 8:30am: Nonfarm Productivity, 2Q P, est. 1.4% (prior -0.9%)
- 8:30am: Unit Labor Costs, 2Q P, est. 0.5% (prior 1.3%)
- 10:30am: DoE Inventories
- 11am: U.S. Fed to purchase $1.5b-$2b notes in 2/15/2036 to 5/15/2042 range
- 1pm: U.S. to sell $24b 10-year notes
GOVERNMENT/POLITICS:
- House, Senate not in session
- FDA advisory panel meets to discuss uses, limitations of in vitro dissolution testing, receive update on draft guidance for industry on biosimilars, 8am
- IRS holds meeting on proposed regulations, fees imposed by Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act on issuers, 10am
- International Trade Commission to vote on Ferrovanadium, Nitrided Vanadium imports from Russia, 1pm
- Air Line Pilots Association holds annual safety forum, 8:30am
WHAT TO WATCH:
- McDonald’s sales growth may be slowest since 2009
- Greece outlook revised to negative by S&P; ratings affirmed
- Disney profit rises 24% on “Avengers” as rev falls short
- Standard Chartered probe said to require up to $700m
- Knight Losses Spur Tighter Automated-Trading Rules From SEC
- J.C. Penney puts at record vs peers before earnings
- Ford expands into China heavy truck market with acquisition
- German exports fell in June as crisis curbed euro-area demand
- King seen cutting U.K. outlook as BOE stays open to stimulus
- Apple says Samsung document shows application icons copy IPhone
- Rio Tinto 1H net beats est.
- ING Groep 2Q net misses est.
EARNINGS:
- Lamar Advertising (LAMR) 6am, $0.15
- DISH Network (DISH) 6am, $0.66
- Air Canada (AC/A CN) 6am, C$(0.01)
- EchoStar (SATS) 6am, $0.08
- NRG Energy (NRG) 6:45am, $0.18
- PPL (PPL) 6:53am, $0.41
- Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) 7am, $(0.35)
- BCE (BCE CN) 7am, C$0.81
- International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF) 7am, $1.03
- Carlyle Group (CG) 7am, $(0.04)
- HollyFrontier (HFC) 7am, $2.24
- Molex (MOLX) 7:30am, $0.38
- Apollo Investment (AINV) 7:30am, $0.21
- Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP) 7:30am, $0.34
- Ralph Lauren (RL) 8am, $1.78
- Macy’s (M) 8am, $0.64; Preview
- Computer Sciences (CSC) 8:13am, $0.22
- Liberty Interactive (LINTA) 8:30am, $0.24
- Finning International (FTT CN) 8:55am, C$0.46
- Liberty Media - Liberty Capital (LMCA) 10:45am, $0.73
- Allscripts Healthcare Solutions (MDRX) 4pm, $0.18
- Onex (OCX CN) 4pm, NA
- MEMC Electronics (WFR) 4:01pm, ($0.04)
- Jack in the Box (JACK) 4:01pm, $0.35
- MBIA (MBI) 4:01pm, $0.07
- News Corp. (NWSA) 4:02pm, $0.32
- Monster Beverage (MNST) 4:05pm, $0.61
- Keyera (KEY CN) 4:05pm, $0.40
- Canaccord Financial (CF CN) 4:05pm, (C$0.04)
- Universal Display (PANL) 4:05pm, $0.25
- CenturyLink (CTL) 4:12pm, $0.62
- Dun & Bradstreet (DNB) 4:14pm, $1.43
- Kinross Gold (K CN) 4:15pm, $0.17
- Continental Resources (CLR) 4:15pm, $0.74
- Yamana Gold (YRI CN) 4:29pm, $0.21
- Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (CAR-U CN) 5:05pm, C$0.36
- Integrys Energy Group (TEG) 5:07pm, $0.41
- Sun Life Financial (SLF CN) 5:10pm, C$0.08
- Franco-Nevada (FNV CN) 5:15pm, $0.28
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
COPPER – the Doctor says he’s out; Copper testing its 1st duration of resistance (3.43 TRADE resistance) and failed this morning, moving lower by -0.7% after the 10yr UST yield backed off yesterday’s highs. Another #GrowthSlowing signal born out of $111 Oil.
- Coal to Drop as Steel Output Slows in BHP Setback: Commodities
- Gas May Revisit $2 as Drop in Supply Glut Slows: Energy Markets
- Clive Said to Miss July Commodities Rally as Brevan Gains
- Sugar Reserve in India at Four-Year High Set to Help Exports
- Rubber Tumbles to Lowest in Almost Three Years on Slowdown Risk
- Oil Drops From Two-Month High in New York as U.S. Demand Eases
- Soybeans, Corn Slide as Rain May Revive Drought-Stricken Crops
- Gold Declines in London as Stronger Dollar Curbs Investor Demand
- Copper Falls as Factory Report May Stoke Debt-Crisis Concern
- Sugar Falls to One-Month Low as Supplies Improve; Cocoa Climbs
- Electricity Seen Overstating China Slowdown as Services Rise
- Copper Traders Make $839 Million Bet on China Boosting Demand
- Alpha Posts $2.23 Billion Quarterly Loss After Taking Charges
- Gold in Euros Seen Climbing to All-Time High: Technical Analysis
- Commodities Daybook: Coal Set to Slump as European Demand Wanes
- Taiwan Sugar Buys 23,000 Tons Corn, 12,000 Tons Soybeans
- Zinc, Lead Traders Probably Added to Bets on Falling Prices
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
CHINA – Chinese stocks agree; after a paltry “rally” on no volume, the Shanghai Comp closed up, barely, +0.16% last night – but, more importantly, failed at an our immediate-term TRADE line of 2166 resistance; watching that and KOSPI, very closely here. Haven’t been short anything Asia on the meltup, thank god.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team
